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I'm going to stick my long neck on the line - England to win Euro 2012







Simster

"the man's an arse"
Jul 7, 2003
54,779
Surrey
It does seem I may have to concede your point about Greece in the face of evidence trumping my fairly woeful memory! But even so, that is just ONE "lucky" winner in however many tournaments since, say 1966. The overwhelming majority of tournaments are won by one of the top 3 or 4 teams at retaining possession and making their opponents chase the ball.

It kind of flies in the face that a team as average as England "might just win it". That's like saying Wigan "might just win" the title next season.
 


mejonaNO12 aka riskit

Well-known member
Dec 4, 2003
21,758
England
Greece won the semi final 1-0 (suprise suprise) with a silver goal against Czech.

Again, less possession, less shots, and scored from a corner.

So thats all the games covered Simster.

Total shots 9 16
Possession 48% 52%
 


mejonaNO12 aka riskit

Well-known member
Dec 4, 2003
21,758
England
It does seem I may have to concede your point about Greece in the face of evidence trumping my fairly woeful memory! But even so, that is just ONE "lucky" winner in however many tournaments since, say 1966. The overwhelming majority of tournaments are won by one of the top 3 or 4 teams at retaining possession and making their opponents chase the ball.

I feel harsh for posting that last bit of evidence now!
 


hans kraay fan club

The voice of reason.
Helpful Moderator
Mar 16, 2005
62,498
Chandlers Ford
It kind of flies in the face that a team as average as England "might just win it". That's like saying Wigan "might just win" the title next season.

No it isn't. It's like saying that Wigan "might just win" the FA Cup.
 




Simster

"the man's an arse"
Jul 7, 2003
54,779
Surrey
No it isn't. It's like saying that Wigan "might just win" the FA Cup.
But that analogy is also flawed because the Netherlands, Germany, France and Spain are all unlikely to rest their best players for certain matches in Euro 2012, unlike the big 5 or 6 clubs when they play certain FA Cup matches.
 


hans kraay fan club

The voice of reason.
Helpful Moderator
Mar 16, 2005
62,498
Chandlers Ford
But that analogy is also flawed because the Netherlands, Germany, France and Spain are all unlikely to rest their best players for certain matches in Euro 2012, unlike the big 5 or 6 clubs when they play certain FA Cup matches.

Its a HELL of a lot less flawed than comparing it to winning a 38 game league, where you have to play every one of the top teams twice.
 


Dominoid

Albion fan in Devon
Jan 6, 2011
557
Plymouth, United Kingdom
I think the honest truth is that under Hodgeson, we genuinely don't know what to expect. The team are definitely looking stronger so far, but it's only been a couple of friendlies so it's impossible to tell. I don't think there's been enough time to make a big enough difference for us to win it really, but I'd love to be proved wrong. That said, I entered a prediction competition at work and I've predicted us going out in the semi final to the Germans so I'm not brave enough to put any money on us doing hugely well.
 






Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
32,298
Brighton
I understand your point, but your post contains one of my most hated things in football punditry.

I don't care if we haven't beaten Sweden in the last 99 years. Its not the SAME PLAYERS. it has literally NO relevance to the players on show. If we were travelling to Sweden, for a qualifier, we would expect a win.

Couldn't agree more. There's a guy on Football Weekly who will always start his comment regarding an upcoming game with a completely meaningless list of stats, i.e.

Man City have only beaten Bayern Munich twice in the last 40 years. So what? That has LITERALLY ((c) Jamie Redknapp) NOTHING to do with the players who will go onto that pitch. Can you imagine Aguero going through on goal in the last minute, only to stop and think "Ah, hang on, we never beat this lot, shit! What do I do?!"

Most annoying aspect of punditry ever. Except Alan Shearer.

Re: beating Sweden in qualifiers, the fairest way would be to look at how we have done against similarly-ranked sides to Sweden in qualifiers over the last few years. I think it would show that generally we have a favourable record (i.e. Croatia).
 
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Giraffe

VERY part time moderator
Helpful Moderator
NSC Patron
Aug 8, 2005
26,948
All of this.

I honestly have NO idea where people are getting the notion that we definitely wont get out our group.

If we played France in a freindly we would expect to lose. Fine.

If we played Sweden in a friendly we would expect to win. 3 points.

If we played Ukraine in a game we would expect to win. 3 points.

6 points, out of the group.

Now you get to the point where ANYONE can win a one-off game. Can we beat Spain on our day? Yep, did it a few months ago and Rooney would be back.

Then you get to the Semi's. The tension has risen dramatically. Hold your nerve, defend like Chelsea and snatch a 1-0 through an Ashley young free kick which evades everyone, creeps down the corridor of uncertanty and goes straight in.

We're in the final now. Anything can happen.

EASY
 




Herr Tubthumper

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
61,798
The Fatherland
Re: beating Sweden in qualifiers, the fairest way would be to look at how we have done against similarly-ranked sides to Sweden in qualifiers over the last few years. I think it would show that generally we have a favourable record (i.e. Croatia).

The qualifiers are one thing, the finals are something different. England choke when they get onto the big stage. Citing games during the qualifiers is one thing, at the sharp end of the tournament England repeatedly freeze.
 


krakatoa

Member
Jan 21, 2010
472
HOVE
Our Euro 92 squad was poor, but this lot is worse. Incredibly less than half are even regulars in a Premier league team. How it's come to this with the billions that swills round our game these days is something the F.A. need to look at. Quarter finals at best i reckon.
 


Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
32,298
Brighton
The qualifiers are one thing, the finals are something different. England choke when they get onto the big stage. Citing games during the qualifiers is one thing, at the sharp end of the tournament England repeatedly freeze.

I know...surely that's got to stop at some point though? The performance against Algeria was genuinely baffling in 2010. Move it back about 6 months and we would've beaten them 4-1.
 




Herr Tubthumper

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
61,798
The Fatherland
Our Euro 92 squad was poor, but this lot is worse. Incredibly less than half are even regulars in a Premier league team. How it's come to this with the billions that swills round our game these days is something the F.A. need to look at. Quarter finals at best i reckon.

The one thing I will say in England's favour is that this is the first time I can remember we are actually leaving injured players at home. But yeah, I see your point, how many other nations take players who rarely play competitive football?
 


Dan Gleeballs

Active member
Nov 24, 2011
968
I think the honest truth is that under Hodgeson, we genuinely don't know what to expect. The team are definitely looking stronger so far, but it's only been a couple of friendlies so it's impossible to tell.

The exact reason why the doom merchants get right on my tits. Were gonna lose, Hodgson doesn't know what he's doing, Rio Ferdinand... Blah blah blah. I'm glad expectations are low. I wanna see Hodgson with his held high if England do deliver the goods & if we don't... Well like or lump it because he's got another 4 years on his contract. I will end on the press can f**k off. Sick of them
 


Jan 5, 2011
37
Swedish media are very concerned about Roy Hodgson and the fact that he knows enough about Scandinavian football to not underestimate Sweden, which is usually the case.

England armed with low expectations is a massive problem for anybody.:thumbsup:
 


SeagullSongs

And it's all gone quiet..
Oct 10, 2011
6,937
Southampton
This thread seems to sum up NSC pretty well to my understanding:

Initial optimism, swathes of pessimism, a series of contradictions where both parties agreed they were wrong, some GOOD OLD FASHIONED statistics, a history lesson and excellent TACTICAL use of capital letters.
 






Silent Bob

( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
Dec 6, 2004
22,172
At no point in the last 2 games did we look even vaguely ruffled when the other team had the ball. That is one positive (no, I don't think we're going to win it, probably quarters at best, maybe semis if the draw is kind).
I thought Belgium could have scored against tbh. All the sides we're playing are better than Belgium and miles better than Norway.
When I did my predictions for Euro 2012 I had England losing to France, drawing with Sweden, and beating Ukraine, finishing second. But I'm not hugely confident about it.

Then we lost to Italy in the quarters. :moo:
 


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