[Football] FFS Tony Bloom

[Half Time Pies]

Of course we can't say how those strikers would have done if they were on the pitch instead of Maupay....but you can look at their xG stats and see how well they convert the chances they get:

- Adams (overachieving by .57 [better than Maupay])
- Watkins (underachieving by .61 [worse than Maupay])
- Josh King (underachieving by .47 [worse than Maupay]
- Wilson (overachieving by 0.18 [better than Maupay]

So - you could argue that Adams and/or Wilson might have done better - but it's fairly marginal, and Adams only has a couple of goals this season which indicates he probably doesn't get in the right place to get the opportunities in the first place.

You cant use stats in such a narrow way. Strikers have good games and bad games, sometimes they only need one chance and they score, other times nothing works for them, they will often also have good periods and bad periods of the season. This could be caused by a load of different factors, injuries, lack of confidence, where they are being asked to play on the pitch and the opposition they are playing against.

What you need is options, we shouldn't be looking to replace Maupay because at times and against certain teams his performance levels are very high, we should be bringing a striker in to add to our attacking options, someone who can potentially change a game and offer something different to what we have currently got. Olly Watkins is a great example, he's not having the best of seasons, his stats for this season don't look great, but Villa brought him on against us and he changes the game. He offers something different and has the quality to take make something happen. Against Leeds the only option we had off the bench was to replace Maupay with Locadia!

Any of the players you mention would strengthen our attacking options, they would increase competition for places and therefore likely raised the level of others in the team, and would have nicked the odd goal here and there, significantly increasing the chances of us turning some of these draws in to wins.

 

[El Presidente]

I reckon they all would have tapped in from 3yds out….

A bit like Aubemayang did for Arsenal on Saturday?, And he’s on £300k a week

 

[cjd]

A bit like Aubemayang did for Arsenal on Saturday?, And he’s on £300k a week

Ah.....but can he do it consistently week in and week out ?

 

[nwgull]

Just for the record, I am not a bloom detractor, far from it.

I just think this modern bullshit of xG is just that.

That's fair enough. I personally think that xG is one of the best stats available to give a true reflection of how sides have played in a game and whether the scoreline is reflective of dominance. It's based on data from chances taken or not in 1000s of football matches, so not just made up based on opinion.

Last season was an interesting one where our xG conceded was far lower than the actual goals conceded for the 10 games when Ryan was in goal. As soon as Sanchez replaced him this more or less evened itself out, so it showed that Sanchez was a far better shot stopper in addition to the fact that he dominates the area better (which comparison between xG and actual goals conceded won't show).

 

[El Presidente]

Ah.....but can he do it consistently week in and week out ?

Good point, well made x

 

[Marshy]

haha of course we need another front man but we are not going to pay over the odds for someone its really as simple as that.

I fear for the new guy already if he has not got 10 in 10 and taken every chance that comes his way..

 

[lost in london]

It's the easiest thing in the world to cry 'we need a striker' and stop your thought process right there, not considering what that really means in practice and how difficult and expensive that really is. It also suggests that you haven't really given thought to the fact that we have clearly taken a different route of making us hard to beat and creative in midfield. We're 8th in the premier league. How on earth could the club's approach be deemed to be anything other than a colossal success?

I was as frustrated as anyone else watching Saturday's game and seeing all those chances missed; it's obvious we need a striker, but it's also obvious to anyone who gives it a moment's thought that it isn't as easy as picking a 20 + goal a season striker off the shelf. It's also obvious that this is the best team we have ever had, playing the best football, achieving the best results the club has ever had, and that's all down to the management of the club. Trust in them.

 

[grubbyhands]

It's the easiest thing in the world to cry 'we need a striker' and stop your thought process right there, not considering what that really means in practice and how difficult and expensive that really is. It also suggests that you haven't really given thought to the fact that we have clearly taken a different route of making us hard to beat and creative in midfield. We're 8th in the premier league. How on earth could the club's approach be deemed to be anything other than a colossal success?

I was as frustrated as anyone else watching Saturday's game and seeing all those chances missed; it's obvious we need a striker, but it's also obvious to anyone who gives it a moment's thought that it isn't as easy as picking a 20 + goal a season striker off the shelf. It's also obvious that this is the best team we have ever had, playing the best football, achieving the best results the club has ever had, and that's all down to the management of the club. Trust in them.

I'd agree with every bit of that. Also I'd like to go on record to say thanks to Uncle Tony and sorry a very small minority of our fans are such entitled,ungrateful,whinging tossers.

 

[Dick Knights Mumm]

If it was simple we'd have done it, and if somehow we'd have unearthed a gem that turned out to be brilliant it's unlikely he'd be with us long.

How about some of the other players chip in with a few goals - I am not looking at you Leandro. That would take some pressure off Maupay and may improve his conversion rate.

 

[Swansman]

I wonder if those who initially mentioned "Adams" along with three very recent signings actually meant Armstrong, who plenty moaned about not signing in the summer: "LOOK! They're signing Armstrong and we're getting nothing!".

From what I've seen, Armstrong is not too far from nothing.

 

[portslade seagull]

If it was simple we'd have done it, and if somehow we'd have unearthed a gem that turned out to be brilliant it's unlikely he'd be with us long.

How about some of the other players chip in with a few goals - I am not looking at you Leandro. That would take some pressure off Maupay and may improve his conversion rate.

Sadly that means our midfielder's would have to take the shot/ opportunity to shoot rather than play the safe route and pass sideways or backwards. Apart from Trossard who is exempt and maybe Mwepo we are short of numbers in this dept

 

[rippleman]

I wonder if those who initially mentioned "Adams" along with three very recent signings actually meant Armstrong, who plenty moaned about not signing in the summer: "LOOK! They're signing Armstrong and we're getting nothing!".

From what I've seen, Armstrong is not too far from nothing.

But still further away from nothing than Locadia.

As you are Potter's PR guru, maybe you can explain why he rates Locadia as a better PL footballer than Andone, Zequiri & Ali J. Nobody else has been able to see it. Also why is Locadia a better option on the bench than the youngsters Ferguson & Tolaj?

What does Potter see in a striker who couldn't score in the MLS that makes him believe he will become a successful EPL striker?

 

[Stat Brother]

haha of course we need another front man but we are not going to pay over the odds for someone its really as simple as that.

But not as simple as:-

All strikers have always been valued at over the odds.

 

[Springal]

But still further away from nothing than Locadia.

As you are Potter's PR guru, maybe you can explain why he rates Locadia as a better PL footballer than Andone, Zequiri & Ali J. Nobody else has been able to see it. Also why is Locadia a better option on the bench than the youngsters Ferguson & Tolaj?

?

Er isn't that an easy one? Because we found takers for the others (Zequiri doesn't count as he is a youngster so needs to play regularly for experience) - we are stuck with Locadia.

Maybe we could crowdfund paying up his contract? I reckon 30,000 fans paying £35 should do it.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Sadly that means our midfielder's would have to take the shot/ opportunity to shoot rather than play the safe route and pass sideways or backwards. Apart from Trossard who is exempt and maybe Mwepo we are short of numbers in this dept

We're getting the shots away. We're just in the position where we have midfielders, who are very good in midfield, but terrible finishers. Moder was nowhere near with his chances at the weekend. Lallana I think has the biggest disparity between football ability and finishing ability i've ever seen. Bissouma probably second biggest.

The only thing I can think of is to try and protect these players weaknesses by playing them in their natural positions, a bit deeper. But on the other hand, we can't play a full team of defensive midfielders.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Er isn't that an easy one? Because we found takers for the others (Zequiri doesn't count as he is a youngster so needs to play regularly for experience) - we are stuck with Locadia.

Maybe we could crowdfund paying up his contract? I reckon 30,000 fans paying £35 should do it.

Surely given our travails in front of goal he'd be playing for us?

Rather than the weekly game of "which midfielder should we put up front", or Locadia. Surely Zeqiri would be worth a go. Not stuck out wide. Up front, winning headers, making a nuisance of himself and learning his trade in front of goal. He might come to something, he might not. But the other options, we know aren't going to make it.

The same logic applies to Tolaj. We must be in "what's the worst that could happen?" territory?

 

[Springal]

Surely given our travails in front of goal he'd be playing for us?

Rather than the weekly game of "which midfielder should we put up front", or Locadia. Surely Zeqiri would be worth a go. Not stuck out wide. Up front, winning headers, making a nuisance of himself and learning his trade in front of goal. He might come to something, he might not. But the other options, we know aren't going to make it.

The same logic applies to Tolaj. We must be in "what's the worst that could happen?" territory?

But he's out on loan. Seems a bit harsh to get him back (if we even can) and 'give him a go' - and when he fails after 3 games gets booed and back to not playing every week.

We're hardly in desperation territory. We're 8th in the league, not losing a lot of games. 'Fine margins'

I still think Potter has to look at himself over the handling of Maupay. He started the season well (4 goals in 9 games) then dropped to experiment with a False 9 and thrown straight back in.

 

[Icy Gull]

Simple question, which PL team has a worse striker selection than the Albion? I am struggling to think of one who have just one fit striker who can possibly be considered PL quality

 

[Springal]

Simple question, which PL team has a worse striker selection than the Albion?

Norwich
Leeds
Southampton (actually maybe not - they have 3 strikers on 2 goals so far)
Brentford
Palace probably on par

 

[Jim in the West]

There are lies, damned lies and statistics!

Having worked as an accountant and data analyst for a few years, I have zero faith in statistics which can be manipulated any which way you choose.

It's always good to be sceptical when looking at one or two data sources, I freely admit. I think, rather than arguing whether Maupay is better or worse than the likes of Adams (or Armstrong)/Wilson/Watkins/Edouard/etc, it would be helpful if those who are criticising the club for not signing a striker actually listed out a few who we SHOULD HAVE signed. But they have to be REALISTIC signings who would want to be here.

Much as I was frustrated by the chances we missed on Saturday, I have 100% faith in the decision-makers at the club....that they are doing the right thing in the long term best interests of BHAFC. When you look at the expertise we have, and then look at how - since TB took over - we have progressed from League One relegation candidates to a mid-table Premier League club...it's proof that expertise is working. I doubt there are many better run clubs in the country.

I say this as an accountant