[Politics] Brexit

[marshy68]

What are the 'really bad possibilities' and how likely are they in your (or your favourite experts) opinion?

I work for a huge multi national company that employs 400,000 people and I have just come out of a very depressing meeting about the future of the business post brexit.

 

[Baldseagull]

IMF have said it is very unlikely there will be a global recession as a result of Brexit.

Many companies have posted higher share prices today due to the lower pound value.

Merkel is now seriously challenging the authority of the big 5 EU commissioners.

The EU is dead, long live a true trade only Europe. Cooperation, not regulation.

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I don't think anyone was expecting a serious worldwide recession, but it is a certainty for the UK and highly likely in the E.U. as a whole, with some members more affected than others.

If the E.U. is dead, it will not make our situation easier, and the worst case scenarios get closer.

 

[marshy68]

How likely is that, between which countries and over what issue?

Germany and France if Germany lose tonight....

 

[Triggaaar]

would be less harmful than the, no evidence things will be better after leaving, but lets do it and find out option.

More stuff you don't know.

It really is not a guess that there will be a recession

Yes it is

I have a special power known as Common Sense, it tells me to listen to experts and that someone who is in denial that things are going to get really rough if we do this, is going to regret that he chose to do this, when it gets really rough.

You are clueless.

 

[smeg]

I work for a huge multi national company that employs 400,000 people and I have just come out of a very depressing meeting about the future of the business post brexit.

Wait for responses stating it might not happen, no one knows etc My feeling is most companies with an HQ will look to relocate in Europe somewhere and probably re brand as a subsidiary, obviously with about 80% less employees. As long as we have our sovereignty back and can limit how many East Europeans will work in our service industry, thats ok............ right?

 

[studio150]

I work for a huge multi national company that employs 400,000 people and I have just come out of a very depressing meeting about the future of the business post brexit.

Sorry to hear that, hopefully you will be ok

 

[Titanic]

I work for a huge multi national company that employs 400,000 people and I have just come out of a very depressing meeting about the future of the business post brexit.

What is the nature of the business and why so gloomy?

 

[marshy68]

What is the nature of the business and why so gloomy?

Don't want to say on public forum as they are very weird about that stuff. But the UK side of the business is a huge exporter to the EU and employs in my office 606 EU nationals.

1) Increased costs due to fluctuation of the £ at the current rate after November will cost the company 10s of millions appreciate the £ might recover.
2) Worried about CAPEX in the UK side of the business due to uncertainly of a Brexit future
3) majority of the legislation that influences the business is form the EU.
4) Increased costs unable to pass on to customer in an already difficult market ( I wonder were they will look to cut costs)??

 

[Baldseagull]

How likely is that, between which countries and over what issue?

It gets more likely with every division.
Maybe the Spanish fishing fleet does not respect the new boundaries, maybe our Navy confiscates a vessel and it escalates.
Maybe tensions in Northern Ireland bubble up again over questions of remaining in Britain or reunification with the South.
Maybe over French blockades of British goods, maybe over Gibraltar.
The bigger risk is from further break up of the Union. Maybe Turkey sees no need to be neighbourly anymore and have it out with Greece over Cyprus. Maybe Russia sees the gang is broken up is emboldened to take a crack at expanding.
I am not expecting any of these things to happen, but we have a pretty solid history in Europe of taking up arms against one another if we cant agree.

 

[marshy68]

Sorry to hear that, hopefully you will be ok

Cheers

 

[Titanic]

It gets more likely with every division.
Maybe the Spanish fishing fleet does not respect the new boundaries, maybe our Navy confiscates a vessel and it escalates.
Maybe tensions in Northern Ireland bubble up again over questions of remaining in Britain or reunification with the South.
Maybe over French blockades of British goods, maybe over Gibraltar.
The bigger risk is from further break up of the Union. Maybe Turkey sees no need to be neighbourly anymore and have it out with Greece over Cyprus. Maybe Russia sees the gang is broken up is emboldened to take a crack at expanding.
I am not expecting any of these things to happen, but we have a pretty solid history in Europe of taking up arms against one another if we cant agree.

neither am I, so perhaps we can all stop panicking?

 

[wellquickwoody]

How likely is that, between which countries and over what issue?

Who can accurately foretell conflict and war? No one really, but history shows us that economic instability makes it more likely.

 

[Titanic]

Don't want to say on public forum as they are very weird about that stuff. But the UK side of the business is a huge exporter to the EU and employs in my office 606 EU nationals.

1) Increased costs due to fluctuation of the £ at the current rate after November will cost the company 10s of millions appreciate the £ might recover.
2) Worried about CAPEX in the UK side of the business due to uncertainly of a Brexit future
3) majority of the legislation that influences the business is form the EU.
4) Increased costs unable to pass on to customer in an already difficult market ( I wonder were they will look to cut costs)??

Surely a company that size isn't overly worried by a few millions on currency fluctuation? don't they hedge these thing anyway?
Shares in major companies don't seem to reflect this gloom and doom approach at present (but maybe that will change over time?)
If you are a huge exporter to European countries, why are they going to stop buying your product?

 

[pastafarian]

It gets more likely with every division.
Maybe the Spanish fishing fleet does not respect the new boundaries, maybe our Navy confiscates a vessel and it escalates.
Maybe tensions in Northern Ireland bubble up again over questions of remaining in Britain or reunification with the South.
Maybe over French blockades of British goods, maybe over Gibraltar.
The bigger risk is from further break up of the Union. Maybe Turkey sees no need to be neighbourly anymore and have it out with Greece over Cyprus. Maybe Russia sees the gang is broken up is emboldened to take a crack at expanding.
I am not expecting any of these things to happen, but we have a pretty solid history in Europe of taking up arms against one another if we cant agree.

Your Project Fear button is still switched on to WAR mode i see.
are you David Cameron?

 

[smeg]

Your Project Fear button is still switched on to WAR mode i see.
are you David Cameron?

Maybe re read the post, I'm assuming you were a leaver and most of their rhetoric was could, might, maybe and that is what Baldseagull is trying to convey, plus the point about Europe taking up arms when they can't agree is 100% relevant. One last thing, "are you David Cameron?" ................ really?

 

[Baldseagull]

neither am I, so perhaps we can all stop panicking?

Oh I see, you ask for me to speculate so that you can dismiss it, nice one.
I foolishly jumped in at the very worst and least likely events, I should have realised.
If you want to try just the highly likely shit coming our way, I have a whole lot of that for you.

 

[Baldseagull]

Your Project Fear button is still switched on to WAR mode i see.
are you David Cameron?

I did try not to mention it but the aptly named Titanic (Thinks he is unsinkable, heading for an iceberg) led me down the garden path a bit.

 

[Soulman]

Now China says a trade deal more likely with the UK now it is leaving the EU.

China has been frustrated with the snails pace trading rules of the EU.


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Enough, negative and gloomy news only please, you know the drill.

 

[pastafarian]

Care to elaborate?

Because every point is factually correct... however brexiters don't like real facts. They like sound bites "take back or country"

ill elaborate on what you wrote

If we want to trade with the EU (which we will need to) they have said they will only do it with free movement of people.

factually incorrect,everyone can trade with The EU,you dont have to have free movement to trade with The EU.

Farage and Johnson have already said that the referendum is NOT about immigration... can they back track anymore on all the BULLSH1T they spouted.

Its not solely about immigration though is it,even though you want it to be so.

Most immigration is from outside of the EU and of the 0.5% from within the EU 98% pay taxes meaning they pay MUCH MORE into the government pot.
.

Than they take...

immigration from the EU does not equate to 0.5% of total immigration
EU migrants as a collective whole do not pay much more into the gov pot than they take out.


http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/381
http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/386
http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/press-release/448
feel free to show how their methodology is incorrect

"Haven't HMRC just published figures showing recent EEA nationals pay five times more than they get?
No. They only compare receipts of income tax and National Insurance with payments of child benefit and tax credits. The same comparison shows the UK general population paying six times more than they get. While on the one hand the comparison does not include taxes like VAT and excise duties, on the other hand it doesn't include housing benefit or any other DWP payments, and most importantly does not include the cost of any public services whatsoever."

You are just continuing with the same lies peddled before the referendum,not sure why you are bothering continuing down this avenue to be honest. The votes have been cast and the result is in.

 

[daveinprague]

Enough, negative and gloomy news only please, you know the drill.

or lie.