[Politics] Brexit

[Dorset Seagull]

Many leavers accepted that the early stages of Brexit would bring the sort of turmoil we are seeing so I am not sure what the remainers are hoping to gain by keep reminding everybody of it. Perhaps we can all save the debate until the end game is played out and we can see the outcome of Brexit rather than initial anticipated phases.

 

[daveinprague]

Many leavers accepted that the early stages of Brexit would bring the sort of turmoil we are seeing so I am not sure what the remainers are hoping to gain by keep reminding everybody of it. Perhaps we can all save the debate until the end game is played out and we can see the outcome of Brexit rather than initial anticipated phases.

In 20 years or so yeah?

 

[Dorset Seagull]

In 20 years or so yeah?

That would be a guess then?

 

[daveinprague]

That would be a guess then?

Yes, it is. Feel free to clear it up for me

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

i do and haven't said otherwise. you and many others need to accept that many issues were already in the pipeline, this even hasnt caused them, it has merely accelerated or increased them. and recognise some of the points above arent even a bad thing.

Now you are clutching at straws to defend the results of the vote, and even if they were in the pipe line (They weren't) how is increasing them or having them accelerated a good thing, all it has lead to is one leaderless mess.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Many leavers accepted that the early stages of Brexit would bring the sort of turmoil we are seeing so I am not sure what the remainers are hoping to gain by keep reminding everybody of it. Perhaps we can all save the debate until the end game is played out and we can see the outcome of Brexit rather than initial anticipated phases.

Many also denied any of this would be possible has "we have had enough of experts" because they don't know what they are talking about.

What is infuriating is now some Brexiters are trying to blame the current situation of the attitude of the media, the remainers and also now the experts, who to different levels said this is what would happened.

 

[Dorset Seagull]

Many also denied any of this would be possible has "we have had enough of experts" because they don't know what they are talking about.

What is infuriating is now some Brexiters are trying to blame the current situation of the attitude of the media, the remainers and also now the experts, who to different levels said this is what would happened.

There is a lot of tosh being spouted by both sides. However, some have decided they want the game abandoned because they go 1-0 down to what they perceive to be a dodgy decision. Others are confident that that the match will be turned around into a 3-1 victory.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Is that a request x

Should save me walking to the SHED.

 

[Bold Seagull]

Many leavers accepted that the early stages of Brexit would bring the sort of turmoil we are seeing so I am not sure what the remainers are hoping to gain by keep reminding everybody of it. Perhaps we can all save the debate until the end game is played out and we can see the outcome of Brexit rather than initial anticipated phases.

At the moment, it is a bit abstract for most people talking about the FTSE, the pound. However, it isn't going to be long before that starts to transfer to actual job losses and real hardship. You can be sure that in the construction industry this last couple of weeks, boardrooms have been convened from house builders to architects as property uncertainty will undoubtedly put projects on hold. I know of several major architect practices who have had big clients stop projects this week, and reports are that in the lead up to the referendum the industry took a massive hit. It won't be some banker losing value off his portfolio, it will be real livelihoods that will feel the impact. It isn't scaremongering, it is happening. A construction industry downturn is going to hurt a lot people.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-economy-pmi-idUKKCN0ZK0NR
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36701273

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

There is a lot of tosh being spouted by both sides. However, some have decided they want the game abandoned because they go 1-0 down to what they perceive to be a dodgy decision. Others are confident that that the match will be turned around into a 3-1 victory.

I think that is half the issue, it seems lost on some the seriousness of the whole issue, and see it as a football match type of victory - both sides.

 

[biddles911]

There is a lot of tosh being spouted by both sides. However, some have decided they want the game abandoned because they go 1-0 down to what they perceive to be a dodgy decision. Others are confident that that the match will be turned around into a 3-1 victory.

If only we'd signed another striker in the transfer window! Sorry, wrong thread......?


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[Billy the Fish]

If only we'd signed another striker in the transfer window! Sorry, wrong thread......?


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We're getting a new manager though! Once she's in I expect her to change the team and the tactics.

 

[Dorset Seagull]

At the moment, it is a bit abstract for most people talking about the FTSE, the pound. However, it isn't going to be long before that starts to transfer to actual job losses and real hardship. You can be sure that in the construction industry this last couple of weeks, boardrooms have been convened from house builders to architects as property uncertainty will undoubtedly put projects on hold. I know of several major architect practices who have had big clients stop projects this week, and reports are that in the lead up to the referendum the industry took a massive hit. It won't be some banker losing value off his portfolio, it will be real livelihoods that will feel the impact. It isn't scaremongering, it is happening. A construction industry downturn is going to hurt a lot people.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-economy-pmi-idUKKCN0ZK0NR
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36701273

We can go round in circles forever on this but what we need now is strong leadership and quickly as the political vacuum will only makes things worse. We are where we are and we have no choice now but to focus on the job in hand. Even if we were to do an about turn and decide to stay the EU would walk all over us and we would be in a weaker position than before so it time to knuckle down and step up.

 

[CHAPPERS]

http://www.georgemagnus.com/ftse-isnt-telling-us-anything-about-the-post-brexit-world-but-is/

After the referendum, the UK’s most important existential event since 1945, a curtain has lifted to reveal a major political and constitutional crisis. It has only been just over a week, and for the time being we are in a vacuum. Quite who fills it, with what, and under what circumstances is unknowable, and it is all too easy to imagine possibilities that are deeply disturbing. But for those expecting a rout in financial markets, there is precious little to write home about, at least so far. A number of City talking heads and several high profile commentators have mocked their gloomier brethren. The Daily Mail – not normally known for its financial and economic acumen – ran a lead story on 2nd July entitled ‘Stop panicking and put the country first’. It singled out the Financial Times as representative of City and industry leaders who, it said, had panicked about the aftermath of the Brexit vote like startled sheep. So, what can we deduce from the relatively sanguine performance of financial markets?

The straight answer is nothing. The FTSE 100 index did stage a significant recovery last week after referendum-related losses. But the FTSE 250, which comprises more UK-focused companies, didn’t, and ended up down 6 per cent over the week. The stock prices of a number of companies that have no export business recorded losses of up to 20 per cent.

For export-oriented companies, the fall in the Pound is a mitigating factor in the outlook. It fell last week, ending at just over $1.3250, compared with about $1.45-1.47 before the night of the referendum. By early this week, it had fallen to $1.28-1.29. I said before the referendum it would most likely fall by 20 per cent, and that still looks likely. If the economy really shuddered, parity is quite possible.The optimists welcome the fall in the Pound, likening it to the big drop that ensued after it left the ERM in 1992, and even anticipating, as the Mail put it, ‘wonderful opportunities’.

There is no question a cheaper Pound will help some companies but it depreciation is most unlikely to offset other economic problems the UK is going to encounter. Unlike the 1990s:

– the Pound is not starting from a chronically overvalued position

world trade is stagnating and there is no productivity miracle occurring, as there was then with information technology
China and several major emerging markets have lapsed into a growth hiatus of unknown duration, when in the earlier period they were starting to make their presence felt
global growth is weak and fragile, whereas it was accelerating quickly 20 years ago
the UK’s balance of payments deficit is a large 7 per cent of GDP, about 3 times as big as it was before the ERM debacle, and lack of confidence in the Pound could make financing the deficit more troublesome

You should note that the Pound has been falling since it reached $1.71 in July 2014, and yet the UK’s trade and external payments position has gotten steadily worse. In the first quarter of 2016, the UK’s trade deficit was the biggest recorded since 2008. So don’t let anybody tell you that a cheaper currency, plain and simple, is a good thing for the economy. It depends.

If the FTSE still looks like it has weathered the initial shock it is probably for two reasons: nothing much has changed so far, and these are early days.

The latest data we have suggest that in the run-up to the referendum, the economy was doing alright. And in a week, the broad picture doesn’t look too different as far as company earnings and the economy are concerned. It is important to note that having lost the referendum on the 24th June, the Government did not invoke Article 50 – the legal process for starting negotiations to leave the EU – the same day. In fact, since then, the timing has been put back first, to September, and then to October. Although Andrea Leadsom, a candidate to become Tory leader and Prime Minister, has stated she would like to invoke it as quickly as possible, the front runner Theresa May has said it wouldn’t be invoked before the British negotiating strategy had been agreed, which would be very late this year at the earliest. There could be further delays in 2017, including the French and German national elections to say nothing of clarifying the UK’s own position with regard to the role of Parliament, and a raft of constitutional and legal issues. Parochial financial markets are, therefore, no more able than anyone else to anticipate events and discount them. So they do little. But if and when the Article is invoked, the UK will lose all its leverage, so expect markets to react at that time certainly, depending on what they think any deal might look like, including the possibility of no deal, which would equate to economic suicide.

These are also early days. I personally expect a recession to take hold, starting with a slowdown in the third quarter. Lending and spending decisions, especially when it comes to house purchases and investment, normally go on hold under conditions of uncertainty, of which we have more than enough. It matters, of course, whether we do experience a recession, not least to those who will lose their jobs, or have to weather wage stickiness. But it will also matter a lot to the Government’s fiscal position which would deteriorate sharply. The Chancellor has already said his 2020 surplus target is a goner, and Theresa May has said she wouldn’t respect it anyway. And it would matter to company earnings, which the FTSE markets would then discount as expectations deteriorated.

But whether or not we go into recession is itself overshadowed by two things. First, all recessions end, so by 2017-18, the chances are we would emerge from it, though at a cost we cannot as yet measure properly. Second, and more importantly, the real damage to the UK is impoverishment over the medium- to long-term as a consequence of supply-side changes affecting trade, investment, and immigration that take time to materialise, although decision-making processes have already started.

The Mail cited HSBC, Rolls Royce, Dixons and Toyota as companies that proclaimed their faith in a post-Brexit Britain. Yet all of these companies have issued warnings, including the shifting of jobs abroad, frozen investment spending, the critical significance of being in the Single Market for small businesses, and huge cost cutting (aka labour shedding) if we leave the Single Market, respectively. Other companies looking at moving jobs away from the UK include Easyjet, Goldman Sachs, Vodafone, and JP Morgan. The costs in terms of jobs and foregone tax revenues, as well as broader economic dynamic will be considerable and barely made up for by a weakened domestic economic base.

Financial service companies can see the writing on the wall: regulatory uncertainty, recruitment issues, and restraints on business conducted inside the EU from outside. They are already pondering which businesses and jobs to locate outside the UK. Don’t be surprised if people are going to be quite tight-lipped about all this for the time being. Weaker investment at home, lower foreign direct investment, a re-allocation of jobs abroad, a more restrictive immigration regime, and severe disruption to our trade relationships all speak to weaker potential growth and productivity at a cost to jobs, incomes and living standards, and a worsening debt profile.

The big worry. of course, is not just the adverse economic outlook itself, but how it interacts with political and policy instability and unpredictability. On the basis that the UK leaves the EU sooner or later, the most adverse outcomes could be mitigated by smart policy choices at home, and preserving as much as we could of our commercial relationship with the EU. As of now, being in the Single Market and free movement of labour are inseparable. So there’s a strong case for doing nothing for quite a while, though this would of course increase economic uncertainty.

All this, though, is for another day. For now, no one is in fact panicking in the markets because there’s nothing to hand to panic about, not least because some of the ominous risks that loom large can’t really be discounted. This, however, does not mean that the City and industry are not starting to take on board the implications of Brexit for the economy. They are not so much panicking as preparing. The FTSE indices will respond in good time.

S'okay though, he's only an 'expert'.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

We're getting a new manager though! Once she's in I expect her to change the team and the tactics.

Well said. Time for a dynamic new start from someone with the drive and vigour to face the temporary minor difficulties and make the most of our newly regained freedom/independence.

 

[studio150]

There is a lot of tosh being spouted by both sides. However, some have decided they want the game abandoned because they go 1-0 down to what they perceive to be a dodgy decision. Others are confident that that the match will be turned around into a 3-1 victory.

I see to be at a different game.
I assume the losing 1-0 due to a dodgy decesion is a reference to Remain.
On the basis that is correct how is Remain going to win 3-1.
The EU have said out is out, the government have said we must follow the referendum result. Some of the conservative prospective leaders have said no 2nd referendum.
I am not confident of things improving in the 2nd half as we are unable to bring on our star Spanish striker as he is banned from playing and is on his way home muttering something about he wished his contract was in euros rather than pounds as he's effectively had a pay cut. Plus the rest of the team are not pleased about having to take public transport after the fame as we cant afford the cost of filling the coach upbwith diesel due to the high prices.
If you are the Special One please let the team and fans know how we are going to win this.

 

[synavm]

The 'we all expected short term difficulty' arguments is absolute tosh. Every time I debated a Brexiter and discussed short to mid-term economic strife, I was constantly told 'don't talk Britain down' and you're just 'fear mongering'. Project fear is and always was about a rejection of expert opinion (Nobel prize winners and other experts from the financial sector, from sciences, from law, from politics, from the arts) in favour of a gut feeling of patriotism and nostalgia.

Now we'll be alright eventually, I'm sure, but all this instability will last a very long time and is unnecessary in my view.

 

[drew]

Many leavers accepted that the early stages of Brexit would bring the sort of turmoil we are seeing so I am not sure what the remainers are hoping to gain by keep reminding everybody of it. Perhaps we can all save the debate until the end game is played out and we can see the outcome of Brexit rather than initial anticipated phases.

I don't think many leavers actually give it much thought. Even the leaders of Brexit don't seem to know what the plan is?

 

[Dorset Seagull]

I see to be at a different game.
On the basis that is correct how is Remain going to win 3-1..

No that's not correct.

Anyway I have followed this thread with interest to learn what I can from the thoughts of both positions. It seems to be going round in circles so as a true leaver it is now time for me to depart and let you all carry on the debate

 

[biddles911]

No that's not correct.

Anyway I have followed this thread with interest to learn what I can from the thoughts of both positions. It seems to be going round in circles so as a true leaver it is now time for me to depart and let you all carry on the debate

Yep, think we should red card the captains of both teams. Oh, forgot they've already done that themselves......


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