[Politics] Brexit

[deletebeepbeepbeep]

UKIP got less share of the votes in the Sleaford by election than the 2015 GE.

 

[5ways]

your argument makes no sence: we have 2/3 exported to other nations with no "passporting" or other agreements, yet you suppose that the 1/3 EU export is entirely dependent on that type of agreement. that is not the position of the people in the finance sector that only says that it is at risk of moving to EU if some agreement cannot be reached. and while the Swiss have offices in the UK to make it easier to do EU trade, what reason do you have for BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank etc having substantial operations here?

London is an excellent place to do business for a number of reasons but it will lose its attractiveness if it is frozen out of the EU. BNP and DB and here because of the culture, timezone and can operate in English - the language of business. The Swiss don't have offices in London to make it easier they need access to the single market in services to be viable. It's not an inconvenience, it's essential to their business.

 

[Soulman]

UKIP got less share of the votes in the Sleaford by election than the 2015 GE.

Really, a big suprise seeing as most people have realised that leaving the EU was their main aim.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Really, a big suprise seeing as most people have realised that leaving the EU was their main aim.

True. The result at Sleaford is an absolute disaster for labour, that, to me, is the story of this election.
Their share of the vote was down 7%.

 

[cheshunt seagull]

Still cheaper than sending 350 million quid a week to keep people in nice jobs with nice pensions, in nice buildings, while the real people rot because of their decisions. How anyone call themself a liberal and support this lot is beyond me.

Except it's not just that we pay 350 million and get nothing back. There is all the investment into the UK from the European Regional Development Fund and European Social Fund which represents the bulk of public investment in many parts of the UK, such as Wales. Most of the schemes to help people start businesses are based on EU funding. It is a pity that we never saw a balance sheet that compared costs and benefits as it would have surprised a lot of people. My job involves working on a service to help people become entrepreneurs and we get EU money and UK government funding. The benefit of the EU funding is that we bid for a contract for 2-4 years and if we meet the (quite tough) targets we know that the funding is secure for that period; we have created 100s of jobs for real people with it. UK government schemes often aim to make a particular minister look as good as possible and spend as much on PR as the actual service; when there is a change of portfolio the incoming minister wants to make their mark and changes everything and we are back to square one; a nightmare for continuity and hugely wasteful.

 

[Soulman]

Except it's not just that we pay 350 million and get nothing back. There is all the investment into the UK from the European Regional Development Fund and European Social Fund which represents the bulk of public investment in many parts of the UK, such as Wales. Most of the schemes to help people start businesses are based on EU funding. It is a pity that we never saw a balance sheet that compared costs and benefits as it would have surprised a lot of people. My job involves working on a service to help people become entrepreneurs and we get EU money and UK government funding. The benefit of the EU funding is that we bid for a contract for 2-4 years and if we meet the (quite tough) targets we know that the funding is secure for that period; we have created 100s of jobs for real people with it. UK government schemes often aim to make a particular minister look as good as possible and spend as much on PR as the actual service; when there is a change of portfolio the incoming minister wants to make their mark and changes everything and we are back to square one; a nightmare for continuity and hugely wasteful.

Investment in Wales, can not argue with that....the people still went big on Brexit though.

 

[Soulman]

True. The result at Sleaford is an absolute disaster for labour, that, to me, is the story of this election.
Their share of the vote was down 7%.

Article in the Times sums Labour up.

Labour is just a carcass for Trots to feast on
david aaronovitch

The implosion of Momentum was always inevitable and shows why Corbyn and his party are a tragic irrelevance.

 

[deletebeepbeepbeep]

True. The result at Sleaford is an absolute disaster for labour, that, to me, is the story of this election.
Their share of the vote was down 7%.

A bigger issue for UKIP who you'd expect to win more votes in a majority leave area, trouble is that Tories have moved into their ground.

 

[mikeyjh]

my point was that its not because of Brexit, Paris and Frankfurt have been trying to get companies to go there for years and failed. yes, with Brexit the landscape changes things and some departments and roles will have to move there. not wholesale businesses though, they are here because the international markets are here, for currency, commodities, eurobond, derivatives and so on. there are foreign businesses taking up new office leases in London including banks despite the gloom that everything is over for the UK, business doesn't agree.

job markets and business are not static. theres a stat that 28% or 2.8m jobs (cant recall) are recycled every year, that is jobs are lost and new jobs created. Brexit will create some more flux, but while theres a population and economy as large as our the vast majority of people will be OK. of those directly affected, many will have the skills and aptitude to take new roles, the really good ones will be retained even if companies move to EU. i may seem blase, i work for a multi national company with people scattered across Europe, "HQ" is in Switzerland, operations in Frankfurt and Madrid, business leaders in London and US, people move between roles in these places and even to far east and South America, while often remaining in one country, so i dont fear the idea that a brass plaque business will be set up in Warsaw or Paris to front a finance company's EU operations.

I totally agree with the idea that change is constant, to use a cliche but I wouldn't go along with 'business doesn't agree', obv things will differ from industry to industry, I'll give you an example - A multinational services it's European customers from UK and to do so it relies on a more than steady stream of labour from Europe, naturally any such organisation will be concerned by Brexit and they are looking at the feasibility of moving their operation. It's important during the planning and negotiations that we do consider situations like this before pandering too much to the hysteria around immigration.

What I would genuinely like to know is what the upside is of Brexit from a business perspective, who are the businesses out there who will see a brexited UK as an opportunity?

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

A bigger issue for UKIP who you'd expect to win more votes in a majority leave area, trouble is that Tories have moved into their ground.

What on earth are you talking about? UKIP was in disarray over summer but yet a party seeking independence, although we have already voted for it, still beat the liberal democrats (ha!) and labour. In more northern constituencies, I think UKIP will eat a little of the labour vote away. Why worry about UKIP? As far as I'm concerned they are mostly irrelevant after Brexit unless they reinvent themselves thoroughly. The issue is an issue for labour who have ambition to win power, an ambition UKIP don't share.

 

[Tom Bombadil]

looking at this by-election in combination with Richmond suggest to me a number of things

1) UKIP are struggling to maintain their relevence against a Conservative party delivering what they could only shout about
2) Labour under Corbyn are drifting even further away from power than ever
3) The lib dems are reinvigorated as the party of Remain, albeit with a long way to go from a very low base
4) The Conservatives are largely unchallenged as the party of government.
5) There is a real split in England between young diverse richer educated metropolitan areas and elderly poor less educated fringes

 

[yxee]

5) There is a real split in England between young diverse richer educated metropolitan areas and elderly poor less educated fringes

I admire your neutrality on this issue.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

You mean we shouldn't pay Nigel Farage for all his hard work making Europe a better place ?... when he turns up ..

I knew farage would be bought up.

 

[Baldseagull]

i wonder what people think about the news McDonalds is moving their non-US HQ from Luxembourg to UK. yes, for tax reasons, but this isnt this supposed to be the wrong way round?

The reason is that the wicked EU, has told Luxembourg they cannot allow McDonalds to dodge tax, so they come to Britain to dodge tax instead. The benefit to Britain is, we get a little bit of tax on profits they took elsewhere. This is great for us, until they spot a cheaper option.
At some point, to prevent big companies driving their corp tax down by negotiating a sweet deal in this place or that, maybe a bunch of Nations could get together and set some rules so that Companies actually meet their social responsibilities, maybe a sort of Union of Europe or something.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

At least we can feel happy that one weeks payment from us has been spent on the new headquarters in Brussels.

What a waste of money I hear you ask, but wait, this building will house two, yes two branches of the bloated beauocracy.
The European Council and wait for it....The Council of Europe.

Sham!!

Sent from my E6653 using Tapatalk

The thought of it winds me up. A complete and utter rip off.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

The reason is that the wicked EU, has told Luxembourg they cannot allow McDonalds to dodge tax, so they come to Britain to dodge tax instead. The benefit to Britain is, we get a little bit of tax on profits they took elsewhere. This is great for us, until they spot a cheaper option.
At some point, to prevent big companies driving their corp tax down by negotiating a sweet deal in this place or that, maybe a bunch of Nations could get together and set some rules so that Companies actually meet their social responsibilities, maybe a sort of Union of Europe or something.

You rather illustrate the point that 'facts' can be manipulated to serve a purpose. McDonalds and
others have been dodging tax in Luxembourg for years fully supported by the EU. Only
recently and under pressure have the EU decided to do something about it. Interestingly, senior
people currently at the European Commission were behind these tax deals for multinationals. There is a suspicion that this is the tip of the multinational tax avoidance EU iceberg.
It is true that U.K. corporation tax is relatively low and that is another reason that the EU makes little sense as an economic entity. They need a harmonized tax rate. Given that U.K. corporate taxation is about half the rate in France I don't think we should be too worried about companies relocating over there to avoid potential tariffs which would be much lower.
This is the peril of people simply taking every story and working it into their own narrative.

 

[Baldseagull]

I totally agree with the idea that change is constant, to use a cliche but I wouldn't go along with 'business doesn't agree', obv things will differ from industry to industry, I'll give you an example - A multinational services it's European customers from UK and to do so it relies on a more than steady stream of labour from Europe, naturally any such organisation will be concerned by Brexit and they are looking at the feasibility of moving their operation. It's important during the planning and negotiations that we do consider situations like this before pandering too much to the hysteria around immigration.

What I would genuinely like to know is what the upside is of Brexit from a business perspective, who are the businesses out there who will see a brexited UK as an opportunity?

As far as I can see, the winners will be those international Businesses with enough clout to put the PM over a barrel with threats to leave. They will be able to do deals that the EU forbids, ie a nice low tax commitment one. May has also said she intends to lower corp tax rates across the board to 17%.
This is not dissimilar to Thatcher/Reagan/Trump economics of make the wealthy and wealthy businesses want to stay or come, and hope it trickles down. It is also the complete opposite of what she said about socially responsible capitalism, but needs must I guess.

 

[Baldseagull]

You rather illustrate the point that 'facts' can be manipulated to serve a purpose. McDonalds and
others have been dodging tax in Luxembourg for years fully supported by the EU. Only
recently and under pressure have the EU decided to do something about it. Interestingly, senior
people currently at the European Commission were behind these tax deals for multinationals. There is a suspicion that this is the tip of the multinational tax avoidance EU iceberg.
It is true that U.K. corporation tax is relatively low and that is another reason that the EU makes little sense as an economic entity. They need a harmonized tax rate. Given that U.K. corporate taxation is about half the rate in France I don't think we should be too worried about companies relocating over there to avoid potential tariffs which would be much lower.
This is the peril of people simply taking every story and working it into their own narrative.

I agree, closer if not harmonised tax rates would be good, one of the things Britain gets very up tight about though and starts shouting about sovereignty, whenever it comes up. France does not have twice the rate that we have, but it is a good way higher, though the overall taxation on business is closer than it looks.
I do not doubt that this has been going on for years, and that it is a bigger problem than is currently apparent, but the EU is now doing something to tackle it, whilst we will be moving to encourage it, which in turn weakens the EU hand in tackling the problem.
Trickle down economics being a reason of yours, for the dissatisfaction of the people of Wakefield, I guess you are happy with the way things are shaping up?

 

[Baldseagull]

The thought of it winds me up. A complete and utter rip off.

Outrageous isn't it. Surely a few tents would do the job.

 

[Soulman]

I spoke to my mate in Hull last night. Fair bit of work going and the steel industry is on the up.