[Politics] Brexit

[Baldseagull]

Apologies if posted previously ...

On the five stages of grief, many Remain voters are stuck in denial

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/11/03/five-stages-grief-most-remain-voters-are-stuck-den/

Mind the Crocodiles.

I was never in denial about how people voted, I have trouble believing they all voted with full knowledge of what was at risk.
I was angry with people who I felt voted on single issues, now I am just angry at Farage for that poster.
I looked for ways to bargain a way out of proceeding, now I am hoping for some bargaining to reduce the damage.
I was and am depressed about the low level of thought that many people applied to the vote.
I accept we will leave the EU, I do not accept that leaving the EU should result in any less of an association than Norway has.

But when the deal is done, if it is not to your liking,will you accept the deal? will you be angry? will you look for ways to go Hard Brexit instead? will you be depressed that you did not get the Brexit you wanted? and will you finally, eventually accept it?

You got yours coming, unless of course we go hard Brexit, in which case, I suspect you will be in denial for a long long time, denial that your vote was to have this.

 

[The Clamp]

World business leaders and financial experts were invited to a meeting with government officials and MP's to discuss the implications of Brexit. Before entering they were all briefed to say nothing negative and to proclaim Brexit a chance for opportunity. Anyone who said anything negative was asked to leave.

Cannot find a link but was in Yesterday's paper edition of the Guardian (now a staggering £2).

They also said the reason nobody knows how Brexit will look is simply because nobody has ever been stupid enough to try it. I think we can at least all agree with that!

 

[Baldseagull]

my point was that its not because of Brexit, Paris and Frankfurt have been trying to get companies to go there for years and failed. yes, with Brexit the landscape changes things and some departments and roles will have to move there. not wholesale businesses though, they are here because the international markets are here, for currency, commodities, eurobond, derivatives and so on. there are foreign businesses taking up new office leases in London including banks despite the gloom that everything is over for the UK, business doesn't agree.

job markets and business are not static. theres a stat that 28% or 2.8m jobs (cant recall) are recycled every year, that is jobs are lost and new jobs created. Brexit will create some more flux, but while theres a population and economy as large as our the vast majority of people will be OK. of those directly affected, many will have the skills and aptitude to take new roles, the really good ones will be retained even if companies move to EU. i may seem blase, i work for a multi national company with people scattered across Europe, "HQ" is in Switzerland, operations in Frankfurt and Madrid, business leaders in London and US, people move between roles in these places and even to far east and South America, while often remaining in one country, so i dont fear the idea that a brass plaque business will be set up in Warsaw or Paris to front a finance company's EU operations.

You seem blase, because you don't understand the problem. 1/3 of UK financial services export is to the EU. However you want to structure it, that is gone, and it risks taking more with it, if an EU nation has the will to give them a nice soft ride.

 

[WonderingSoton]

Interesting, if slightly worrying news this morning concerning UK based banks. It is inevitable that some financial institutions will depart for pastures new indeed ALL of them will have set up teams to consider the implications of Brexit but is it 100% a bad thing? On the one hand I'd love us to base our economy on something other than services like actually, you know, building and making stuff - On the other, we're bound to take some big hits in the short term:-

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38245646

Because Banks in Europe are having a great time of it right now - Germany and Italy especially...!
We're heading into very uncertain times for all of us both inside and outside of the EU. The EU is far from a safe haven for any organisation for the foreseeable.

 

[beorhthelm]

You seem blase, because you don't understand the problem. 1/3 of UK financial services export is to the EU. However you want to structure it, that is gone, and it risks taking more with it, if an EU nation has the will to give them a nice soft ride.

see there you go treating a risk as an absolute fact. some of the financial services exports (not even all) may be at risk of having to transfer to EU based offices. we dont know yet how much or how little, yet you are claiming 1/3 of all export is gone? you dont even know how much of that exporting is dependent on being inside the EU and could continue - the other 2/3 of of exported financial services go outside the EU.

 

[brighton fella]

Even if these statistics of hate crime post Brexit were found to be true and not just fabricated to suit ones side of view.. is it therefore right to suggest that everyone of these incident's that had supposed to have taken place such as vandalism graffiti etc were carried out by the accused. when i say accused i mean Brexiteers.

I bring this up because once a year a small gathering of ourselves at MFE pay tribute to the victims of 7/7 where out of respect we lay a reef at Tavistock. this annual event is well known by various groups and particularly by those who are strongly opposed to MFE. now 2 years ago to our disbelief and utter disgust we come across a swastika with the words nazi written underneath.. this at the very same spot where we annually lay our reef. this gives you some form of indication of what we are up against .. and just what length's the disrespectful ***** are prepared to go through in order to slur ones name..

 

[The Clamp]

Even if these statistics of hate crime post Brexit were found to be true and not just fabricated to suit ones side of view.. is it therefore right to suggest that everyone of these incident's that had supposed to have taken place such as vandalism graffiti etc were carried out by the accused. when i say accused i mean Brexiteers.

I bring this up because once a year a small gathering of ourselves at MFE pay tribute to the victims of 7/7 where out of respect we lay a reef at Tavistock. this annual event is well known by various groups and particularly by those who are strongly opposed to MFE. now 2 years ago to our disbelief and utter disgust we come across a swastika with the words nazi written underneath.. this at the very same spot where we annually lay our reef. this gives you some form of indication of what we are up against .. and just what length's the disrespectful ***** are prepared to go through in order to slur ones name..

Wreath.

 

[Baldseagull]

see there you go treating a risk as an absolute fact. some of the financial services exports (not even all) may be at risk of having to transfer to EU based offices. we dont know yet how much or how little, yet you are claiming 1/3 of all export is gone? you dont even know how much of that exporting is dependent on being inside the EU and could continue - the other 2/3 of of exported financial services go outside the EU.

The risk is not a fact at the moment, you are correct, but in the context of the risk becoming a reality, you cited that everything would be OK due to simple Brass Plate operations, forgive me for not making it abundantly clear that I was working with the same "if" you were.

Near enough the whole 1/3 of it is dependent on being inside the EU, just under 1/3 of export financial business is with America, just over 1/3rd is with the whole of the rest of the world.
I would add, that the risk to financial services is greater than to most other industries, the Swiss do not have the ability to sell financial services in the EU from Switzerland. The Swiss banks in London are here because it gives them access to the EU, so even a good deal on everything else, like the Swiss have, is likely to exclude financial services.

 

[deletebeepbeepbeep]

Even if these statistics of hate crime post Brexit were found to be true and not just fabricated to suit ones side of view.. is it therefore right to suggest that everyone of these incident's that had supposed to have taken place such as vandalism graffiti etc were carried out by the accused. when i say accused i mean Brexiteers.

I bring this up because once a year a small gathering of ourselves at MFE pay tribute to the victims of 7/7 where out of respect we lay a reef at Tavistock. this annual event is well known by various groups and particularly by those who are strongly opposed to MFE. now 2 years ago to our disbelief and utter disgust we come across a swastika with the words nazi written underneath.. this at the very same spot where we annually lay our reef. this gives you some form of indication of what we are up against .. and just what length's the disrespectful ***** are prepared to go through in order to slur ones name..

https://youtu.be/bihoNRc8GDQ

 

[brighton fella]

Wreath.

Well you knew what i meant.

 

[brighton fella]

https://youtu.be/bihoNRc8GDQ

 

[The Clamp]

Reefer madness.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

I was never in denial about how people voted, I have trouble believing they all voted with full knowledge of what was at risk.
I was angry with people who I felt voted on single issues, now I am just angry at Farage for that poster.
I looked for ways to bargain a way out of proceeding, now I am hoping for some bargaining to reduce the damage.
I was and am depressed about the low level of thought that many people applied to the vote.
I accept we will leave the EU, I do not accept that leaving the EU should result in any less of an association than Norway has.

But when the deal is done, if it is not to your liking,will you accept the deal? will you be angry? will you look for ways to go Hard Brexit instead? will you be depressed that you did not get the Brexit you wanted? and will you finally, eventually accept it?

You got yours coming, unless of course we go hard Brexit, in which case, I suspect you will be in denial for a long long time, denial that your vote was to have this.

Assume you mean 'risks' as defined by you? (economic) All voters were flooded with info on the supposed economic risks. I agree though most voters were probably not aware of all the potential risks. Such as being drawn inexorably into a cash cow sub region of a Superstate or continuing with mass immigration 50% ish from the EU despite a vast majority wanting it reduced. Undoubtedly leading to increased societal tensions, pushing people to the extreme parties (see mainland Europe).

Strange thing to get angry about, people normally vote for self interest or one main issue.

If we could all just agree we should try and get the best possible access to the Single market with minimum tariffs while ending free movement, ECJ primacy, large-scale payments then we (mostly) can all move on.

If your criteria for Brexit is being like Norway then you don't really accept the result.

Ever the realist I have never been in any doubt the final deal will probably be less than I hoped but this huge Brexit step is good enough for the moment ... so no anger or depression.

 

[brighton fella]

Reefer madness.

Nice one, don't milk it.

 

[beorhthelm]

Near enough the whole 1/3 of it is dependent on being inside the EU, just under 1/3 of export financial business is with America, just over 1/3rd is with the whole of the rest of the world.
I would add, that the risk to financial services is greater than to most other industries, the Swiss do not have the ability to sell financial services in the EU from Switzerland. The Swiss banks in London are here because it gives them access to the EU, so even a good deal on everything else, like the Swiss have, is likely to exclude financial services.

your argument makes no sence: we have 2/3 exported to other nations with no "passporting" or other agreements, yet you suppose that the 1/3 EU export is entirely dependent on that type of agreement. that is not the position of the people in the finance sector that only says that it is at risk of moving to EU if some agreement cannot be reached. and while the Swiss have offices in the UK to make it easier to do EU trade, what reason do you have for BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank etc having substantial operations here?

 

[brighton fella]

Assume you mean 'risks' as defined by you? (economic) All voters were flooded with info on the supposed economic risks. I agree though most voters were probably not aware of all the potential risks. Such as being drawn inexorably into a cash cow sub region of a Superstate or continuing with mass immigration 50% ish from the EU despite a vast majority wanting it reduced. Undoubtedly leading to increased societal tensions, pushing people to the extreme parties (see mainland Europe).

Strange thing to get angry about, people normally vote for self interest or one main issue.

If we could all just agree we should try and get the best possible access to the Single market with minimum tariffs while ending free movement, ECJ primacy, large-scale payments then we (mostly) can all move on.

If your criteria for Brexit is being like Norway then you don't really accept the result.

Ever the realist I have never been in any doubt the final deal will probably be less than I hoped but this huge Brexit step is good enough for the moment ... so no anger or depression.

I had always understood that being a part of the single market meant that we would have to accept free movement "no if's or but's" hence why i voted against it.

This trying to get access to the single market frightens me...at what cost does it come ? as i keep on saying.. i'd rather not have it at all if it means us getting cuddled up with the EU again.

 

[portslade seagull]

What a weird response. Do you accept everything in life because "it happens"?

We had too, most of us had to learn new skills. It happens companies move. They moved to use lower paid workers in my case to maximise profits. Id be very surpised if there were any major moves out of the city. The only thing we have seen are companies investing in jobs but that goes against your misguided hate towards Brexit.
It must be hard for you to see that Brexit has now been backed by an overwhelming vote by Mp's

 

[portslade seagull]

The risk is not a fact at the moment, you are correct, but in the context of the risk becoming a reality, you cited that everything would be OK due to simple Brass Plate operations, forgive me for not making it abundantly clear that I was working with the same "if" you were.

Near enough the whole 1/3 of it is dependent on being inside the EU, just under 1/3 of export financial business is with America, just over 1/3rd is with the whole of the rest of the world.
I would add, that the risk to financial services is greater than to most other industries, the Swiss do not have the ability to sell financial services in the EU from Switzerland. The Swiss banks in London are here because it gives them access to the EU, so even a good deal on everything else, like the Swiss have, is likely to exclude financial services.

The time for scare stories is over now, its happening. what will be will be. I doubt any will leave

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

We had too, most of us had to learn new skills. It happens companies move. They moved to use lower paid workers in my case to maximise profits. Id be very surpised if there were any major moves out of the city. The only thing we have seen are companies investing in jobs but that goes against your misguided hate towards Brexit.
It must be hard for you to see that Brexit has now been backed by an overwhelming vote by Mp's

If you want to just accept your lot then fine. I find this attitude depressing though.

 

[portslade seagull]

If you want to just accept your lot then fine. I find this attitude depressing though.

The point I'm saying is we had no choice then along with many other jobs manufacturing jobs countrywide which disappeared to other countries of which some were in the EU. If banks do move wages will be one of the factors.