[Politics] Will Brexit Actually Happen

[Two Professors]

This thread seems a lot more reflective on NSC opinion on Brexit,the main thread is regularly hijacked by foreign trolls.
We're leaving,and I hope we get out before the whole rotten thing collapses.Hopefully the Lord Mogg will take over from the awful May,and we can sail into the Sunny Uplands of Blue Passports and Brexit Britain!

 

[Pavilionaire]

Whatever your politics, the way this issue has been handled from the moment Cameron committed us to a Referendum has been an utter, utter shambles. This sh1tstorm now has to play out until after 29th March 2019, and only then will we really find out just how bad things will get.

Hard Brexiteers can - with some justification - say 'Leave' means literally leave everything that ties us to the EU rules in any shape or form. Nobody said that it meant anything else but that.

But similarly, 'Leave' campaigners told us the EU would be desperate to sell us their cars, wine and cheese and that "they need us more than we need them", thereby convincing many voters a good deal was almost inevitable.

I really don't think May can do anything else politically but pursue what we term a 'Hard Brexit' because she has committed herself to executing "the will of the people", which is to leave the EU. The problems really start when the good deal that Leavers have promised doesn't materialise.

I think there will be no "deal" and that will be a gamechanger for Remain because they can then argue with authority that the good deal Leave promised us failed to materialise.

 

[Seasidesage]

I think it'll happen. I think its already gone too far to stop really. What we'll actually get is almost impossible to know right now. Negotiations, if you can call them that are a cluster**** already and are likely to get worse. Between the right wing of the tories and the EU chiefs trying to frighten the other members into not trying the same thing, I cannot see an agreement either being reached or if it is passing this parliament.

So most likely an election which will be between hard exit, new right wing, because May cannot survive this debacle surely? Tory's v shit deal, we'll take what we're given, worst of both worlds, power to the yoof Labour, Hobsons choice if ever there was one. No forward planning, no plan b, no infrastructure works or even semblance of thought on how to progress things.

The most inept badly thought out political decision possibly since Munich. Whether we should've stayed in or left is almost immaterial now. The remainers have no mandate or I suspect capability to prevent it and as a result will get a shit Norway style deal at best if they prevail and the Brexit mob have jumped off a cliff with no idea of what is at the bottom or how to cushion their landing.

Whichever way you look at it we are ****ed and its our fault for being as a nation incapable of debating something properly and then once the decision is made executing it. We are in for years of unnecessarily hard times because our political classes put country 2nd before personal gain. Surely someone somewhere in the civil service must know what the best option actually is? Find out and make a plan to achieve that outcome or as close as is possible. Instead, we are spinning like a top from one position to the next depending on which wing of the Tory party got to sit nearest the leader this morning.

 

[Deleted User X18H]

If 2016 referendum is voided then the 1973 referendum should also be voided so we are out anyway.

 

[A1X]

There will be more anger than we have seen for a long time. I think a new right-wing party that Nigel would set up and control would be a real danger to Labour as UKIP are all but dead in the water now and Nigel knows that.

Heard this far too many times about far too many things to take it seriously anymore. And the whole "danger to Labour" thing was rather disproven by UKIP themselves, who just ended up taking votes off the Tories.

 

[The Camel]

The poll results are predictable apart from one answer.

If you had posted before the initial vote a great deal more than 0.61% would say that they didn't give a monkeys.

 

[Brian Parsons]

Whatever your politics, the way this issue has been handled from the moment Cameron committed us to a Referendum has been an utter, utter shambles. This sh1tstorm now has to play out until after 29th March 2019, and only then will we really find out just how bad things will get.

Hard Brexiteers can - with some justification - say 'Leave' means literally leave everything that ties us to the EU rules in any shape or form. Nobody said that it meant anything else but that.

But similarly, 'Leave' campaigners told us the EU would be desperate to sell us their cars, wine and cheese and that "they need us more than we need them", thereby convincing many voters a good deal was almost inevitable.

I really don't think May can do anything else politically but pursue what we term a 'Hard Brexit' because she has committed herself to executing "the will of the people", which is to leave the EU. The problems really start when the good deal that Leavers have promised doesn't materialise.

I think there will be no "deal" and that will be a gamechanger for Remain because they can then argue with authority that the good deal Leave promised us failed to materialise.

I concur with what you say. Except I play golf occasionally with a person who works in a Mercedes dealership and they are bricking it because of the potential levy's that could be imposed on their cars make them unsaleable. I imagine that goes for all EU countries cars. As we don't have a car industry as such no such worries for us.

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[The Camel]

Loving all the threats of violence by the right wing nutcases.

They obviously don't believe in a representative democracy.

 

[happypig]

If 2016 referendum is voided then the 1973 referendum should also be voided so we are out anyway.

Ah, the voice of wisdom.

Unfortunately it's Norman Wisdom as there wasn't a referendum in 1973.

 

[Pavilionaire]

I think it'll happen. I think its already gone too far to stop really. What we'll actually get is almost impossible to know right now. Negotiations, if you can call them that are a cluster**** already and are likely to get worse. Between the right wing of the tories and the EU chiefs trying to frighten the other members into not trying the same thing, I cannot see an agreement either being reached or if it is passing this parliament.

So most likely an election which will be between hard exit, new right wing, because May cannot survive this debacle surely? Tory's v shit deal, we'll take what we're given, worst of both worlds, power to the yoof Labour, Hobsons choice if ever there was one. No forward planning, no plan b, no infrastructure works or even semblance of thought on how to progress things.

The most inept badly thought out political decision possibly since Munich. Whether we should've stayed in or left is almost immaterial now. The remainers have no mandate or I suspect capability to prevent it and as a result will get a shit Norway style deal at best if they prevail and the Brexit mob have jumped off a cliff with no idea of what is at the bottom or how to cushion their landing.

Whichever way you look at it we are ****ed and its our fault for being as a nation incapable of debating something properly and then once the decision is made executing it. We are in for years of unnecessarily hard times because our political classes put country 2nd before personal gain. Surely someone somewhere in the civil service must know what the best option actually is? Find out and make a plan to achieve that outcome or as close as is possible. Instead, we are spinning like a top from one position to the next depending on which wing of the Tory party got to sit nearest the leader this morning.

I agree with much of what you say, but it will be bad for the EU as well if we leave. Bad leadership has let everyone down.

If Cameron had simply gone to Brussels and said "we accept free movement of labour but want the option to restrict it once net inwards migration exceeds 200,000 per year" then this whole debacle could have been avoided.

"Global Britain" is a smokescreen; we signed a load of deals with China a few weeks ago whilst still being in the EU and the EU has negotiated loads of free trade deals with other blocs / nations that are about to kick in from which we would have benefitted.

 

[Pavilionaire]

I concur with what you say. Except I play golf occasionally with a person who works in a Mercedes dealership and they are bricking it because of the potential levy's that could be imposed on their cars make them unsaleable. I imagine that goes for all EU countries cars. As we don't have a car industry as such no such worries for us.

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Whereas Frankfurt will do very well from the relocation of financial institutions from London. Swings and roundabouts for Merkel.

 

[Hiney]

Has anyone ever told you you have such a punchable face, like a failed estate agent.

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Amazing.

I rest my case.

 

[Wrong-Direction]

Amazing.

I rest my case.

And I rest mine.

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[Seasidesage]

Whatever your politics, the way this issue has been handled from the moment Cameron committed us to a Referendum has been an utter, utter shambles. This sh1tstorm now has to play out until after 29th March 2019, and only then will we really find out just how bad things will get.

Hard Brexiteers can - with some justification - say 'Leave' means literally leave everything that ties us to the EU rules in any shape or form. Nobody said that it meant anything else but that.

But similarly, 'Leave' campaigners told us the EU would be desperate to sell us their cars, wine and cheese and that "they need us more than we need them", thereby convincing many voters a good deal was almost inevitable.

I really don't think May can do anything else politically but pursue what we term a 'Hard Brexit' because she has committed herself to executing "the will of the people", which is to leave the EU. The problems really start when the good deal that Leavers have promised doesn't materialise.

I think there will be no "deal" and that will be a gamechanger for Remain because they can then argue with authority that the good deal Leave promised us failed to materialise.

I work for a company that manufactures outside of the UK and that influenced me to vote remain. Currency fluctuations are the bane of my life. Either way the decision is the decision. I just wish it had been an informed one. I could have been persuaded to vote leave but I couldn't find a coherent argument for either so went with my personal situation as much as anything. Both sides were guilty of some whopping lies, from the £350m a week NHS bollocks to leaving the EU aids terrorists. It became as a result a vote on immigration as much as anything and an ill informed one at that.

Whats really frightening isn't the decision, its the spotlight on just how inept Government is at planning, reacting to events and even formulating a position. Its easy to blame the Tories and I do, but I suspect Labour would have been equally useless.

We need new leaders in both politics and the civil service and most other branches of the establishment to boot. We've been electing and appointing from the same pool of privately educated chinless wonders for years and the centuries of inbreeding appears to have finally caught up with them...

 

[nigeyb]

"Will of the people" innit, but...

...the Phase One agreement on the fate of the Irish border effectively committed the British government to a close regulatory relationship after we leave. The agreement commits the government to maintaining the soft border on on the island of Ireland and DUP support means a border in the Irish Sea is not gonna happen either.

The demands of keeping the Irish border open, maintaining Europol and EU-wide defence operations means that in a large number of areas, a very close regulatory and political relationship is in everyone's interests.

But as everyone knows, in order for the Conservative government to actually sign the thing there is going to have to be some divergence somewhere.

The whole cluster**** has always been about internal Conservative Party infighting.

Most people couldn't really give a monkeys about trading relationships, or regulatory standards, except perhaps those who voted leave because they feel that their are "too many foreigners" and they were always destined to be disappointed.

The optimistically-named Department for Exiting the EU only yesterday appeared to suggest it would rather remain in indefinite purgatory than commit to an end date for transition out of the bloc.

No one every said it was going to be easy (joke)

 

[Mr Bridger]

Yeah let's all sleep-walk through our lives...

Who’s doing that?
You keep yourself up all night fretting then matey

 

[Pavilionaire]

I work for a company that manufactures outside of the UK and that influenced me to vote remain. Currency fluctuations are the bane of my life. Either way the decision is the decision. I just wish it had been an informed one. I could have been persuaded to vote leave but I couldn't find a coherent argument for either so went with my personal situation as much as anything. Both sides were guilty of some whopping lies, from the £350m a week NHS bollocks to leaving the EU aids terrorists. It became as a result a vote on immigration as much as anything and an ill informed one at that.

Whats really frightening isn't the decision, its the spotlight on just how inept Government is at planning, reacting to events and even formulating a position. Its easy to blame the Tories and I do, but I suspect Labour would have been equally useless.

We need new leaders in both politics and the civil service and most other branches of the establishment to boot. We've been electing and appointing from the same pool of privately educated chinless wonders for years and the centuries of inbreeding appears to have finally caught up with them...

I agree with that. Even yesterday in PMQs Mrs May responded to a questions about who will manufacture the new UK post-Brexit passports by saying the blue and gold passports are "the colour of choice" for the UK.

She said: “I think it is absolutely right that after we leave the European Union we return to deciding the colour of passports that we want, not what the European Union wants."

But the facts are we are not obliged to have a burgundy passport and the UK could have kept with blue. Indeed, EU member state Croatia has a dark blue passport now. So not only is May wrong but as Home Secretary for 6 years she was also responsible for PASSPORTS, so it was her job to know this stuff.

Of course, passport harmonisation in the EU was driven by a requirement for consistency of security data, presentation and biometrics - not from a wish to be a superstate, but you're unlikely to hear a Leaver mention any of that.

It is incompetence and ignorance - pure and simple.

 

[nicko31]

I concur with what you say. Except I play golf occasionally with a person who works in a Mercedes dealership and they are bricking it because of the potential levy's that could be imposed on their cars make them unsaleable. I imagine that goes for all EU countries cars. As we don't have a car industry as such no such worries for us.

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We might have sold off our automotive marques long ago but to suggest we don't have a car industry is nonsense. Manufacturing, supply chain and associated industries employ close to a million people, and 4 out of 5 vehicles are exported.

Its pretty significant and often for areas of the countries that have little else. If that goes, I'm not sure what will replace it

 

[Mo Gosfield]

Exactly. Once my generation (of which I am heartily ashamed) is out of the way, sensible people will take us back into the EU, although on worse terms than the ones we enjoy at the moment. This will all have been a colossal waste of time, money and angst.

Not exactly.
Far too few people are taking the time to study and consider the dangerous direction that the EU is heading in and far too few people are bothering to consider the consequences. The strong likelihood is that the EU will not exist in its current format or even at all in 30 years time. In fact, some political historians are predicting a shorter time-span than this. There is much unrest throughout Europe at the expansionist plans and the cost of the political machine driving the agenda.
Good luck in 30 years time.

 

[Seasidesage]

I agree with that. Even yesterday in PMQs Mrs May responded to a questions about who will manufacture the new UK post-Brexit passports by saying the blue and gold passports are "the colour of choice" for the UK.

She said: “I think it is absolutely right that after we leave the European Union we return to deciding the colour of passports that we want, not what the European Union wants."

But the facts are we are not obliged to have a burgundy passport and the UK could have kept with blue. Indeed, EU member state Croatia has a dark blue passport now. So not only is May wrong but as Home Secretary for 6 years she was also responsible for PASSPORTS, so it was her job to know this stuff.

Of course, passport harmonisation in the EU was driven by a requirement for consistency of security data, presentation and biometrics - not from a wish to be a superstate, but you're unlikely to hear a Leaver mention any of that.

It is incompetence and ignorance - pure and simple.

PMQ's are also submitted in advance I believe? So why couldn't a flunky have gone off and found out? Probably because they don't know? Fine. Say that then. We are not children and the contempt that politicians treat us with is a long running bone of contention with me. I can accept if you don't have an answer for everything but I cannot accept it if you have an answer for nothing.

May is clearly the patsy to take the Brexit can, although I doubt she has noticed yet.