[Politics] Will Brexit Actually Happen

[Albion Dan]

Personally I think there will be another referendum when the utter shambles of a potential deal is understood and we'll stay in,

 

[luge]

i dont believe thats a fair reflection. we said we'll leave and the EU rule books says we have 2 years to negotiate, then the EU say we'll have this programme of negotiation were we wont allow anything to be discussed. its true that we seem unprepared, but they have deliberately obstructed progress too, if we had a deal to offer (which was, albeit thin on detail) they defer any discussion.

you're quite right May has not set out a clear policy, or when she has its immediately been rowed back. she is not a leader, she is an administrator. however the problem is the EU didn't have to discuss anything unless we invoked article 50. now we are here, if we hold a referendum based on the negotiation, they have no incentive at all to negotiate as a poor arrangement would be expected to vote against. yes, the deck is stacked in favour of EU if they want to disrespect our majority decision to leave in some capacity.

We didn't have to invoke A50 when we did. We could have done it, say now, after a couple of years in order to get our negotiating position sorted. The problem is that we went in too quickly - I'm assuming to show that we were acting quickly and decisively to a population that is addicted to immediacy. Of course no government structure anywhere works that quickly. We probably now have a better idea of what we would want and what works, but now have 13 months to negotiate it.

The EU stance has been pretty open all the way along. Citizens rights first, then of course they want a trade deal, and are happy to make a bespoke one for the UK. The UK wants to pick and choose and keep the bits that it likes - OK - but the bit that it really wants - financial passports, cannot be cherry picked because it will massively disadvantage the EU and it's citizens.

So that will never be on the table, the rest of it is really small fry compared to that, and Britain has long since given up any sort of leadership in manufacturing or keeping things like energy provision in the UK . Correcting that imbalance will probably take a couple of decades as it essentially means reshaping the economy entirely.

Alas, our list of wants are unachievable. We will have to compromise, and it is at that point the whole thing needs reconsidering. I'd hope that a) we remain or take a norway style deal and b) we do look at reshaping our economy. The many reasons why this vote happened the way it did was because governments have necessarily sold off and closed a huge manufacturing base, failed to replaced or encourage a replacement of jobs, and then allowed the resulting mess to be blamed on the EU, when in reality , the EU was one of the only things keeping investment in those areas afloat.

 

[Hiney]

I knew I was being fed bullshit by both sides and decided not to be a mindless sheep and just vote for the sake of it, turns out I was right all along! [emoji23][emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]

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Good to see that what you eat gets regurgitated completely unaltered

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Wait a minute - did you just have a conversation with your wife or did you have just have a seance with Margaret Thatcher?

Very dissimilar I can assure you

 

[Larry]

The UK cannot afford to leave the EU completely and we connot trust the USA.We will be like Switzerland if we have any sence,but with the idiots who run this country they don't know them selfs,so how do we know and this is not a true democracy it's a elected dictatership that can never agree about anything that is why this country is a Dump.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

How do you define something that isn't that easy to define as the outcome is unknown and could be any from multiple possible outcomes

It's like saying that if someone rolls a dice with 120 sides (they do exist) the outcome is any number between between 1 and 120 which makes it impossible for them to say what the outcome will definitely be before it's rolled.

Brexit is similar in that the outcome could be pretty much anything because it is all down to what is accepted by both sides as a result of the negotiation process prior to leaving, how do you say what that will be beforehand? - it too is impossible to predict, but like the dice above, you can guess or offer multiple possible outcomes where only one will ever emerge but you do not have enough information beforehand to be able to confidently say which one it will be.

It's like those who say we should publicly state our position before we start to negotiate, saying whats the minimum we will accept but again that is foolish to do and could lead to a far worse deal than may have been possible. It is like selling your car, you know the minimum you will take for it would be £7500, but it could potentially sell for upto £10000 and so a deal anywhere in that range is acceptable to you. By saying the minimum you will take first (£7500) before you start to negotiate with the other party means that you will never get more than the £7500 (who would pay more if you knew you could get it for that?) but it also leaves it open to the buyer to say that the maximum they will offer you is a bit less than that £7500 figure (say £7200) meaning you either have to drop your price down further to make a deal or be left with a no deal situation - by simply not telling the buyer beforehand, you have a much better negotiating position to start with and are likely to get more than if you told everyone whats acceptable before you started. Yet some people foolishly think it shows a disastrous handling of the situation by not revealing the Governments final acceptable position first in Brexit negotiations

Others like to use examples of things that haven't happened yet as proof of Brexit failing (like the NHS not getting that money that is used as membership payments to the EU) We haven't left yet, and we are still paying that money to the EU so it would have been impossible to start redirecting it straight after the votes outcome, but again it seems like those opposed fail to understand this because it suits their agenda to push it as a failure and a second vote is needed so the previous outcome can be overturned because they don't like the outcome despite it still being a work in progress

Sums it up perfectly. We don't need to say anymore.

 

[sir albion]

You'd better hope it does happen, because if the remoaners get their way and we stay we can wave bye bye to the Pound and we'll be so heavily punished financially for having for having the temerity to try to leave we'll be the new Greece.

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Christ it would get far worse than that as they'd love to rip Britain apart and rinse us.The liberals would have open borders and happily hand over all power to those dick heads in brussells.

The sooner the better although the one huge problem is a weak,dull,boring bunch of leaders that can't actually lead !!

Christ i'd dread to think what would become of Britain with a pure liberal backing....bloody disaster

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

i dont believe thats a fair reflection. we said we'll leave and the EU rule books says we have 2 years to negotiate, then the EU say we'll have this programme of negotiation were we wont allow anything to be discussed. its true that we seem unprepared, but they have deliberately obstructed progress too, if we had a deal to offer (which was, albeit thin on detail) they defer any discussion.

you're quite right May has not set out a clear policy, or when she has its immediately been rowed back. she is not a leader, she is an administrator. however the problem is the EU didn't have to discuss anything unless we invoked article 50. now we are here, if we hold a referendum based on the negotiation, they have no incentive at all to negotiate as a poor arrangement would be expected to vote against. yes, the deck is stacked in favour of EU if they want to disrespect our majority decision to leave in some capacity.

Actually I think we are in agreement about the first part - enfin (or, at the end of the day, as they say in France), the EU has all the cards, and can leave us to hard Brexit if they want and that's what we go for. Given that it is us who are concerned about the hoards streaming across our borders (which will now include the border between NI and Eire), it will doubtless be left to us to build the barbed wire fences and set up all the new hard border processes at Dover, the airports etc. That is fairly trivial in the great scheme of things, and won't worry the hard Brexitters one bit. Besides, we will have all those extra billions we won't be giving to the EU to pay for it all. But, still, the EU have nothing to lose, other than their cordial relationship with us....which is why the are not 'working hard' to fix a deal. Perhaps this will change, and perhaps May is a brilliant strategist after all. Maybe everything will be fine. A bit different, but fine. It is the pointlessness of it all that I find exasperating.....but, actually, the more I think about it, the less concerned I am about the long term future after we inevitably Brexit. I'd rather we had voted remain, but, yeah, whatever.....it won't affect me anyway.....we get the governments we deserve and by the same token we get the referendum outcomes we deserve. Apologies - I seem to have lost interest in this now

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

I currently assume we will leave into some kind of transitional deal where nothing is really different and we will continue this endless debate about the Irish border and customs unions and trade deals and hard brexit and soft brexit and nothing is really ever resolved because no-one ever has to make the tough decision on these impossible issues because the transition period is undefined and unending but will keep the economy ticking over and will also keep mps and journalists and professional leavers and professional remainers busy for ever. Brexiteers will keep demanding what they demand, and Remoaners will keep remoaning in a constant replay of the past 12 months.

At some point during this endless transition period Labour will win an election and come to power, and fairly quickly establish a Norway-style Brexit-but-not-really-Brexit arrangement where we will claim to have got the best of all worlds, and can veto anything we like about the EU's regulations, but also mean that we won't actually veto anything, will be able to regulate immigration, whilst not regulating immigration, do not have to pay anything to the EU, whilst continuing to pay into the EU, and essentially mean we remain part of the EU whilst also independent of the EU, which will satisfy enough people to put this issue to bed but also not satisfy hard-core people on both sides of the issue, but their complaints will at least cancel each other out. The Tories will point this out as betrayal of the electorate endlessly until they next win an election, but then do nothing different when they actually come to power once again.

In 30 years time we'll have another referendum at which we will go back in.

 

[Wrong-Direction]

Good to see that what you eat gets regurgitated completely unaltered

Oh look out its the class clown, get back under your rock!

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[luge]

At some point during this endless transition period Labour will win an election and come to power, and fairly quickly establish a Norway-style Brexit-but-not-really-Brexit arrangement where we will claim to have got the best of all worlds, and can veto anything we like about the EU's regulations, but also mean that we won't actually veto anything, will be able to regulate immigration, whilst not regulating immigration, do not have to pay anything to the EU, whilst continuing to pay into the EU, and essentially mean we remain part of the EU whilst also independent of the EU, which will satisfy enough people to put this issue to bed but also not satisfy hard-core people on both sides of the issue, but their complaints will at least cancel each other out. The Tories will point this out as betrayal of the electorate endlessly until they next win an election, but then do nothing different when they actually come to power once again.

In 30 years time we'll have another referendum at which we will go back in.

That's a pretty logical hypothesis.

all of this, the whole thing, was unnecessary. Referendums are a bad idea, especially ones that have a 50% + 1 vote win rule.

This question could have been put to the people with the benefit of a proper analysis of what the deal would be with the pros and cons. Instead it was rushed through based on a political game that Cameron was playing - a dangerous, and regressive tactic that has divided a nation. Has to be the worst PM in history, for my money.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

The whole thing was a farce and everyone that voted should be ashamed of themselves.

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Didn't you say you didn't vote in the last GE and yet you bitch about the Tories and how nasty they are ? Tories would have lost the last GE if people like you had bothered to vote.

 

[Tricky Dicky]

The UK cannot afford to leave the EU completely and we connot trust the USA.We will be like Switzerland if we have any sence,but with the idiots who run this country they don't know them selfs,so how do we know and this is not a true democracy it's a elected dictatership that can never agree about anything that is why this country is a Dump.

You're more than welcome to leave.

 

[Surf's Up]

Of course it won't. The country is slowly beginning to realise that that referendum result was a massive mistake, the old people who voted so irresponsibly to leave are gradually leaving themselves, we're the laughing stock of Europe and the world and the hard Tory right are becoming so cocky and arrogant they will inevitably implode.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

Is anyone convinced it won't happen? I haven't seen anyone post that for a long time. It's definitely not as certain as some would have hoped but nobody has claimed it won't happen for a while.
Fishing thread from NSC's most annoying troll.

I hate to point it out but YOU said it wouldn't happen recently on the Brexit thread.

 

[Wrong-Direction]

Didn't you say you didn't vote in the last GE and yet you bitch about the Tories and how nasty they are ? Tories would have lost the last GE if people like you had bothered to vote.

I voted green you moron

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[Westdene Seagull]

I voted green you moron

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Fair enough - must have been the previous GE you said you didn't vote in. Ironic you call me a moron yet voted Green

 

[Wrong-Direction]

Fair enough - must have been the previous GE you said you didn't vote in. Ironic you call me a moron yet voted Green

They had the only policy out of all parties that appealed to me, 3 day weekends [emoji106][emoji482]

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[nicko31]

That's a pretty logical hypothesis.

all of this, the whole thing, was unnecessary. Referendums are a bad idea, especially ones that have a 50% + 1 vote win rule.

This question could have been put to the people with the benefit of a proper analysis of what the deal would be with the pros and cons. Instead it was rushed through based on a political game that Cameron was playing - a dangerous, and regressive tactic that has divided a nation. Has to be the worst PM in history, for my money.

There's a lot that is wrong with this country and having lived for many years overseas there is actually a lot that is right with it.

Brexit was a chance for those who have been dealt a poor hand to lash out and protest, but blaming Europe was barking up the wrong tree.

You are right about Cameron, a horrendous legacy that will only be remembered for one thing

 

[Not Andy Naylor]

In 30 years time we'll have another referendum at which we will go back in.

Exactly. Once my generation (of which I am heartily ashamed) is out of the way, sensible people will take us back into the EU, although on worse terms than the ones we enjoy at the moment. This will all have been a colossal waste of time, money and angst.

Let's hope that what happens between then and now isn't too destructive, but I fear that the Irish border will become a hard one whatever happens. Most likely is that we start with a soft border but that so many illegal immigrants stroll through it that the extreme right wing of the Tories will demand a fence and checkpoints.