[Politics] Will Brexit Actually Happen

[A1X]

Probably the most likely outcome. Ireland will ultimately save us from the Brexdreamists. The country will be poorer though and there will be less options for the young

At least until the young take us back in when their time comes.

 

[oneillco]

Is anyone convinced it won't happen? I haven't seen anyone post that for a long time. It's definitely not as certain as some would have hoped but nobody has claimed it won't happen for a while.
Fishing thread from NSC's most annoying troll.

Many commentators still predicting a Brexit collapse over the unsolvable Irish border problem...

 

[happypig]

I don't think it will happen. The politicians know that whatever deal is negotiated will not satisfy a majority so they will put it to another referendum. "The will of the people" will decide that the price is actually too high and we'll call the whole thing off.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Either way it will be a complete mess

Some crappy deal rushed through which sees us much worse off, or people like Farage demanding team Brexit take it to the streets.

I have a feeling someone from the far left or right will have a pop at someone high up in the Government.

The country is an unfixable mess.

 

[pearl]

I don't think it will happen. The politicians know that whatever deal is negotiated will not satisfy a majority so they will put it to another referendum. "The will of the people" will decide that the price is actually too high and we'll call the whole thing off.

hope you're right, if not there's always anti-depressants (apparently)

 

[Deleted member 22389]

The whole thing was a farce and everyone that voted should be ashamed of themselves.

Sent from my SM-A310F using Tapatalk

As much as we tried, we couldn't actually change anything in the EU no matter how many times the politicians told us it was important to be at the top table. If the EU wanted to change they would have done us a deal on free movement long before the referendum, but they didn't. I'm not ashamed for voting Leave because of it. It's time to try something new.

 

[5ways]

A total waste of time, money, and effort.

 

[luge]

I think we will arrange a breathing period - like the transition deal, where it will become totally apparent that it's economic and cultural suicide (in relation to the hard border in Ireland). Most of the indicators so far suggest that this will indeed be the reality - not project fear - including the governments own data. The only real figures that are supporting a brexit is a small economic growth in the period since the ref - which would have been higher without the economic certainty.

A well argued case for remaining, or arranging a norway style deal will be put to the country. One that highlighted that we do actually have the power to control immigration under EU membership, but succesive governments have not done anything about it because they are aware that immigration under a certain number means that society can't run properly.

If we leave after that, then we all just get on with it. My hunch is that the reality of the situation will be more than enough to change the minds of the swing voters, and probably a small amount of people who would have voted leave without thinking about it and will be a higher number voting to remian/take a norway deal.

The whole thing has been an unmitigated disaster so far. Whatever our opinions, it has split the country - and delivering anything that is remotely acceptable to a large amount of people nigh on impossible - i hope it opens up a national discussion about who and what we are as a nation.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

The shit will hit the fan when those " Left Behind ", who voted out in the hope of change for the better realises that the crock of gold they were promised is really a crock of shite and they are worse off than before.

If the government can negociate a good Brexit then great. If they can't, I don't see how they can commit political suicide by taking us out. Given that it is quite clear that nobody IN CHARGE agrees about, or even has a clear view about what a good Brexit will look like, then I can't see how they can negociate one. The first rule in life - if you don't know what it is you want or what you are trying to get then you can guarantee only one thing - you won't get what you want.

I can't see the government agreeing a soft Brexit because it would be entirely on EU terms and would not satisfy most 'out' voters. So they must decide in the end between advocating a hard Brexit or no Brexit. There are a few, even on NSC (hi PPF) who would prefer a hard Brexit, but somehow I can't see May erecting a barbed wire fence across the NI/Ireland border, and stopping all from entering the UK unless they have a visa (etc) - the grim reality of a hard Brexit is hard to begin to describe, but just imagine France has suddenly become China and go from there. Some people don't seem to realise what 'no deal' means. So I can't see May taking us into a hard Brexit.

So, no soft Brexit and no hard Brexit means.....well, you do the mathematics. I am 85% sure Brexit won't happen. If the government can tell me what Brexit is, and the EU agree with them, and this happens soon, then I will reconsider. Till then, this entire discussion is a bit like a debate on what you would say if you met a ghost.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

The shit will hit the fan when those " Left Behind ", who voted out in the hope of change for the better realises that the crock of gold they were promised is really a crock of shite and they are worse off than before.

Posted by a Corbynista ... oh the irony.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I just had a converstion with Mrs T to find out whether she thinks the Brexit vote we had means the UK is now legally committed to Brexit. Both of us understand that we are not legally committed to Brexit. However we both agree that Tory and Labour are both acting like we are legally compelled to leave on the date in the title of the other thread, and seem to believe they have no option. OK, so if both parties are saying we will leave then we will. I redact my previous post.

The trouble is, see this from the EU perspective. We have said will will DEFINITELY leave. They say, "OK then.". We then look at our shoes for several months. We then say "Make us a deal".

FFS. That's where we are. OK, the EU can now say yes or no to whatever we propose. The entire decision about what Brexit will look like is therefore in the hands of the EU. We have no bargaining chip because we have already decided we will leave come what may. Good deal, shit deal or no deal. Both parties have agred to this apparently.

WTF!!!! The reality is May should have said 'I am going to negociate terms to leave, then we MUST have a referendum on the terms, because, as a reluctant remainer, my abiding concern is that one member of a club cannot resign and expect favours and we may not be granted favours; if I find we cannot get favourable terms I will recommend a 'no to Brexit' vote. If that transpires and the people nevertheless vote 'yes' then we will Brexit with whatever 'deals' we have agreed with the EU, but I hope it won't come to this'.

Instead, frankly, I don't know what strategy she is working through. 'Make me an offer' FFS

 

[ManOfSussex]

I just had a converstion with Mrs T to find out whether she thinks the Brexit vote we had means the UK is now legally committed to Brexit.

Wait a minute - did you just have a conversation with your wife or did you have just have a seance with Margaret Thatcher?

 

[Baker lite]

No there won't, bunch of old farts won't do jack

Sent from my SM-A310F using Tapatalk

I ****ing would.

 

[Baldseagull]

If you mean, will the UK have an extra £350 Million a week in the budget, will we receive no more Refugees, because enough is enough, will we have great free trade deals with countries totalling ten times the economy of the EU, and will we not live by any rule made in Brussels?
Definitely, that will not happen.

However, it is still possible we cease to be a member state of the EU, just very few of the purported benefits of that change of status can be achieved. This is not news to some of us.

 

[The Clamp]

Encouraging to see people think there is a chance we will not exit and giving sound reasons why. However, May's record of listening to sound reasoning is non-existent and I'm fairly resigned to the worst happening with her at the helm. I'm pretty sure we will crash out with a terrible deal.

 

[Jim in the West]

Even Boris has just said that Brexit is a mess!

 

[Thunder Bolt]

https://twitter.com/BrexitBin/status/966614939187150848

[tweet]966614939187150848[/tweet]

 

[beorhthelm]

The trouble is, see this from the EU perspective. We have said will will DEFINITELY leave. They say, "OK then.". We then look at our shoes for several months. We then say "Make us a deal".

i dont believe thats a fair reflection. we said we'll leave and the EU rule books says we have 2 years to negotiate, then the EU say we'll have this programme of negotiation were we wont allow anything to be discussed. its true that we seem unprepared, but they have deliberately obstructed progress too, if we had a deal to offer (which was, albeit thin on detail) they defer any discussion.

you're quite right May has not set out a clear policy, or when she has its immediately been rowed back. she is not a leader, she is an administrator. however the problem is the EU didn't have to discuss anything unless we invoked article 50. now we are here, if we hold a referendum based on the negotiation, they have no incentive at all to negotiate as a poor arrangement would be expected to vote against. yes, the deck is stacked in favour of EU if they want to disrespect our majority decision to leave in some capacity.

 

[Guy Fawkes]

The problem with the leave campaign is generated too many expectations of what was possible. Because they didn't define exactly what form brexit would take it allowed it to be all things to all people and now the more fervent brexiteers are somehow claiming that the entire 52% voted for a brexit exactly as they imagine it. Personally i think we should put the whole thing on hold and have a second referendum on a single transferable vote system setting out 3 or 4 options for how we should go forward.

How do you define something that isn't that easy to define as the outcome is unknown and could be any from multiple possible outcomes

It's like saying that if someone rolls a dice with 120 sides (they do exist) the outcome is any number between between 1 and 120 which makes it impossible for them to say what the outcome will definitely be before it's rolled.

Brexit is similar in that the outcome could be pretty much anything because it is all down to what is accepted by both sides as a result of the negotiation process prior to leaving, how do you say what that will be beforehand? - it too is impossible to predict, but like the dice above, you can guess or offer multiple possible outcomes where only one will ever emerge but you do not have enough information beforehand to be able to confidently say which one it will be.

It's like those who say we should publicly state our position before we start to negotiate, saying whats the minimum we will accept but again that is foolish to do and could lead to a far worse deal than may have been possible. It is like selling your car, you know the minimum you will take for it would be £7500, but it could potentially sell for upto £10000 and so a deal anywhere in that range is acceptable to you. By saying the minimum you will take first (£7500) before you start to negotiate with the other party means that you will never get more than the £7500 (who would pay more if you knew you could get it for that?) but it also leaves it open to the buyer to say that the maximum they will offer you is a bit less than that £7500 figure (say £7200) meaning you either have to drop your price down further to make a deal or be left with a no deal situation - by simply not telling the buyer beforehand, you have a much better negotiating position to start with and are likely to get more than if you told everyone whats acceptable before you started. Yet some people foolishly think it shows a disastrous handling of the situation by not revealing the Governments final acceptable position first in Brexit negotiations

Others like to use examples of things that haven't happened yet as proof of Brexit failing (like the NHS not getting that money that is used as membership payments to the EU) We haven't left yet, and we are still paying that money to the EU so it would have been impossible to start redirecting it straight after the votes outcome, but again it seems like those opposed fail to understand this because it suits their agenda to push it as a failure and a second vote is needed so the previous outcome can be overturned because they don't like the outcome despite it still being a work in progress

 

[nicko31]

https://twitter.com/BrexitBin/status/966614939187150848

[tweet]966614939187150848[/tweet]

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