[Politics] Will Brexit Actually Happen

[oneillco]

Exactly. Once my generation (of which I am heartily ashamed) is out of the way, sensible people will take us back into the EU, although on worse terms than the ones we enjoy at the moment. This will all have been a colossal waste of time, money and angst.

Not exactly.
Far too few people are taking the time to study and consider the dangerous direction that the EU is heading in and far too few people are bothering to consider the consequences. The strong likelihood is that the EU will not exist in its current format or even at all in 30 years time. In fact, some political historians are predicting a shorter time-span than this. There is much unrest throughout Europe at the expansionist plans and the cost of the political machine driving the agenda.
Good luck in 30 years time.

Please enlighten us about the "dangerous direction" the EU is heading in... (bullet points not an essay)

 

[pastafarian]

Is anyone convinced it won't happen? I haven't seen anyone post that for a long time. It's definitely not as certain as some would have hoped but nobody has claimed it won't happen for a while.

well,15%( currently) have just voted today that it wont happen. You yourself said only a few days ago

This. Brexit won't happen.

So yes, apart from you and others no one thinks it wont happen.

 

[DavidinSouthampton]

Of course it will happen, the public voted it and if it doesn't we will see the people taking their borders back, as it's pretty obvious as to the strength of feeling about it. I may even build a wall.

The Mexicans will pay for it!

 

[Not Andy Naylor]

Ah, the voice of wisdom.

Unfortunately it's Norman Wisdom as there wasn't a referendum in 1973.

 

[DavidinSouthampton]

We might have sold off our automotive marques long ago but to suggest we don't have a car industry is nonsense. Manufacturing, supply chain and associated industries employ close to a million people, and 4 out of 5 vehicles are exported.

Its pretty significant and often for areas of the countries that have little else. If that goes, I'm not sure what will replace it

In terms of British owned, we've got Morgan....... and TVR (I think).

 

[Hampster Gull]

First Brexit poll for many months, Mods can you let it run for a few days before merging with the other thread.

Some on the Brexit thread are convinced Brexit wont happen, have they got their finger on the pulse? Or just inserting it inappropriately?

Are you feeling it yet

 

[Mackenzie]

Of course it will happen.


(God help us)

 

[cunning fergus]

Please enlighten us about the "dangerous direction" the EU is heading in... (bullet points not an essay)

How about the EU’s constant drive to enlarge itself taking on shithole countries?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...arting-accession-talks-with-macedonia-albania

Albania FFS........

 

[The Clamp]

well,15%( currently) have just voted today that it wont happen. You yourself said only a few days ago


So yes, apart from you and others no one thinks it wont happen.

After Loony, you are the most easily wound up poster on here. My favourite is not "ignoring" you and watching you go into meltdown.

 

[Official Old Man]

Apparently, after Brexit our UK driving licenses will not be valid in Europe and no alternative scheme has been or is planned to be put in place.
Whether this also works the other way and the overseas drivers in the lorries will not be permitted on our roads I'm unsure.

 

[cunning fergus]

Whereas Frankfurt will do very well from the relocation of financial institutions from London. Swings and roundabouts for Merkel.

Could you provide a bit more meat on the bone here?

Do you think uk listed companies are going to de-list from the LSE?

Are London’s markets in commodities, derivatives and other financial instruments going to close and spring up in the EU?

Before you go on about passporting, you know more EU financial services firms passport into the EU than go the other way.

The market liquidity is in London, it won’t go to Frankfurt if it moves it will go to NY. A major reason why this is the case is law, and the law of finance is common law. This is what exists in the UK, US, HK etc. German law for example doesn’t recognise the concept of common law trusts.......so to move assets and markets etc to Germany would mean a massive legal exercise that couldn’t happen. FACT.

The CEO from RBS on R4 today indicated about 150 jobs would be moved to Amsterdam.

Sadly for us socialists the City of London’s dominance will continue.

Now if Corbyn gets in, that could see relocation big style........Brexit won’t.

Sorry to to ruin your day.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Could you provide a bit more meat on the bone here?

Do you think uk listed companies are going to de-list from the LSE?

Are London’s markets in commodities, derivatives and other financial instruments going to close and spring up in the EU?

Before you go on about passporting, you know more EU financial services firms passport into the EU than go the other way.

The market liquidity is in London, it won’t go to Frankfurt if it moves it will go to NY. A major reason why this is the case is law, and the law of finance is common law. This is what exists in the UK, US, HK etc. German law for example doesn’t recognise the concept of common law trusts.......so to move assets and markets etc to Germany would mean a massive legal exercise that couldn’t happen. FACT.

The CEO from RBS on R4 today indicated about 150 jobs would be moved to Amsterdam.

Sadly for us socialists the City of London’s dominance will continue.

Now if Corbyn gets in, that could see relocation big style........Brexit won’t.

Sorry to to ruin your day.

Fact

 

[A1X]

I do enjoy the people who say "it'd be the fault of Corbyn and not Brexit if bad things happen to the economy", seemingly ignoring the fact that Brexit, whichever way it pans out, is likely to destabilise the Government and make Corbyn getting in much more likely than it would have been if, say, the UK had opted for Remain in 2016.

Brexit means Corbyn.

 

[Pavilionaire]

Could you provide a bit more meat on the bone here?

Do you think uk listed companies are going to de-list from the LSE?

Are London’s markets in commodities, derivatives and other financial instruments going to close and spring up in the EU?

Before you go on about passporting, you know more EU financial services firms passport into the EU than go the other way.

The market liquidity is in London, it won’t go to Frankfurt if it moves it will go to NY. A major reason why this is the case is law, and the law of finance is common law. This is what exists in the UK, US, HK etc. German law for example doesn’t recognise the concept of common law trusts.......so to move assets and markets etc to Germany would mean a massive legal exercise that couldn’t happen. FACT.

The CEO from RBS on R4 today indicated about 150 jobs would be moved to Amsterdam.

Sadly for us socialists the City of London’s dominance will continue.

Now if Corbyn gets in, that could see relocation big style........Brexit won’t.

Sorry to to ruin your day.

You haven't ruined my day, oh righteous one. I believe that a significant amount of business - much of it financial - will leave the UK because of Brexit, and much of that will relocate to the EU. Theresa May herself cited that as one of her two main reasons why she was originally a Remainer.

Obviously there will be winners and loses but for now it is important to see the bigger picture because of the overall effect on the UK tax base which shapes what we can afford to do in the world.

 

[beorhthelm]

rexit means Corbyn.

now i scared.

 

[cunning fergus]

You haven't ruined my day, oh righteous one. I believe that a significant amount of business - much of it financial - will leave the UK because of Brexit, and much of that will relocate to the EU. Theresa May herself cited that as one of her two main reasons why she was originally a Remainer.

Obviously there will be winners and loses but for now it is important to see the bigger picture because of the overall effect on the UK tax base which shapes what we can afford to do in the world.

The operative word you have used here is “believe” as in not based on facts.

No one in the media has mentioned the nature of the practical effort required to move millions of complex common law financial services contracts into EU equivalents The scale of this challenge is beyond measure, and it’s why if financial services business between counterparties will move it won’t shift to the EU it would shift to NY. That it is where liquidity and law is more aligned with London. It’s why companies from around the world list in London not the EU.

Retail client business with EU citizens is different and it’s likeky (subject to deal) that there will be jobs that transfer from the UK to EU. This is not significant relative to counterparty business.

 

[OzMike]

Yes and sooner rather than later, not that it will affect me much.
I still think that England needs it's independence.

 

[Pavilionaire]

The operative word you have used here is “believe” as in not based on facts.

No one in the media has mentioned the nature of the practical effort required to move millions of complex common law financial services contracts into EU equivalents The scale of this challenge is beyond measure, and it’s why if financial services business between counterparties will move it won’t shift to the EU it would shift to NY. That it is where liquidity and law is more aligned with London. It’s why companies from around the world list in London not the EU.

Retail client business with EU citizens is different and it’s likeky (subject to deal) that there will be jobs that transfer from the UK to EU. This is not significant relative to counterparty business.

You're obsessed with facts. We've talking about the future, so this is speculation based on the predictability of behaviour, which is uncertain. It only becomes a fact when it has happened.

But if business locates to the UK partly because the UK is in the EU it stands to reason if we're not in the EU then some of the business will leave the UK for the EU so they remain in it.

 

[cunning fergus]

I do enjoy the people who say "it'd be the fault of Corbyn and not Brexit if bad things happen to the economy", seemingly ignoring the fact that Brexit, whichever way it pans out, is likely to destabilise the Government and make Corbyn getting in much more likely than it would have been if, say, the UK had opted for Remain in 2016.

Brexit means Corbyn.

That’s as maybe, but Corbyn as PM is likely to be far more destabilising for the City than Brexit.

The legions of pro EU Tory supporters on this board who are constantly waving a flag that the City will not cope with Brexit are demonstrating woeful ignorance. With Labour in and Corbyn as PM its Brexit + socialism.

It will be more Tax, nationalisation and much more regulation on markets and bonuses that will ultimately see off the fat cats. I can’t wait!

Hasta la Victoria Siempere.....

 

[cunning fergus]

Fact

Treuhand.....