[Politics] Will Brexit Actually Happen

[cunning fergus]

You're obsessed with facts. We've talking about the future, so this is speculation based on the predictability of behaviour, which is uncertain. It only becomes a fact when it has happened.

But if business locates to the UK partly because the UK is in the EU it stands to reason if we're not in the EU then some of the business will leave the UK for the EU so they remain in it.

This is what you are not understanding......the EU financial services companies are in the UK because the markets with the most liquidity are here, the law of finance is common law, there are thousands of legal and services businesses here.

You can just shift all that to Frankfurt.

It’s like saying if Germany left the EU all their engineering and manufacturing would move on to other countries. It wouldn’t because the infrastructure and expertise is too embedded.

I’m sure it would be used as a threat in the discourse, and no doubt the simple minded will damp their mattresses.

 

[oneillco]

This is what you are not understanding......the EU financial services companies are in the UK because the markets with the most liquidity are here, the law of finance is common law, there are thousands of legal and services businesses here.

You can just shift all that to Frankfurt.

It’s like saying if Germany left the EU all their engineering and manufacturing would move on to other countries. It wouldn’t because the infrastructure and expertise is too embedded.

I’m sure it would be used as a threat in the discourse, and no doubt the simple minded will damp their mattresses.

Well Cunning Fergus I can report that the European owned financial services provider I work for has dramatically reduced its London operation to re-size for a post-Brexit world. A third of jobs have been re-patriated out of London already. Friends at other organisations report similar shifts of departments/functions out of the UK. Not closing-up shop but certainly reducing London exposure. The key question is whether this slow exodus picks-up momentum over the next 25 years...

 

[Brian Parsons]

Ah, the voice of wisdom.

Unfortunately it's Norman Wisdom as there wasn't a referendum in 1973.

Yes there was, it was was to decide wether or not we remained in the Common Market. We were all unaware of the behemoth that is the EU was on its way. If we had known I feel we would have left then. Coincidentally that was the first time the Forces had the right to vote.

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[oneillco]

How about the EU’s constant drive to enlarge itself taking on shithole countries?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...arting-accession-talks-with-macedonia-albania

Albania FFS........

So that's it is it? The only "dangerous direction that the EU is heading in" that anyone can come-up with is that negotiations are to start with two small countries about the possibility of entering the EU at some point in the future...

 

[cunning fergus]

Well Cunning Fergus I can report that the European owned financial services provider I work for has dramatically reduced its London operation to re-size for a post-Brexit world. A third of jobs have been re-patriated out of London already. Friends at other organisations report similar shifts of departments/functions out of the UK. Not closing-up shop but certainly reducing London exposure. The key question is whether this slow exodus picks-up momentum over the next 25 years...

My experience is to the contrary, I know of no major FS business that has made any such step.....lots of contingency plans have been made as should be expected, most major businesses I am aware of have agreed to make notifications to Govt agencies before any meaningful decisions on movements take place. In Dublin there has been floor space reserved but no other steps like recruitment etc. The CBOI are requesting firms visit them before any practical steps are taken.

Any company that has “dramatically” reduced its UK team in preparation for the post Brexit world will have completely jumped off a cliff before knowing what the final deal is......if it includes equivalence given that the U.K. is already operating under MiFID 2, MLD4, CRD5 etc. equivalence is not a technical issue merely political then nothing happens.

Your company is either insignificant, run by knobheads or you are lying.....

 

[cunning fergus]

So that's it is it? The only "dangerous direction that the EU is heading in" that anyone can come-up with is that negotiations are to start with two small countries about the possibility of entering the EU at some point in the future...

Yep.....when I think of dangerous places in the world I would include the Balkans......evidently you don’t.

Interesting....

 

[happypig]

Yes there was, it was was to decide wether or not we remained in the Common Market. We were all unaware of the behemoth that is the EU was on its way. If we had known I feel we would have left then. Coincidentally that was the first time the Forces had the right to vote.

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Don't be a HB&B, that was 1975.

 

[A1X]

Yes there was, it was was to decide wether or not we remained in the Common Market. We were all unaware of the behemoth that is the EU was on its way. If we had known I feel we would have left then. Coincidentally that was the first time the Forces had the right to vote.

Should have read the Treaty of Rome then. It's all there.

 

[WATFORD zero]

So here we are, 21 months after the vote, 13 months before the leaving date and what preparations have we made ?

None

Oh well, how many decisions have we made on what's going to happen and how it will be implemented ?

None

Knowing how quickly the government and civil service implement change, It's definitely going to happen then

Luckily Theresa has opened the door to a second extension to membership

 

[oneillco]

My experience is to the contrary, I know of no major FS business that has made any such step.....lots of contingency plans have been made as should be expected, most major businesses I am aware of have agreed to make notifications to Govt agencies before any meaningful decisions on movements take place. In Dublin there has been floor space reserved but no other steps like recruitment etc. The CBOI are requesting firms visit them before any practical steps are taken.

Any company that has “dramatically” reduced its UK team in preparation for the post Brexit world will have completely jumped off a cliff before knowing what the final deal is......if it includes equivalence given that the U.K. is already operating under MiFID 2, MLD4, CRD5 etc. equivalence is not a technical issue merely political then nothing happens.

Your company is either insignificant, run by knobheads or you are lying.....

Hahahaha..! Insignificant no - quite the opposite. Run by knobheads - possibly. Lying - no; I'm not talking about front office functions. In fact a friend is working for a Japanese bank which is in advanced stages of re-locating from London to Frankfurt. Maybe you don't know everything?

 

[pearl]

Yes and sooner rather than later, not that it will affect me much.
I still think that England needs it's independence.

England?

 

[oneillco]

Yep.....when I think of dangerous places in the world I would include the Balkans......evidently you don’t.

Interesting....

And were it ever to transpire that said countries joined the EU would it not make the region safer? There has never been armed conflict between two EU states. Oh and please stop being so pompous.

 

[beorhthelm]

Hahahaha..! Insignificant no - quite the opposite. Run by knobheads - possibly. Lying - no; I'm not talking about front office functions. In fact a friend is working for a Japanese bank which is in advanced stages of re-locating from London to Frankfurt. Maybe you don't know everything?

there are several Japanese banks so doubt one might be opening Frankfurt operations. however i read this month one of them Sumitomo, signed new lease in London, joining Deutsche Bank, Bank of America and others that have extended leases well into the next decade. smaller but significant Estonian bank LHV has announced its opening operations in UK. its a very fluid situation for the sector.

 

[midnight_rendezvous]

You'd better hope it does happen, because if the remoaners get their way and we stay we can wave bye bye to the Pound and we'll be so heavily punished financially for having for having the temerity to try to leave we'll be the new Greece.

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Well our wage growth is the equivalent to Greece so we’re almost there

 

[golddene]

How about the EU’s constant drive to enlarge itself taking on shithole countries?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...arting-accession-talks-with-macedonia-albania

Albania FFS........

Wasn't the Common market instigated to improve the lives of the citizens of its member states?
One thing I've learned during my lifetime is....... if you live in a shit house and do nothing you'll always live in a shit house. The same goes for lesser countries, if they're shift holes and you do nothing they'll always be shit holes.

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

there are several Japanese banks so doubt one might be opening Frankfurt operations. however i read this month one of them Sumitomo, signed new lease in London, joining Deutsche Bank, Bank of America and others that have extended leases well into the next decade. smaller but significant Estonian bank LHV has announced its opening operations in UK. its a very fluid situation for the sector.

Just as The Titanic was a very fluid situation?

 

[Titanic]

Just as The Titanic was a very fluid situation?

I don't think the fluids were the problem.

 

[scamander]

there are several Japanese banks so doubt one might be opening Frankfurt operations. however i read this month one of them Sumitomo, signed new lease in London, joining Deutsche Bank, Bank of America and others that have extended leases well into the next decade. smaller but significant Estonian bank LHV has announced its opening operations in UK. its a very fluid situation for the sector.

The Deutsche bank one can be read a couple of ways. The primary need for the lease is to provide a single address for a number of its London offices (all moving to one destination). With the exact situation yet unclear I would expect many banks to have considered options abroad as a backup plan.

 

[A1X]

That’s as maybe, but Corbyn as PM is likely to be far more destabilising for the City than Brexit.

The legions of pro EU Tory supporters on this board who are constantly waving a flag that the City will not cope with Brexit are demonstrating woeful ignorance. With Labour in and Corbyn as PM its Brexit + socialism.

It will be more Tax, nationalisation and much more regulation on markets and bonuses that will ultimately see off the fat cats. I can’t wait!

Hasta la Victoria Siempere.....

I don't claim to speak for any business leaders or tycoons or any description, but the vibe I'm getting is many would rather have Corbyn while inside the Single Market than not Corbyn but outside it. The fact John McDonnell gets an audience in the City is testament enough to that.

 

[Albumen]

First Brexit poll for many months, Mods can you let it run for a few days before merging with the other thread.

Some on the Brexit thread are convinced Brexit wont happen, have they got their finger on the pulse? Or just inserting it inappropriately?

It won't happen as Parliament isn't that stupid.