[Albion] Will 6 More Points Be Enough?

[nwgull]

At game week 30 of the 06/07 season, the bottom end looked like this;
View attachment 125205

By the end, West Ham went on a fantastic run, and the Blades went down on 38 points, due to a poorer goal difference to Wigan (by a single goal).

Taking a look at the PPG over the final 8 games...

2.250 West Ham
1.125 City
1.000 Watford
0.875 Charlton, Sheffield Utd
0.625 Wigan, Fulham

Interesting. That's a hell of a run by West Ham - that was the season where Tevez's registration with them was a bit suspect, wasn't it? Not really a precedent for a situation where 38 points won't be enough for this year though, as there were only 3 teams with a ppg of <1 at the same stage; this year there are 5!

 

[GT49er]

I think so - you can see one team going on a run - but 2 teams going on that kind of run is extremely unlikely. Personally think 4 points will be OK

If we get six more points, then it will require three teams, not two, to go on 'that sort of run'. One might, two might, but three? Surely not.

 

[mashman156]

8 points needed

Will be a high number this year

On that basis, if we get 7 points from the last 8 games with our goal difference significantly better than Villa and Bournemouth they will effectively need 13 and 14 points respectively from their last 8 games. Seems a pretty big ask to me.

 

[nwgull]

On that basis, if we get 7 points from the last 8 games with our goal difference significantly better than Villa and Bournemouth they will effectively need 13 and 14 points respectively from their last 8 games. Seems a pretty big ask to me.

And one of West Ham and Watford would also require 13 and 12 points respectively. That's the main reason that 38 points will be plenty: it's not dependent on just one team; it requires 3 of the 4 teams below us to have run ins that are way better than their ppg so far.

 

[stewart12]

Interesting. That's a hell of a run by West Ham - that was the season where Tevez's registration with them was a bit suspect, wasn't it? Not really a precedent for a situation where 38 points won't be enough for this year though, as there were only 3 teams with a ppg of <1 at the same stage; this year there are 5!

I think that season was a bit of an anomaly- West Ham had an alright team and one world class player (not just a good Premier League player but a genuine world class one) who turned it on when it mattered and dragged them to safety. Pretty sure they had to win at Old Trafford on the last day of the season and Tevez bagged a winner?

I can't see anyone in the currenty West Ham or Bournemouth squads capable of that

 

[essbee1]

and we need to factor in the 'impossible 3 pts' scenarios, where two of the bottom teams cannot both win.

 

[Bozza]

At game week 30 of the 06/07 season, the bottom end looked like this;
View attachment 125205

By the end, West Ham went on a fantastic run, and the Blades went down on 38 points, due to a poorer goal difference to Wigan (by a single goal).

Taking a look at the PPG over the final 8 games...

2.250 West Ham
1.125 City
1.000 Watford
0.875 Charlton, Sheffield Utd
0.625 Wigan, Fulham

One of the 5Live commentators said during lockdown he'd been looking at how the Premier League table changes from match 30 onwards.

As it turns out, it doesn't change much at all in the key positions at the top and bottom of the table. I'm pretty sure he said that over the last nine seasons, there had been only four changes in the bottom three from match 30 to the end of the season.

 

[FatSuperman]

Interesting. That's a hell of a run by West Ham - that was the season where Tevez's registration with them was a bit suspect, wasn't it? Not really a precedent for a situation where 38 points won't be enough for this year though, as there were only 3 teams with a ppg of <1 at the same stage; this year there are 5!

Absolutely agree with you.

If we set everyone's target to 37, then this is the PPG each team needs to achieve (and where they are now)



As we can see, everybody above the red line (us) would have to take a significant dip in overall form, and everybody below the line would need varying degrees of improvement. It seems highly unlikely that enough will go on a good run to overtake us. Assuming we don't absolutely crash and burn.

 

[Jim in the West]

and we need to factor in the 'impossible 3 pts' scenarios, where two of the bottom teams cannot both win.

Good point. Although I just checked, and there don't seem that many. Ignoring our game with Norwich, they are:

7th July Watford v Norwich
11th July Norwich v West Ham
15th July West Ham v Watford
26th July West Ham v Villa

So, if West Ham are going to escape they will probably only do so by beating other teams around them.

Just had a look at Bournemouth and Villa's fixtures - they certainly look challenging (esp Bournemouth).

 

[LlcoolJ]

Good thread this.

I was talking about this yesterday and said at the time 6 points would definitely do it. I think it will be lower that will end up being enough but I'd prefer to get to 38 and not be SHITTING it come the end of the season.

And I think we will do it.

Watford will get out of it. Norwich are down. I'll shed no tears for any two of Villa (massively entitled fans, spent a fortune, Grealish is a ****), West Ham (entitled fans and players, shithouse owners, spent a fortune, taxpayers stadium) or Smug's Boys (PLB, CHEATS, Smug Eddie) getting the chop.

 

[Seasidesage]

Absolutely agree with you.

If we set everyone's target to 37, then this is the PPG each team needs to achieve (and where they are now)

View attachment 125208

As we can see, everybody above the red line (us) would have to take a significant dip in overall form, and everybody below the line would need varying degrees of improvement. It seems highly unlikely that enough will go on a good run to overtake us. Assuming we don't absolutely crash and burn.

This nails it really. The bottom three would need to all go on close to Europa League type qualification form and we would need to do less than approx half the return we have managed to this point to be relegated.

 

[Jim D]

The league will almost certainly have been won by Liverpool by the time we play them both and a natural drop off in intensity by both of them will hopefully mean we won’t be hammered by too many.
I think our defence is good enough to keep it down to single figures in both games.

So, no more than 9 goals against then?

 

[FatSuperman]

This nails it really. The bottom three would need to all go on close to Europa League type qualification form and we would need to do less than approx half the return we have managed to this point to be relegated.

Now we just wait for a wiseacre to come along to say "OH OK GUYS. Shall we tell the team not to bother then?! IT'S NOT OVER TIL IT'S OVER FFS"

 

[Seasidesage]

Now we just wait for a wiseacre to come along to say "OH OK GUYS. Shall we tell the team not to bother then?! IT'S NOT OVER TIL IT'S OVER FFS"

One game at a time...

 

[The_Viper]

38 points would have kept you up in 18 of the last 21 seasons - 86%
37 points would have kept you up in 17 of the last 21 seasons - 81%
36 points would have kept you up in 12 of the last 21 seasons - 57%
35 points would have kept you up in 11 of the last 21 seasons - 52%
34 points would have kept you up in 7 of the last 21 seasons - 33%

You’d have to say law of averages and the form and points tally’s of the teams below us mean 1 more win is probably enough, 2 and we are almost certainly safe.

This, well done for getting the stats down, I am of the opinion that the magical 40 points mark is more likely 38 these days. I can't remember if it was Gus, Oscar or maybe even Bloom who said in the Championship they considered 2 points per game to be guaranteed promotion, I would say 1 point per game in the PL is as close to guaranteed safety as you can get.

 

[fleet]

It isn’t easy to call. Watford look the best and have a chance to make as many as 40 points. West Ham have enough quality and Bournemouth (although they looked dire at the weekend) have too - they could both rally to 38 or more. Villa - I can’t see it personally, they play well but have done all season without consistent point scoring - I can’t see them getting more than 37. The big thing is that maybe 2 of them go on a run, but we would be very unlucky if they all did.

So I think it’s a very high chance that 2 more wins will do it, but just maybe it will not!

 

[schmunk]

Smug's Boys (PLB, CHEATS, Smug Eddie) getting the chop.

The "PLB" got me thinking, to realise that when they are relegated to the Championship (and Luton are relegated to League 1), they'll still have the smallest stadium capacity in their league...

 

[FatSuperman]

The "PLB" got me thinking, to realise that when they are relegated to the Championship (and Luton are relegated to League 1), they'll still have the smallest stadium capacity in their league...

How far down do they have to go to be a 'big club' ?

 

[dwayne]

Last weekend was a carlsberg one for sure. And I think we will stay up now.

Everyone jolly jolly on this thread. But don't forget our next 5 fixtures are a nightmare. Could look very different after that especially if we fook up against Norwich !!

3 points in the next 5 games should be enough. Then maybe another 3 in the last 3 games.

Sent from my SM-G977N using Tapatalk

 

[schmunk]

How far down do they have to go to be a 'big club' ?

They'd be bottom-third in League 1 (https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/league-one/stadien/wettbewerb/GB3), and only 7th largest in League 2 (https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/league-one/stadien/wettbewerb/GB4)...