[Albion] Will 6 More Points Be Enough?

[SeagullinExile]

West Ham - Villa last game of the season could be a big help tbh.

 

[OzMike]

I reckoned 10 points from our remaining 9 games before yesterday. Sticking with that we now need 7 from 8 IMHO. 40 always seems the season starting target for 60 odd percent of PL teams, but 39 should do us this year

This and I hope the GD doesn't get battered by City, Utd, Pool etc.

 

[Pevenseagull]

they'll reinstate the 5 extra points we should have had against Villa , knock 4 off of them....see reason and let it go to the wire

 

[nickjhs]

Can we still qualify for The Europa League?

Statsbro your posts makes youse legend innit. Yeah we can innit blud.

 

[nickjhs]

I’m actually sorry Norwich are going to go, they try to play football.

And this is why we deserve to stay, when we certainly didn't last season. If we stay up with a full year of refining Potterball and the exciting youngsters coming together next season should be a good one without any fear of relegation.

 

[The Wookiee]

That is to preserve our Premier League status for next season. With all the results going our way this weekend and us having a 5 point cushion to the bottom three is suddenly a huge boost to our survival hopes. So will 38 points do the trick? With a huge goal difference in our favour against our rivals I am now feeling a bit more optimistic about the upcoming fixtures. One win and perhaps three draws in eight games is do-able. I just hope I’m not being over confident in my assessment.

Our goal difference would be greatly reduced if we had only one more win, especially with Man City and Liverpool still to play

 

[Icy Gull]

Why? It'll be more than enough, and it's a sure sign that we're entering the end of the season, because you're getting more uppity, and posting morose comments like this.
Just to justify my claim: there are currently FIVE teams that are amassing less than a point a game. There will need to be three of them (assuming we don't make it, which I suspect is motivating your odd answer) that reach a point per game by the end of the season in order for the survival total to reach 38 (which you doubt will be enough). That means that three of them will not only have to start reaching a point per game over the next eight games, but they'll have to exceed it.
If you really think 38 points won't be enough, why not back up your claim by going LARGE on a spread bet firm on the survival total? That'll be a more productive use of your energies. And, while we're on this, why don't you find your posts from recent seasons indicating your viewpoint at a similar stage of the season of the survival points total, and then compare this with the actual required survival points total?

Morose comments and uppity whilst expecting us to go down? You really do cherry pick my comments for your occasional little digs don’t you? I haven’t said we won’t get the required points and I have had faith in GP since the beginning of the season. Not yet ready to state that we are staying up though and I have not written off all except one of the teams going on an unlikely run

I reckon that I am one of the more positive posters this season and haven’t, as far as I’m aware, complained about what GP is trying to do at any stage of the season.

 

[Simster]

Morose comments and uppity whilst expecting us to go down? You really do cherry pick my comments for your occasional little digs don’t you? I haven’t said we won’t get the required points and I have had faith in GP since the beginning of the season. Not yet ready to state that we are staying up though and I have not written off all except one of the teams going on an unlikely run

I reckon that I am one of the more positive posters this season and haven’t, as far as I’m aware, complained about what GP is trying to do at any stage of the season.

I don't think there is much wrong with your posts as you're a natural pessimist, but this bit is absolutely not true!

Personally I wouldn't want to hazard a guess as to how many points are enough, but I agree with the bookies - Arsenal was just about winnable, and because we won when none of the other relegation-threatened teams didn't, I can't see us going down now. If the price being offered is now 11/1, that suggests the chances of it happening are closer to 15/1. If we get a point at Leicester tomorrow, those odds will rise further.

Put it this way, Norwich have no chance of catching us, Villa have 8 games left and it will take them a minimum of 3 of those games just to overhaul us. West Ham are dire and both Bournemouth and Watford have a lot to do to catch up. Our fixture list is difficult but that applies to one or two other teams too. Personally I think we will finish 4 or 5 clear of the bottom 3.

 

[el punal]

38 points would have kept you up in 18 of the last 21 seasons - 86%
37 points would have kept you up in 17 of the last 21 seasons - 81%
36 points would have kept you up in 12 of the last 21 seasons - 57%
35 points would have kept you up in 11 of the last 21 seasons - 52%
34 points would have kept you up in 7 of the last 21 seasons - 33%

You’d have to say law of averages and the form and points tally’s of the teams below us mean 1 more win is probably enough, 2 and we are almost certainly safe.

Thanks for the stats, it sort of justifies my faith in needing the magic 38 points.

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

This and I hope the GD doesn't get battered by City, Utd, Pool etc.

It hasn't done thus far.

 

[AlbionBro]

37 points will be enough with the best GD.

I would go with this, we have a good balance of players who want it enough and Potter seems to keep them on their toes, so I feel 37 with our excellent GD will do it.

 

[deslynhamsmoustache1]

36 will be enough, possibly even 35. The only team below us that I think have the ability, organisation and form to overtake us now is Watford.

Nigel Pearson has the experience to lead Watford to safety (remember Leicester's great escape).One team will go on a remarkable run and pick up points where least expected................. and I think that team will be us.

 

[nwgull]

Thanks for the stats, it sort of justifies my faith in needing the magic 38 points.

I'd be interested in seeing what the table looked like with 8 games to go in the seasons where 38 points (and a good GD) wasn't enough. I'm sure someone with more time on their hands than me can dig it out, but I'm going to guess that there weren't 5 teams with 28 points or fewer at this stage.

 

[saafend_seagull]

37 due to goal difference but our easier games are at the end (how many wins in last 4 years have we had from final 3 games) so we need another freak result against Leicester or Man U.

My guess is Norwich, bournemouth and villa (West Ham beating villa last day to finish them)


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[southstandandy]

6 points could well be enough as long as our GD doesn't take a hammering. Wins away to Norwich and at home to Newcastle are the ones we need and an odd draw somewhere would be useful. Should see us past 38 points and hopfully safety. Feel slightly more confident now not just because of our result (but also due to most of the other teams around us losing at the weekend) than I did before the restart. A rare point at Leicester would be nice!

 

[blue-shifted]

This and I hope the GD doesn't get battered by City, Utd, Pool etc.

There's been no evidence this season, that we're the sort of team that gets beaten heavily. There's clearly good team spirit. If we did go, say 3 down at half time against City, I don't see in our team that heads would go down and we'd lose by 6 or 7.

 

[nicko31]

Assuming we don't get absolutely thumped, 6 pts plus our GD will be fine

 

[piersa]

38 points would have kept you up in 18 of the last 21 seasons - 86%
37 points would have kept you up in 17 of the last 21 seasons - 81%
36 points would have kept you up in 12 of the last 21 seasons - 57%
35 points would have kept you up in 11 of the last 21 seasons - 52%
34 points would have kept you up in 7 of the last 21 seasons - 33%

You’d have to say law of averages and the form and points tally’s of the teams below us mean 1 more win is probably enough, 2 and we are almost certainly safe.

I knew i'd find some common sense on the thread eventually

 

[Springal]

I think so - you can see one team going on a run - but 2 teams going on that kind of run is extremely unlikely. Personally think 4 points will be OK