[Albion] Will 6 More Points Be Enough?

[Jim in the West]

Last weekend was a carlsberg one for sure. And I think we will stay up now.

Everyone jolly jolly on this thread. But don't forget our next 5 fixtures are a nightmare. Could look very different after that especially if we fook up against Norwich !!l

I think that’s a useful sense check. In 4 or 5 games we could very easily find ourselves back in the mix, and then nerves will start to play a part. Not relaxing yet!!

 

[Jim in the West]

One other thing - there could be a panic sacking. Very unlikely to be Howe or Moyes, for different reasons. And definitely won’t be Pearson (despite Watford’s trigger happy owners....also, Watford will almost certainly stay up). But Villa could easily get rid of Smith...,he looks out of his depth.

 

[sparkie]

One other thing - there could be a panic sacking. Very unlikely to be Howe or Moyes, for different reasons. And definitely won’t be Pearson (despite Watford’s trigger happy owners....also, Watford will almost certainly stay up). But Villa could easily get rid of Smith...,he looks out of his depth.

If Villa lose on Wednesday v Newcastle then Smith could be gone.

 

[LlcoolJ]

If Villa lose on Wednesday v Newcastle then Smith could be gone.

Big Fat Sam has got the email prepared and will be sat watching, pint of wine in hand, just waiting to press SEND.

 

[HalfaSeatOn]

A simple relegation test: if there were 3 matches remaining, who out of the bottom 5 would you prefer us to play to maximise point tally? For me, Norwich, Bournemouth and West Ham.

 

[deslynhamsmoustache1]

A simple relegation test: if there were 3 matches remaining, who out of the bottom 5 would you prefer us to play to maximise point tally? For me, Norwich, Bournemouth and West Ham.

We have a glorious history of $@*%ing it up against lower sides. Prefer to play against mid table. It would be "typical Brighton" to beat Man City and the lose to Norwich.

 

[lawros left foot]

So, no more than 9 goals against then?

It was a very tongue in cheek post.

 

[Hugo Rune]

If Villa lose on Wednesday v Newcastle then Smith could be gone.

Newcastle could have a massive say in the relegation fight as they take on B’Muff, S’Ham & Watford in the next few weeks as well. By the time they play us, I’m hoping we’re playing for pride and prize money.

 

[BluesRockDJ]

pundits on Sky reckon 36 points will be enough

 

[el punal]

Now we just wait for a wiseacre to come along to say "OH OK GUYS. Shall we tell the team not to bother then?! IT'S NOT OVER TIL IT'S OVER FFS"

I think that lesson was learned in the last two months of last season, maybe even earlier.

 

[sparkie]

pundits on Sky reckon 36 points will be enough

They are almost certainly correct. Might even be 35.

 

[pb21]

Last weekend was a carlsberg one for sure. And I think we will stay up now.

Everyone jolly jolly on this thread. But don't forget our next 5 fixtures are a nightmare. Could look very different after that especially if we fook up against Norwich !!

3 points in the next 5 games should be enough. Then maybe another 3 in the last 3 games.

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Before last weekend I was very much on the relegation fence, I am now confident that we will stay up and that 6 points will be more than enough.

 

[Glawstergull]

Just had an "arrogant" look at the fixtures.

I don't think Norwich or Bournemouth will catch us now.

I also think that IF Newcastle beat Villa on Wednesday, then Villa will also finish below us.

I agree totally. If we can win ONE game it means B'muff need to win 3. Looking at their fixtures I cannot see where they might do that. Villa the same.

 

[Stumpy Tim]

Villa fixtures:
Newcastle (a)
Wolves (h)
Liverpool (a)
Man Utd (h)
Palace (h)
Everton (a)
Arsenal (h)
West Ham (a)

Bournemouth Fixtures
Wolves (a)
Newcastle (h)
Man Utd (a)
Tottenham (h)
Leicester (h)
Man City (a)
Southampton (h)
Everton (a)

To get to 36 points, Villa need 10 points from those games, and Bournemouth need 9. It would be surprising if either managed it. If Bournemouth don´t win at least one of their next two they´re screwed. Villa have a slightly easier run-in, but they´re also a terrible football team

 

[Whoislloydy]

A point tomorrow, and 3 points v Man Utd and we're safe IMO.

With Liverpool to win the title in advance of us playing them we could well get 3 points from them if they decided to rest all their big guns for UCL being played in August.

 

[Seasider78]

A point tomorrow, and 3 points v Man Utd and we're safe IMO.

With Liverpool to win the title in advance of us playing them we could well get 3 points from them if they decided to rest all their big guns for UCL being played in August.

I don’t think they will be resting anyone for the champions league!

 

[Moshe Gariani]

35pts is very likely to be enough for us with our GD.

Could easily be that 33pts or 34pts would be too

I'm not remotely worried about us going down. My only frustration is having to read negative toss on NSC about the best squad of players that Albion have ever had (and our excellent manager). So many players to enjoy and playing a brand of football that is so good to watch. We could easily have progressed to being in the 9th-12th group of teams this season and I expect us to make it there next season.

 

[Paulie Gualtieri]

Need to factor players attitudes when they think it’s all over and there’s no point going in for 50/50’s at the risk of getting injured and stopping a move away

With Josh King out will Callum Wilson start taking his foot off the gas at some point as more is expected of him?

Grealish must be thinking of pastures new and I’m sure it plays on his mind. Maybe wearing standard size shin pads will confirm this toward the end of the season?

Suspect some may even feign injury

Some of the squad and fringe will be staying so need to impress for next year / new manager but reckon it could be a factor (albeit difficult to measure)


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[Machiavelli]

Morose comments and uppity whilst expecting us to go down? You really do cherry pick my comments for your occasional little digs don’t you? I haven’t said we won’t get the required points and I have had faith in GP since the beginning of the season. Not yet ready to state that we are staying up though and I have not written off all except one of the teams going on an unlikely run

I reckon that I am one of the more positive posters this season and haven’t, as far as I’m aware, complained about what GP is trying to do at any stage of the season.

Fair play, and apologies. I responded to the comment, rather than the poster, and I think you're probably recognised as one of NSC's good guys. The 100 day-plus break had blissfully erased most of posters' positions on managers/regimes/players/etc but, now you mention it, your positivity about Potter has been prominent while the football chat has been ongoing.
As one or two posters have indicated, the chances of survival requiring 32 or 38 points will both have odds of about 25/1. They're both highly unlikely, and stand by the rationale, but thanks for your response -- measured and justifiable.

 

[Machiavelli]

I'd be interested in seeing what the table looked like with 8 games to go in the seasons where 38 points (and a good GD) wasn't enough. I'm sure someone with more time on their hands than me can dig it out, but I'm going to guess that there weren't 5 teams with 28 points or fewer at this stage.

This is the key question to ask. I'll have to search through the rest of the thread to see if anyone has such time on their hands.