[Albion] Will 6 More Points Be Enough?

[blue-shifted]

Fair play, and apologies. I responded to the comment, rather than the poster, and I think you're probably recognised as one of NSC's good guys. The 100 day-plus break had blissfully erased most of posters' positions on managers/regimes/players/etc but, now you mention it, your positivity about Potter has been prominent while the football chat has been ongoing.
As one or two posters have indicated, the chances of survival requiring 32 or 38 points will both have odds of about 25/1. They're both highly unlikely, and stand by the rationale, but thanks for your response -- measured and justifiable.

I'm not sure you've got the hang of NSC. If someone takes issue with a post, I believe the etiquette, is to retreat ever further into an entrenched position, which you then proceed to defend with increasing bitterness even though you long ceased to believe the words you're typing. All the while, furiously scanning the back catalogue of the poster who called you out to see if you find something to attack him with. Hope this helps.

 

[FatSuperman]

This is the key question to ask. I'll have to search through the rest of the thread to see if anyone has such time on their hands.

Post 58 is the one for you my friend. Posted by some legend or other.



Ah. You've seen it already. Now I feel really stupid.

 

[Icy Gull]

Fair play, and apologies. I responded to the comment, rather than the poster, and I think you're probably recognised as one of NSC's good guys. The 100 day-plus break had blissfully erased most of posters' positions on managers/regimes/players/etc but, now you mention it, your positivity about Potter has been prominent while the football chat has been ongoing.
As one or two posters have indicated, the chances of survival requiring 32 or 38 points will both have odds of about 25/1. They're both highly unlikely, and stand by the rationale, but thanks for your response -- measured and justifiable.

Thanks

 

[Machiavelli]

Post 58 is the one for you my friend. Posted by some legend or other.



Ah. You've seen it already. Now I feel really stupid.

While I'm dishing out compliments on this thread (which is somewhat rare round these quarters ), can I say that you're one of the most incisive contributors on here

 

[keaton]

I wasn't part of this thread but can I say I like this grown up apologising and being reasonable. It'll never catch on

 

[*Gullsworth*]

I wasn't part of this thread but can I say I like this grown up apologising and being reasonable. It'll never catch on

Cos we won Saturday innit

 

[FatSuperman]

While I'm dishing out compliments on this thread (which is somewhat rare round these quarters ), can I say that you're one of the most incisive contributors on here

Oh wow thank you! I think I'm just good at faking it tbh. But either way, I'm putting this quote on my CV

 

[Jolly Red Giant]

The result against Arsenal was a huge result, not just because of the win, but because of the way the rest of the results went on the first game back after lockdown - there is now a gap and the momentum is with Brighton - of the bottom six Brighton are by far and away the most likely to stay up.And without Fraser Bournemouth looked f*cked

 

[Blue3]

I always look at goal differance as a guide we are currently -7 while all those below us are - double digits as are Southampton and Burnley who are currently above us

 

[sparkie]

I am prepared for Watford and Villa wins this round of matches.

Let's hope Spurs don't mess it up v West Ham tonight, though.

So the table may look worse before we finally cross line, but 4 more points should do it, 6 more to be almost certain.

 

[Machiavelli]

Oh wow thank you! I think I'm just good at faking it tbh. But either way, I'm putting this quote on my CV

Don't: it comes from a disreputable source.

 

[Iovan The Sweeper]

4 more points, taking us to 36, should be enough - especially as our GD is so good.

It's hard to imagine three of the teams below us would all go on a spectacular run which goes against anything they've been capable of this season.

One team maybe, two possibly, but not three.

Watford (6 wins in 30 games) would need to win 3 in 8 games
West Ham and Bournemouth (7 wins) would need to win 3, and get a draw in another
Villa (7 wins) would need to win 3, and get 2 draws

Also West Ham are playing Villa and Watford, so that reduces the number of games for three teams to overtake us.

That Arsenal win was massive for confidence, so whilst it's not over yet, we should be fine from here.

 

[sparkie]

Now 5 points !

However, maybe just ONE win will do it !


Let's get it vs Man Utd.

 

[blue-shifted]

Now 5 points !

However, maybe just ONE win will do it !


Let's get it vs Man Utd.

Down to about 10-1 that we've got enough points already

 

[djentist]

A win and two draws will do it, possibly even a win and a draw. Can't see three teams getting 10 points in their last 8 games, taking into account the fact several teams below us play each other.

 

[Jim in the West]

Effectively 7 points ahead of West Ham (with our much better GD) with 7 games to go. They definitely have an easier run in than us, but are they going to make up 7 points?

 

[dazzer6666]

Effectively 7 points ahead of West Ham (with our much better GD) with 7 games to go. They definitely have an easier run in than us, but are they going to make up 7 points?

If they do, it’ll have to be at the expense of Villa, Watford and Norwich probably, so we gain that way anyway......

 

[sparkie]

Effectively 7 points ahead of West Ham (with our much better GD) with 7 games to go. They definitely have an easier run in than us, but are they going to make up 7 points?

Their easier run in is when we play Liverpool and Man City, they play Burnley and Norwich. So they could gain 6 points on us on those 2 rounds of matches. Other than that, their run in is no easier than ours.

Regardless, if Newcastle beat Villa tomorrow, and Bournemouth don't win v Wolves, then we are nearly over the line.

 

[Machiavelli]

If they do, it’ll have to be at the expense of Villa, Watford and Norwich probably, so we gain that way anyway......

Exactly, as I pointed out the other day (ie before the further point), there are FIVE teams below us, and now there's a substantial points gap (enhanced by GD) between us and them. The likelihood of THREE of them overhauling us is, at best, minimal.

 

[blue-shifted]

Effectively 7 points ahead of West Ham (with our much better GD) with 7 games to go. They definitely have an easier run in than us, but are they going to make up 7 points?

Will they get 7 points?