This time last season

[Triggaaar]

To some extent, form, injuries, suspensions but mostly my confidence (Newcastle now a win vs a draw before yesterday)

I just saw predicted wins against Newcastle and Forest which I think you had as draws before. Seems like cherry picking

 

[Rugrat]

I just saw predicted wins against Newcastle and Forest which I think you had as draws before. Seems like cherry picking

Some and some. I genuinely think we'll be Newcastle now (we looked much more assured yesterday than I expected and I'm assuming Gayle will be out which I see as a big loss for them) As for Forest it was a bit of a contingency but we really should beat them. .

I don't think any of these predictions are wildy ambitious but with a 55% hit rate many will be wrong ofc ... but they do tend to even themselves out ... we'll see

 

[warmleyseagull]

Some and some. I genuinely think we'll be Newcastle now (we looked much more assured yesterday than I expected and I'm assuming Gayle will be out which I see as a big loss for them) As for Forest it was a bit of a contingency but we really should beat them. . I don't think any of these predictions are wildy ambitious but with a 55% hit rate many will be wrong ofc ... but they do tend to even themselves out ... we'll see

Maybe not wildly ambitious individually but the overall picture looks wrong to me. Six teams with 80+ points looks too many. In the last 6 seasons, the highest points for 6th was 78. And three teams with 95+ points? Nah, that is not going to happen. The problem with game by game prediction is that it does not allow for changes in form, injuries etc - doubt anyone would have predicted Huddersfield's recent run doing this exercise on 1 Jan, for example.

 

[Rugrat]

Maybe not wildly ambitious individually but the overall picture looks wrong to me. Six teams with 80+ points looks too many. In the last 6 seasons, the highest points for 6th was 78. And three teams with 95+ points? Nah, that is not going to happen. The problem with game by game prediction is that it does not allow for changes in form, injuries etc - doubt anyone would have predicted Huddersfield's recent run doing this exercise on 1 Jan, for example.

As I said to Trigg's I do adjust as I go along to take account of form, injuries, suspensions etc and I don't disagree that the points may be a bit high but (from experience) the 'upsets' do tend to spread temselves fairly evenly, particulalry at this stage of the season.

You're right about Hudd's and Jan 1 but, inevitabely, the nearer we get to the end the less likely there is error

As you rightly point out in 2014/15 78 points was needed so 80 isn't out of the realms of possibility but knocking 3/4 points off across the board would give a more realistic picture perhaps? In saying that, as games run out there's less opportunity for these 'upsets' to have any material impact

 

[chaileyjem]

So Game 33 for us last season was that thumping of Bristol City away from home.
We remained fourth. Next game up was the 4-0 defeat of Leeds and a pretty good undefeated run-in

So this time last season we're +11 points (no change on last week), + 20 Goal Diff (-1), and we're 1st (2nd) not 4th.

 

[warmleyseagull]

As I said to Trigg's I do adjust as I go along to take account of form, injuries, suspensions etc and I don't disagree that the points may be a bit high but (from experience) the 'upsets' do tend to spread temselves fairly evenly, particulalry at this stage of the season.

You're right about Hudd's and Jan 1 but, inevitabely, the nearer we get to the end the less likely there is error

As you rightly point out in 2014/15 78 points was needed so 80 isn't out of the realms of possibility but knocking 3/4 points off across the board would give a more realistic picture perhaps? In saying that, as games run out there's less opportunity for these 'upsets' to have any material impact

Yes, 3-4 points off here and there would seem more correct, but equally we might see 3-4 points more for some others - Fulham, Preston perhaps? It is not so much about 'upsets' but a loss of form overall. I am thinking Derby and Villa here; your point about upsets being less material as games run out is surely right, but there is still time with 13 games for at least one team to fall out of contention entirely with a string of poor results that defy current form to be replaced by another that has a positive string of currently unpredictable results.

TBH, I am not entirely convinced of the game by game approach; I dont see how you can build in periods of strong and weak form into this format (Huddersfield currently vs, Huddersfield in Nov/Dec when they lost at home to Wigan FFS, for example). Your methodology inevitably extrapolates from the present, but it doesn't work like that in practice.

 

[warmleyseagull]

So Game 33 for us last season was that thumping of Bristol City away from home.
We remained fourth. Next game up was the 4-0 defeat of Leeds and a pretty good undefeated run-in

So this time last season we're +11 points (no change on last week), + 20 Goal Diff (-1), and we're 1st (2nd) not 4th.

View attachment 82517

And the top placed side had to make do with POs....

 

[Rugrat]

Yes, 3-4 points off here and there would seem more correct, but equally we might see 3-4 points more for some others - Fulham, Preston perhaps? It is not so much about 'upsets' but a loss of form overall. I am thinking Derby and Villa here; your point about upsets being less material as games run out is surely right, but there is still time with 13 games for at least one team to fall out of contention entirely with a string of poor results that defy current form to be replaced by another that has a positive string of currently unpredictable results.

TBH, I am not entirely convinced of the game by game approach; I dont see how you can build in periods of strong and weak form into this format (Huddersfield currently vs, Huddersfield in Nov/Dec when they lost at home to Wigan FFS, for example). Your methodology inevitably extrapolates from the present, but it doesn't work like that in practice.

I get all of that and until the last game of the season there's no way I'd try to defend the methodology as anywhere near a precise science.

Said it before but I see it more as a 'what if' then a 'predictor' ... looking at it that way it works perfectly

 

[CheeseRolls]

Slightly late with this update..




Still a full 8 points better than last year. Keep the faith we can and will do this!

 

[perseus]

If Huddersfield do as well as Burnley last season 13 games they will get 96 pts. 3 more than Burnley finished with.

If that happens Leeds will have to win 12 successive games and hope that Newcastle and Brighton don't get uncatchable.

http://www.thefishy.co.uk/calculator0.php?Competition=2

I can't see Newcastle getting less than 95 pts.

 

[CheeseRolls]

Anyone want to see some comparison tables? No, me neither.




What a crap week!

 

[CheeseRolls]

Good news

The Hull collapse is complete, so we no longer need to consider - well Hull blew it from here last season.

Last season we finished with GD+30 with a fantastic run in. This looks a tall ask for Huddersfield.

Here is the latest ELO rating from http://clubelo.com/Brighton

 

[supaseagull]

If we come out of the next two games with 6 points then I will make the bold statement to say we will win the league. Newcastles run in is horrendous and the toughest of all three top clubs. However I think Huddersfield have the easier of the three and could go unbeaten


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[saafend_seagull]

If we come out of the next two games with 6 points then I will make the bold statement to say we will win the league. Newcastles run in is horrendous and the toughest of all three top clubs. However I think Huddersfield have the easier of the three and could go unbeaten


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Their run in is not so bad, home games against Wigan, Burton and Barnsley are 9 points right there. Also away to Birmingham is a guaranteed three points.

Why do people keep comparing to last season? Its irrelevant. Third place has three more points with a game in hand compared to the previous season. That's the only relevance.

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[Joshski]

Their run in is not so bad, home games against Wigan, Burton and Barnsley are 9 points right there. Also away to Birmingham is a guaranteed three points.

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Don't be so sure that they will pick up 9 points, Burton are competitive as the MASSIVE will vouch for after last night

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

View attachment 82183
View attachment 82184

Interesting that five games later we've picked up 9 points, Hudds have picked up 7 from a game less, so despite our shit run we've extended our lead

 

[Official Old Man]

Bold statement.
Burton (because I like them) to DRAW v Newcastle.

 

[Greg Bobkin]

One game at a time. Anything could happen.

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[CheeseRolls]

Their run in is not so bad, home games against Wigan, Burton and Barnsley are 9 points right there. Also away to Birmingham is a guaranteed three points.

Why do people keep comparing to last season? Its irrelevant. Third place has three more points with a game in hand compared to the previous season. That's the only relevance.

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What exactly were you expecting on a thread titled this time last season?

 

[symyjym]

It’s nuts that in 2013 we finished 4th with 75 and Hull got autos with 79, and Cardiff ran away with it with 87

I think we’re going to need at least 94, 2 points a game, and for Huddersfield to draw 3 games. Not a lot to ask really