This time last season

[chaileyjem]

So Game 37 for us last season was a 1-0 H win over Reading scored by James Wilson (remember him).
This put us in second briefly. Next up (38) was *that* A win over MK Dons. We all remember that one.
So we're still +9 points and +16 GD from 2016/17. Nine games to go...

 

[CheeseRolls]

[MENTION=24867]chaileyjem[/MENTION] has posted last season above, so now for this season;


Last season 8 points between first and fourth.
This season it is 10, stating the obvious but this is a three horse race.

Last season 74 Burnley on 78 points were 8 points clear. This season they would be third, with a goal difference far superior to Huddersfield, even if they win that game in hand.
Still all to play for, though as relatively low scorers Huddersfield should really be drawing more games.

 

[whitelion]

[MENTION=24867]chaileyjem[/MENTION] has posted last season above, so now for this season;
View attachment 82779

Last season 8 points between first and fourth.
This season it is 10, stating the obvious but this is a three horse race.

Last season 74 Burnley on 78 points were 8 points clear. This season they would be third, with a goal difference far superior to Huddersfield, even if they win that game in hand.
Still all to play for, though as relatively low scorers Huddersfield should really be drawing more games.

Looks like 11 to me.

 

[warmleyseagull]

If we come out of the next two games with 6 points then I will make the bold statement to say we will win the league. Newcastles run in is horrendous and the toughest of all three top clubs. However I think Huddersfield have the easier of the three and could go unbeaten


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The relative difficulty of the run-ins is in danger of becoming another NSC myth. Fact is that there is not much difference. The mean position in the current League table of the three teams' opponents in the final games of the season is: Newcastle 13.9; Huddersfield 14.2; Albion 15.2. So ours is marginally easier but hardly significant. To say Newcastle's run in is horrendous compared to ours and Udders' is over egging.

It is the CURRENT form of the opponents that is most relevant, for example Derby are toilet presently and on current form a win last night should have been as nailed on as against Burton.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

The relative difficulty of the run-ins is in danger of becoming another NSC myth. Fact is that there is not much difference. The mean position in the current League table of the three teams' opponents in the final games of the season is: Newcastle 13.9; Huddersfield 14.2; Albion 15.2. So ours is marginally easier but hardly significant. To say Newcastle's run in is horrendous compared to ours and Udders' is over egging.

It is the CURRENT form of the opponents that is most relevant, for example Derby are toilet presently and on current form a win last night should have been as nailed on as against Burton.

It is not the mean that is important here. It is the individual teams (positions). Woul you rather play 10 teams in the middle of the table, or the top 5 and the bottom 5? The mean is exactly the same. But on a quid pro quo* basis, we might expect to beat all the bottom 5 and middle ten (drawing a couple) and lose to most of the top 5.

*down down deeper and down

 

[dazzer6666]

The relative difficulty of the run-ins is in danger of becoming another NSC myth. Fact is that there is not much difference. The mean position in the current League table of the three teams' opponents in the final games of the season is: Newcastle 13.9; Huddersfield 14.2; Albion 15.2. So ours is marginally easier but hardly significant. To say Newcastle's run in is horrendous compared to ours and Udders' is over egging.

It is the CURRENT form of the opponents that is most relevant, for example Derby are toilet presently and on current form a win last night should have been as nailed on as against Burton.

Starting to think Toon's home form could be their undoing. The pressure there now will now be immense and they're aren't functioning well at home.

 

[warmleyseagull]

Starting to think Toon's home form could be their undoing. The pressure there now will now be immense and they're aren't functioning well at home.

Exactly. People are missing this point. Their home form (W11 D2 L5) is 7th best in division, only one point better than Villa's and worse than Norwich's. If their away form were the same PPG, Toon would only just be in POs. They have Leeds, PNE, and Barnsley as final three home games, all of which are losable games.

 

[warmleyseagull]

It is not the mean that is important here. It is the individual teams (positions). Woul you rather play 10 teams in the middle of the table, or the top 5 and the bottom 5? The mean is exactly the same. But on a quid pro quo* basis, we might expect to beat all the bottom 5 and middle ten (drawing a couple) and lose to most of the top 5.

*down down deeper and down

I have worked on mean individual teams' position, can't think of a better way of comparing. Take your point, but mine was to refute the claim that the run-ins are very different, and that is true however you dice and slice it.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I have worked on mean individual teams' position, can't think of a better way of comparing. Take your point, but mine was to refute the claim that the run-ins are very different, and that is true however you dice and slice it.

I take your point but the mean has different meaning according to the spread. I would rather play 10 mid team sides rather than 5 top 5 and 5 bottom 5, so it really is an issue. This is what happens when you have a small sample size. No worries. All the best.

 

[trueblue]

So Game 37 for us last season was a 1-0 H win over Reading scored by James Wilson (remember him).
This put us in second briefly. Next up (38) was *that* A win over MK Dons. We all remember that one.
So we're still +9 points and +16 GD from 2016/17. Nine games to go...

View attachment 82767

What I like most about this - without getting into all the maths - is the fact that it was so tight between 2nd and 3rd at this stage last season and yet it was so tough to stay in contention right to the end. Helps me overcome my natural pessimism when I think that Huddersfield have much, much more to do than we did - even though they're getting some very good results.

 

[CheeseRolls]

No one fancied bouncing this thread then? Strange because predictions that last season's total were irrelevant and would be swept by a rampant top three suddenly look a little premature.



Last season's top 6 were comfortable at this stage.
This season Massive can't shake off Fulham, who failed to gain ground yesterday.

We are six points ahead of schedule, but the Goal difference gap is starting to close. Fortunately Huddersfield are well off the pace in this respect.
We could really do with a couple of winnable home games now, to steady the nerves.

 

[neilbard]

No one fancied bouncing this thread then? Strange because predictions that last season's total were irrelevant and would be swept by a rampant top three suddenly look a little premature.

View attachment 82972
View attachment 82973
Last season's top 6 were comfortable at this stage.
This season Massive can't shake off Fulham, who failed to gain ground yesterday.

We are six points ahead of schedule, but the Goal difference gap is starting to close. Fortunately Huddersfield are well off the pace in this respect.
We could really do with a couple of winnable home games now, to steady the nerves.

That would be some feat if Huddersfield or Leeds managed to turn the goal difference around.

 

[saafend_seagull]

Leeds have a ridiculously hard run in. We just have to somehow win these two home games and hope Norwich can nick a draw against Huddersfield. Need Norwich to match Sheffield Wednesdays result before they play huddersfield. Also a Norwich point against villa ends villas late play off push.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[GoldWithFalmer]

You can look at past tables and form guides until one is blue in the face,the fact is in April,well aside from the Derby v Qpr game on the last Friday this month the season starts in April-

Whoever is capable to having the best run of form in April will prevail.

 

[chaileyjem]

Game 39 last season was also a sunny 3pm at the Amex and had the heart wrenching conclusion of Michael Keane, who had a good game for England during the week, heading in an equaliser for Burnley.
This left us in 3rd with 7 games left behind Boro and Burnley.
Our next game (game 40) was v Birmingham. Another 2-1 will do v.nicely.

So we're currently +8 points, + 14 GD

 

[Weststander]

Game 39 last season was also a sunny 3pm at the Amex and had the heart wrenching conclusion of Michael Keane, who had a good game for England during the week, heading in an equaliser for Burnley.
This left us in 3rd with 7 games left behind Boro and Burnley.
Our next game (game 40) was v Birmingham. Another 2-1 will do v.nicely.

So we're currently +8 points, + 14 GD

View attachment 83460

Our 80 points tonight, compared to 72 this time last season, says it all.

An amazing position. Huddersfield, Reading, Leeds, etc must surely be resigned to the play-offs now?

 

[chaileyjem]

here we are side by side now Dirty Leeds have dropped to fourth. Poor Leeds.

 

[whitelion]

here we are side by side now Dirty Leeds have dropped to fourth. Poor Leeds.

View attachment 83461

Looks like fifth to me.

 

[Ernest]

Game 39 last season was also a sunny 3pm at the Amex

Was a LUNCHTIME kick off on SKY

 

[LamieRobertson]

April 2nd last year?