This time last season

[Peter Grummit]

I watch a lot of 1 day cricket and there is a golden rule that once the required rate goes above 12 per over (2 per ball) it is virtually impossible to win. This is not absolute, of course, and doesn't necessarily apply once you are down to the last couple of overs. But, statistically, it holds up well.

There is a case for arguing the equivalent in football is that teams who are more than 1 point behind per game remaining won't catch us. To reiterate, for those who skim read and jump to the wrong conclusion, this is not ABSOLUTE. But statistically it is very likely.
If applied, it suggests Derby and those below won't catch us. It suggests we are virtually guarantee a playoff place. The betting market and the 361 model support this.

PG

Sent from my SM-G900F using Tapatalk

 

[Exile]

Interesting to see we are only a few points from this time last season, game more played yes, but we steamrollered the next few, and to see Reading, Leeds and Huddersfield together at the wrong end of the table.

13-02-2016

View attachment 82135

13-02-2017

EIGHT more points, is not 'a few'.

 

[bhanutz]

I like that we are getting near to full strength and with Solly and Knocky on the wings, we look a real threat going forward. Dale in the middle makes a huge difference.

I am slightly more confident than I was a couple of weeks ago, even with Huddersfields form.

If we can keep all our key players fit, I strongly believe we will be going us as champions....

 

[Sussex Nomad]

EIGHT more points, is not 'a few'.

As I said, the statto table was incorrect, hence I posted the correct table.

 

[perseus]

If Huddersfield do a Burnley they will get 96 pts. (Their fixture list looks hard, so so did ours last season.)

http://www.statto.com/football/teams/huddersfield-town/2016-2017/results

http://www.statto.com/football/teams/burnley/2015-2016/results

http://www.statto.com/football/teams/brighton-and-hove-albion/2015-2016/table/2016-02-09

 

[Sussex Nomad]

If Huddersfield do a Burnley they will get 96 pts. (Their fixture list looks hard, so so did ours last season.)

http://www.statto.com/football/teams/huddersfield-town/2016-2017/results

http://www.statto.com/football/teams/burnley/2015-2016/results

http://www.statto.com/football/teams/brighton-and-hove-albion/2015-2016/table/2016-02-09

Newcastle best be worried then.

 

[CheeseRolls]

As I said, the statto table was incorrect, hence I posted the correct table.

I think it was [MENTION=118]Hiney[/MENTION] that posted this one on another thread;
http://www.11v11.com/league-tables/league-championship/13-february-2016/
http://www.11v11.com/league-tables/league-championship/13-february-2017/

More reliable than the statto version I think

 

[KingKev]

You're nervous because they'll always be a form team fairly close behind us, and will be that way until the end. If a few of the results you've predicted go wayward, like two less wins because we couldn't hold on and/or couldn't break through then we could potentially be usurped if someone behind us (looking like Hudds at the moment) go on a Burnley/Brighton like run from last season.

Hudds are in the strongest position at the moment and they have the form. They have also beaten us comfortably, though i'm not sure that's anything to worry about. I don't know about anyone else but as soon as I got to the ground and checked our lineup I expected nothing, having been optimistic about a point to start with.

Just had a look, and if all the contenders maintain their form so far since game 24 until the end, we would be relying on goal difference to hold off Hudds. That's why I'm nervous - and you can't say our games so far have been any harder than theirs...they've been nearly identical in terms of opponents

 

[KingKev]

I watch a lot of 1 day cricket and there is a golden rule that once the required rate goes above 12 per over (2 per ball) it is virtually impossible to win. This is not absolute, of course, and doesn't necessarily apply once you are down to the last couple of overs. But, statistically, it holds up well.

There is a case for arguing the equivalent in football is that teams who are more than 1 point behind per game remaining won't catch us. To reiterate, for those who skim read and jump to the wrong conclusion, this is not ABSOLUTE. But statistically it is very likely.
If applied, it suggests Derby and those below won't catch us. It suggests we are virtually guarantee a playoff place. The betting market and the 361 model support this.

PG

Sent from my SM-G900F using Tapatalk

With this far to go, my rule of thumb is that if you need more than 2.25 points per game to get to 92 then it's gonna be real tough. So that would almost count out everyone except us, Toon and Hudds. At the moment we can afford to lose 6 and still get to 92, Toon 7 and Hudds 4. So a Toon win at Hudds would be very handy....but things can change quickly....

 

[darkwolf666]

Just had a look, and if all the contenders maintain their form so far since game 24 until the end, we would be relying on goal difference to hold off Hudds. That's why I'm nervous - and you can't say our games so far have been any harder than theirs...they've been nearly identical in terms of opponents

That's a very time selective period, which just happens to include a drop in form for us.
How about picking a longer period, like say the last 30 games? Think you will find things look different the!

 

[sparkie]

Lucky Reading getting something when they go to Huddersfield on Tuesday 21st will possibly help.

 

[KingKev]

Correct table

View attachment 82137

So only Leeds of the top 6 have not averaged 2 points or more a game from the last 10 - and they got 19 points. Gotta be some kind of record?

 

[KingKev]

That's a very time selective period, which just happens to include a drop in form for us.
How about picking a longer period, like say the last 30 games? Think you will find things look different the!

It's a very logical period to select though don't you think? 2nd half of the season so far?
Why don't we pick the last 22; Hudds would be nowhere near us and everyone could sleep easy in the knowledge that next season the vast majority of us will be deciding not to go to Stoke for a Sunday afternoon game

 

[jimhigham]

So only Leeds of the top 6 have not averaged 2 points or more a game from the last 10 - and they got 19 points. Gotta be some kind of record?

This is really worrying me. Fate seems to be gearing up to have a rewrite of the record books for the least promoted promotable team ever. What is it gong to take for us to go up? 100 points?

 

[sparkie]

This is really worrying me. Fate seems to be gearing up to have a rewrite of the record books for the least promoted promotable team ever. What is it gong to take for us to go up? 100 points?

107 currently guarantees promotion. That is certain. It should be less, but anything beyond that is speculation and guesswork.

Target : 43 more points.

 

[DavePage]

107 guarantees Champions Actually

 

[KingKev]

107 guarantees Champions Actually

112?

 

[sparkie]

107 guarantees Champions Actually

Newcastle can get 110 even after we get 3 points off them.

 

[chaileyjem]

This is really worrying me. Fate seems to be gearing up to have a rewrite of the record books for the least promoted promotable team ever. What is it gong to take for us to go up? 100 points?

Given the top 6 all have to play nearly all of each other then these 100+ points totals are impossible for multiple teams.
Let alone the assumption that obviously nobody is going to go on a 16 match winning run. Are they ?
Not once in 20 years has a team with 90 or more not been in the top 2.

 

[Machiavelli]

Given the top 6 all have to play nearly all of each other then these 100+ points totals are impossible for multiple teams.
Let alone the assumption that obviously nobody is going to go on a 16 match winning run. Are they ?
Not once in 20 years has a team with 90 points not been in the top 2.

At least someone has an understanding of the history of this. I'd be amazed if more than two teams get 90 or more points. We managed 89 last season, but I'd sincerely doubt whether the third placed team manages that much, although they may well come very close.