This time last season

[Rugrat]

Looking through the run ins of the top four, you really have to fancy Huddersfield over Reading. Fixtures wise Huddersfield have a long run of winnable games where as Reading really will have to do it the hard way. It seems unlikely and they may even miss out on the play offs. If there is only one threat to auto promotion, we need to focus on Newcastle to make sure they are the ones that get caught and not us.

Hudders and our remaining fixtures are remarkabely similar bith in terms of the teams we have to play and the average position of all teams left to play (ours 'easier' at 13.7 vs their 12.9)

Said this before but looking deeper there are those games where you can't see beyond 3 points and those where you could see a case for zero, but what stands out for me are 4 'middling' aways that we each have to play, Barnsley, Forest, Wolves, QPR (us) and Brentford (them). I think these could well be key and if we can get a similar or better points tally from those we'll be fine

Can't figure Newcastle, they were no better than efficiant against Wolves or Derby but I get a sense that when Gayle returns they could steamroller their way through. But they have by far the trickiest fixtures of all and so I'm not writing them off for the play offs

 

[Machiavelli]

It is good to see the table laid out as it demonstrates a couple of things;

From here on in we turned a three point deficit on Hull into a 6 point surplus. That nine point shift is the warning, however despite an excellent run that doesn't start for a couple more games yet, we couldn't shift Burnley or Middlesbrough.

Taking the nine points as a working threshold, at this point we can right off Leeds as a threat, 10 points a game in hand plus superior GD, rules them out for now. Our visit to Elland Road should confirm this one way or another.

Looking through the run ins of the top four, you really have to fancy Huddersfield over Reading. Fixtures wise Huddersfield have a long run of winnable games where as Reading really will have to do it the hard way. It seems unlikely and they may even miss out on the play offs. If there is only one threat to auto promotion, we need to focus on Newcastle to make sure they are the ones that get caught and not us.

Outside the play-offs Norwich appear the emerging threat and the team to avoid. Our April fixture there looks trickier than the trip to Villa right now.

Thanks for your contributions to this thread. One person, at least, is reading it, and I'm pretty much with your assessment.

 

[GoldWithFalmer]

Huddersfield's Fa Cup exploits could be a factor in the unlikely,yet at the same time, possible event that they knock City out.

 

[Bigtomfu]

Huddersfield's Fa Cup exploits could be a factor in the unlikely,yet at the same time, possible event that they knock City out.

This. Plus think they have the poorer/shallower squad and may suffer a stutter.

 

[GoldWithFalmer]

This. Plus think they have the poorer/shallower squad and may suffer a stutter.

Let us cheer them on in the cup..

 

[CheeseRolls]

Hudders and our remaining fixtures are remarkabely similar bith in terms of the teams we have to play and the average position of all teams left to play (ours 'easier' at 13.7 vs their 12.9)

Said this before but looking deeper there are those games where you can't see beyond 3 points and those where you could see a case for zero, but what stands out for me are 4 'middling' aways that we each have to play, Barnsley, Forest, Wolves, QPR (us) and Brentford (them). I think these could well be key and if we can get a similar or better points tally from those we'll be fine

Can't figure Newcastle, they were no better than efficiant against Wolves or Derby but I get a sense that when Gayle returns they could steamroller their way through. But they have by far the trickiest fixtures of all and so I'm not writing them off for the play offs

Interesting - One of the points I keep coming back to on this thread, is trying to eliminate bias. it just shows how difficult it can be, having looked through the fixtures, I just felt that our games were tougher than Huddersfield's. Your numbers tell a different story.

This one taken from https://www.whoscored.com/Regions/252/Tournaments/7/England-Championship suggests our home form should be good enough to see us through.

 

[sir albion]

This. Plus think they have the poorer/shallower squad and may suffer a stutter.

Think they have a good squad and let's be honest we've had a poor poor bench numerous times this season and we don't have a centre back as back up available.

 

[saafend_seagull]

Huddersfield's Fa Cup exploits could be a factor in the unlikely,yet at the same time, possible event that they knock City out.

Best result would be a draw so they pick up an extra game.

 

[Bigtomfu]

Think they have a good squad and let's be honest we've had a poor poor bench numerous times this season and we don't have a centre back as back up available.

At times but look at the 7 we had yesterday. It even room for Skalak. I don't see that sort of strength from them...

 

[GoldWithFalmer]

Best result would be a draw so they pick up an extra game.

deffo-they might suffer (although not ultimately) like Hull did last season,with fading towards the end,every little helps in our quest,though at the end of the day it remains very much in our own hands and we currently have as good,if not best,chance we ever have of obtaining our goal of top flight footie for next season..

 

[Peter Grummit]

Jonathan Hogg, their influential holding midfielder, picked up a groin injury and was subbed after 20 minutes yesterday. He will be tough to replace.

Sent from my SM-G900F using Tapatalk

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Jonathan Hogg, their influential holding midfielder, picked up a groin injury and was subbed after 20 minutes yesterday. He will be tough to replace.

Sent from my SM-G900F using Tapatalk

They seemed to do ok without him... we need Mooy to pick up an injury

 

[saafend_seagull]

Jonathan Hogg, their influential holding midfielder, picked up a groin injury and was subbed after 20 minutes yesterday. He will be tough to replace.

Sent from my SM-G900F using Tapatalk

Nowhere near as influential as brown, kachunga, or mooy. Those 3 are quality players and match anything we have.

 

[Hugo Rune]

Having looked at 'Udders fixtures, I only counted 4(four) 3 point bankers (including this Tuesday) where as we have 7 (seven). They have a lot of tricky fixtures ahead. They beat QPR with a lot of luck - I'm not sure how long they can keep up their impressive points scoring.

 

[KingKev]

At half-way I said 12 wins and don't lose more than 6, that should see us home on 94 points. Brentford was a draw where I had us ' needing' to win and Preston I had us down for a point; on the other hand I had us losing at Fulham and drawing with Massive, so despite the feeling that we've wobbled so far in 2017 I still have us as being 2 points ahead of the target at this stage.
Ipswich is a must-win in my model and I have Barnsley and Reading down as draws; so any more than 5 points from the next 3 would be a bonus and an extra margin of safety vs my target, regardless of what others do.
On a direct comparison of fixtures played this term so far vs last we are 3 points to the good, which is encouraging. A win on Tuesday (and I am expecting it to be tough work and no shoo-in) would widen the gap to 6....so theoretically still on course for mid-90's...so why am I so nervous?

 

[SeagullDubai]

Mm


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Nixonator]

At half-way I said 12 wins and don't lose more than 6, that should see us home on 94 points. Brentford was a draw where I had us ' needing' to win and Preston I had us down for a point; on the other hand I had us losing at Fulham and drawing with Massive, so despite the feeling that we've wobbled so far in 2017 I still have us as being 2 points ahead of the target at this stage.
Ipswich is a must-win in my model and I have Barnsley and Reading down as draws; so any more than 5 points from the next 3 would be a bonus and an extra margin of safety vs my target, regardless of what others do.
On a direct comparison of fixtures played this term so far vs last we are 3 points to the good, which is encouraging. A win on Tuesday (and I am expecting it to be tough work and no shoo-in) would widen the gap to 6....so theoretically still on course for mid-90's...so why am I so nervous?

You're nervous because they'll always be a form team fairly close behind us, and will be that way until the end. If a few of the results you've predicted go wayward, like two less wins because we couldn't hold on and/or couldn't break through then we could potentially be usurped if someone behind us (looking like Hudds at the moment) go on a Burnley/Brighton like run from last season.

Hudds are in the strongest position at the moment and they have the form. They have also beaten us comfortably, though i'm not sure that's anything to worry about. I don't know about anyone else but as soon as I got to the ground and checked our lineup I expected nothing, having been optimistic about a point to start with.

 

[Sussex Nomad]

Interesting to see we are only a few points from this time last season, game more played yes, but we steamrollered the next few, and to see Reading, Leeds and Huddersfield together at the wrong end of the table.

13-02-2016



13-02-2017

Correct table below.

Edit: Just realised the statto.com 13-02-2017 table is wrong!

 

[Sussex Nomad]

Correct table

 

[Sussex Nomad]

I tried to delete the incorrect table, it just comes back. Weird software.