[Politics] The NSC 'up all night' election night *** OFFICIAL MATCH THREAD ***

[Driver8]

My £10 bet on 225-249 seat losses for the tories is looking a bit shaky with 5 seats left to go (currently on 249)!

 

[Si Gull]

Bugger dozzed off and miss that Mog **** losing his seat. Will watch it back on repeat.

I am so happy that the candidate in my new constituency Earley and Woodly is Labour. Yuan Yang will make a great MP a really smart lady. My MP has gone from John Dedwood to her, the upgrade is unbelievable.

Truss is gone

Great news for Earley and Woodley, also for Wokingham where we finally saw the back of the Tories after 74 years, and 37 years of Redwood - it's the first time in my 40+ years of voting where it felt like my general election vote mattered!

 

[Sid and the Sharknados]

Labour take Darlington. Reform votes made the difference.

Just goes to show that bubbles and so on aren't confined to the Internet.

I spend my time in Darlington in a few nice little pubs talking to nice open minded people who like nice beer and chatting to people.

Christ knows where all those Conservative and Reform voters are spending their time, but I'm pretty sure it's not as enjoyable.

 

[Weststander]

From a couple of years back.

 

[deletebeepbeepbeep]

Thoughts?

Just confirmation that you can't post something into being true no matter how much you post it over and over again.

 

[goldstone]

Awoke to find out our new MP in Mid Sussex is a bloody Liberal Democrat. How embarrassing. I'm not sure there ever has been a more pointless party.

 

[ROSM]

Not yet but for reasons I gave earlier

- labour putting resources into winning seats rather than stacking votes up where Not needed

- 7 parties getting over 2 % of the vote (5 on projection getting more than 10 seats)

- reform fighting 611 seats rather than brexit in 300 last tine

- Palestine impacting Muslim vote

I expect labour to get 38%, tories 23, reform 15, lib dem 10%, green 6, snp 3%, Plaid 2% rest 3%

So I put this up last night and also suggested it may be just less than the 59% turnout from 2001

Well on the latter it seems ro be settling at 60% so just under the 2005 turnout

As for the vote share.

I overestimated labour (didn't account enough for tactical voting which helped lib dems no end and maybe greens in hereford)

Tories and reform almost spot on

Lib dem I underplayed by the same amount I overplayed labour (hence my tactical vote statement)

Green was 6.7% son rounded up rather than down

Plaid was also a rounding error out but I overplayed snp.

Rest spot on

 

[Silverhatch]

Just woken from my Covid sweats (still out there). Still going to have a glass of good bubbly. Thank-the-f*** that this awful Conservative Party are hopefully cast into opposition for many many years. So pleased that ReesMogg, Truss and other enablers of this shitshow are blown into the weeds.

 

[Ethelwulf]

How's that going for you?

Might start snowing as well soon

 

[Ethelwulf]

Steve Baker is taking it well on itv. Ed Balls fault he lost apparently

Baker is a c u n t

 

[CheeseRolls]

Do we know how many of our politically seats were down to the tactically voting? We were fortunate not to have to vote tactically. I am a little concerned that we may have too many lib dems that perhaps are only there because they are not Tories. How is this going to effect parliament?

Was having a look through the Sussex stats and drew two conclusions.

1 The RefUK vote was broadly aligned to the national stats (a couple below a couple above) which was surprising to me at least.

2 Tactical voting looks to be less of a thing in more rural areas, with no clear second place being a pattern across the larger mid Sussex constituencies.

 

[keaton]

Awoke to find out our new MP in Mid Sussex is a bloody Liberal Democrat. How embarrassing. I'm not sure there ever has been a more pointless party.

Not sure about that. Apparently one party was in power for 14 years and couldn't achieve any of their goals due to the socialist woke brigade

 

[Weststander]

The exit poll - yes.

But the pre-vote polls over-estimated labour and under-estimated conservatives.

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A forecast 39% against an actual 33.6% despite modern scientific poling, that’s a huge gap. Quietly, the companies will closely examine why that went awry. They said that after one of the 2010’s elections didn’t follow exit poling.

 

[Berty23]

The exit poll - yes.

But the pre-vote polls over-estimated labour and under-estimated conservatives.

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Didn’t the polls shift in last couple of days? The super majority point took off so people felt could vote for others seemed to be the tone.

 

[Durlston]

Okay, goodnight

Good morning, sweetheart.

Did Santa bring you everything you wanted?

Ready for the two Euro crackers later on with Germany v Spain and France v Portugal? May need a liddle sleepy weepy this afternoon to pick you up?

 

[Berty23]

The final Mori one.



Margin of error would include the results right? Plus they say a proportion who have said might change.

 

[Hugo Rune]

Awoke to find out our new MP in Mid Sussex is a bloody Liberal Democrat. How embarrassing. I'm not sure there ever has been a more pointless party.

Brilliant news! The best thing politically that has ever happened to Mid Sussex! You’ll get a better constituency MP than you have had in decades. Congrats!

 

[Berty23]

You gov also had it right with seat numbers. But the overall proportion is less relevant because if our system. The seat guesses all right.

 

[Audax]

Didn’t the polls shift in last couple of days? The super majority point took off so people felt could vote for others seemed to be the tone.

Indeed, there were signs of a late closing of the gap in the final day polls. But I also think it's the age-old story with polls: they underestimate right-wing support (historically the "shy tories", but this time I think it's the "shy right wingers"). But also, I think, a little element of underestimating a bit the impact that Gaza would have in those seats with a strong Muslim vote. Lab shed a few seats to pro-Gaza independents, including possibly the real shock of the night in Ashworth being soundly beaten.

Edit to add: also keep in mind the error margins. I think the final result is, just barely, within the error margins.

 

[Mo Gosfield]

It depends what you think democracy is.

Populists will always get high percentages of the vote during challenging times.
The Lib Dems will have a slew of high quality MP candidates, with a history of working in local government.
Reform won't.

If we apply PR to last night's results, Reform get 90 odd seats.
I suspect the 30th - 90th strongest Reform candidate, may not be the strongest political operator and might not actually give much of a f*** about 90% of their job as an MP.

I don't know the background of most of the Liberal and Reform candidates, so I am not prepared to make judgement calls like that.