The Coronavirus plan, Stan

[Weststander]

Amazing how many people can misinterpret that paper and/or make it political.

If you actually read it through, it suggests that any earlier action would have made very little difference (unless we completely locked down our borders in early January).

EVERYONE is on the same path, at different stages with the same suppression and mitigation measures applied in variation - with China being the most extreme, measures that will unlikely be replicated in the western world.

When China attempts to restart (slowly), they could easily have a rebound and immediately have to adopt the same measures.

We are employing delay tactics here, R&D is paramount and will be the only long-term solution.

This.

The usual suspects looking to petty party politicise any COVID-19 thread.

 

[Soylent Blue]

Copied from utube comments....
"My daughter went to a Costco Store in Springville Ut today. She said there was a line clear around the store but it was extremely organized. There was a mandatory six ft spacing between customers and they only allowed 50 customers in the store at any one time. She said it moved very fast as the customers moved quickly getting what they wanted and out the door. She said it moved as fast as a regular shopping day if not faster and she felt very safe throughout the whole process."


Blood types may matter
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soc...ay-be-more-vulnerable-coronavirus-china-study

Seems about 10% to 25% more risk if blood type A, similar reductions if blood type O.

 

[Wozza]

I was about to make a post related to this...

My 9-y-o's birthday is at the end of April, so I'm going to look to get stuff for him very quickly just in case all non-food shops shut and/or online deliveries stop.

I might look to try and cover off Christmas too.

Some people would call it doom-mongering but I'd advise everyone to really, really think how an extended lockdown might affect your personal life and the stuff you need.

I've just ordered an extra office chair...

 

[Jolly Red Giant]

From this you can see why school closures have not been implemented yet, but at the point the orange line keeps climbing towards NHS capacity, closing schools will then curb transmission and keep demands on the NHS below breaking point.

It is an utter mistake not to implement school closures in Britain - young people are carriers and when hundreds of them spend the day in close proximity, sharing desks, moving from room to room, eating together etc - they will spread the virus that will then be spread to family members. On top of that the Tories are talking about changing the pupil/teacher so they can pack even more kids into classrooms as teachers get sick.

It is also necessary not just to paste in the graph - you should have pasted the conclusion in the report relating to school closures -

We predict that school and university closure will have an impact on the epidemic, under the assumption that children do transmit as much as adults, even if they rarely experience severe disease. We find that school and university closure is a more effective strategy to support epidemic suppression than mitigation; when combined with population-wide social distancing, the effect of school closure is to further amplify the breaking of social contacts between households, and thus suppress transmission. However, school closure is predicted to be insufficient to mitigate (never mind suppress) an epidemic in isolation; this contrasts with the situation in seasonal influenza epidemics, where children are the key drivers of transmission due to adults having higher immunity levels

It must also be remembered that Covid 19 is not a flu virus - it comes from the same family as the common cold - and this impacts on the nature of transmission and infection.

Why don't they leave it to parental choice whether children go to school or not?

The common good should over-ride parental choice in this situation.

It'll all be over by Christmas.

No guarantee of that - the 1918 pandemic lasted 3 years and came in three distinct waves - and the first wave was not the most serious.

I have family working at Worthing Hospital. If under 60 with no serious underlying health condition, they are not in grave danger.

Not true - those under 60 are far less likely to be seriously impacted - but people under 60 will die, irrespective of whether they have underlying health conditions or not, if the infection continues to spread.

We all likely get the virus anyway.

Not necessarily true - a vaccine might be developed (I think unlikely) - but at a certain point when a significant percentage of the population have immunity as a result of contracting the virus it can die out (the same principle applies to all vaccine programmes - you aim to vaccinate a critical mass, not to vaccinate everybody). But even if everyone were to get it - it is crucially important that the rate of infection is slowed dramatically - this can save lives. If the NHS gets overwhelmed, which is almost a guarantee, then the hospitals won't even put over 65s on ventilators - doctors will have to decide who lives and who dies.

The overriding point is to ultimately minimise the spread to those who are vulnerable.

The best way of minimising the spread of the virus to the most vulnerable is to minimise the spread of the virus - and the best way of doing that is through social distancing (including the shutting of schools).

No one is suggesting that under-60’s health professionals are in danger, even Len McCkuskey at the weekend was promoting an expansion of the numbers working in the NHS, by nationalising Nuffield and BUPA hospitals.

All health professionals are in danger - health professionals are always dis-proportionally hit during pandemics/epidemics, in terms of both infection, the seriousness of the infection and the number of deaths. On top of that - this pandemic will see large numbers of health professionals suffering from mental health issues, including PTSD - they will be making life and death decisions and it will have a serious impact on the health service in the long term when it comes to health professionals being able to cope with the mental stress and strain of working in the current environment.

And McCluskey is right - private health care should be nationalised - it may expand the NHS numbers but it doesn't actually change the number of health workers in the country - that stays the same. The advantage of nationalising private hospitals is that it allows for proper planning of the response to the crisis and that is vital at this time. Instead the Tories are pumping £2.4million per day into private-for-profit healthcare - as always protecting the interests of the conglomerates rather than ordinary people. Furthermore - the Tories now want to buy ventilators - at a huge mark-up - except you can put people on a ventilator if you do not have properly trained staff to monitor patients - and thanks to 3 decades of Tory and Blairite cuts, ventilators and the trained staff to run them are few and far between.

 

[Jolly Red Giant]

If you actually read it through, it suggests that any earlier action would have made very little difference (unless we completely locked down our borders in early January).

No it does not

EVERYONE is on the same path, at different stages with the same suppression and mitigation measures applied in variation - with China being the most extreme, measures that will unlikely be replicated in the western world.

The measures currently being implemented in Italy and Spain are very similar to the measures implemented in China

When China attempts to restart (slowly), they could easily have a rebound and immediately have to adopt the same measures.

That is a possibility - and should not be drive by 'market' demands

We are employing delay tactics here, R&D is paramount and will be the only long-term solution.

No - Britain is a basket case in terms of dealing with this crisis - even the WHO is calling out the nonsense from Blundering Boris. Britain is probably a week away from the NHS being on the verge of collapse - even Johnson admits to there being 10,000 cases already in Britain. However, the decision not to test means that contact tracing is going to be non-existent and this will lead to a major spike in infections in Britain. A lot of people will die that will not have needed to - and many because of the policies being adopted by the Tories. Hell - the DWP has even said that it won't stop sanctions against welfare claimants - and statutory sick pay is very low in the UK.

 

[Bold Seagull]

It is an utter mistake not to implement school closures in Britain - young people are carriers and when hundreds of them spend the day in close proximity, sharing desks, moving from room to room, eating together etc.

It must also be remembered that Covid 19 is not a flu virus - it comes from the same family as the common cold - and this impacts on the nature of transmission and infection.

No guarantee of that - the 1918 pandemic lasted 3 years and came in three distinct waves - and the first wave was not the most serious.

So if like 1918, this pandemic could well last well over a year as many experts predict, possibly longer, what exactly is your long term strategy? After you've shut schools say today, then what? How long for? Army on the streets? Civil unrest? I suspect our schools will shut, but at the time our medical and scientific experts think is the optimum moment.

You have a lot of arguments AGAINST what the UK is doing, but not a lot of arguments FOR what they should be doing. I'm sorry, but it's just not good enough to say 'what other countries are doing' - other countries with different population demographics, different geographics, climate, healthcare. There is no universal action, each country has been different in timing and detail to what they are doing. And frankly, the results around the world is an incredibly mixed picture, because it is well beyond just what governments chose or don't chose to do.

Macron is currently imploring the French for compliance, whereas here, the UK government is hoping the the UK population comply under their own volition, that more can be done and achieved from an obedient motivated population, than can be from one in defiance and needing oppressive measures.

Time will tell, I'm not going to say we have it right or wrong, but I'm not looking at any countries around the world thinking they have it right. There are many factors why different countries have different rates out of control of what their governments are doing.

 

[beorhthelm]

And McCluskey is right - private health care should be nationalised - it may expand the NHS numbers but it doesn't actually change the number of health workers in the country - that stays the same. The advantage of nationalising private hospitals is that it allows for proper planning of the response to the crisis and that is vital at this time. Instead the Tories are pumping £2.4million per day into private-for-profit healthcare - as always protecting the interests of the conglomerates rather than ordinary people. Furthermore - the Tories now want to buy ventilators - at a huge mark-up - except you can put people on a ventilator if you do not have properly trained staff to monitor patients - and thanks to 3 decades of Tory and Blairite cuts, ventilators and the trained staff to run them are few and far between.

dont let a crisis go to waste eh? interesting the cost of private health care bed is about a third less than the NHS reference cost. how do they do that?

 

[The Camel]

I agree, my gut instinct has been saying pull the kids out tomorrow, no one but no one will tell me what we should do with our children, the gut instinct of a parent is far stronger and it needs to be done on a case by case scenario.


The world will change, I will be trying to map out the future before we get there.

I wanted my boy to be out from Monday, my missus stood firmly against - believing we need to do as we're told at times of crisis (understandable position)

But she's changed her mind today and he'll be kept out from tomorrow.

 

[Bold Seagull]

I wanted my boy to be out from Monday, my missus stood firmly against - believing we need to do as we're told at times of crisis (understandable position)

But she's changed her mind today and he'll be kept out from tomorrow.

Every parent has to make a choice, but I would just say unless you are planning your own imposed self isolation and extra distancing, then the risk of infection is still going to be there, all be it slightly less.

I've got a friend who works from home, his partner does as well, so they've taken the kids out because they can enact their own social distancing and isolation as a family, with no close relatives to visit etc. can actually reduce their contacts down to a bare minimum.

Unless you're planning that, and the kids are off but parents are still going about their daily lives, not sure it's going to help really, just kids going bat-shit mental bored at home after a few days.

 

[cjd]

It is an utter mistake not to implement school closures in Britain - young people are carriers and when hundreds of them spend the day in close proximity, sharing desks, moving from room to room, eating together etc - they will spread the virus that will then be spread to family members. On top of that the Tories are talking about changing the pupil/teacher so they can pack even more kids into classrooms as teachers get sick.

It is also necessary not just to paste in the graph - you should have pasted the conclusion in the report relating to school closures -


It must also be remembered that Covid 19 is not a flu virus - it comes from the same family as the common cold - and this impacts on the nature of transmission and infection.


The common good should over-ride parental choice in this situation.


No guarantee of that - the 1918 pandemic lasted 3 years and came in three distinct waves - and the first wave was not the most serious.


Not true - those under 60 are far less likely to be seriously impacted - but people under 60 will die, irrespective of whether they have underlying health conditions or not, if the infection continues to spread.


Not necessarily true - a vaccine might be developed (I think unlikely) - but at a certain point when a significant percentage of the population have immunity as a result of contracting the virus it can die out (the same principle applies to all vaccine programmes - you aim to vaccinate a critical mass, not to vaccinate everybody). But even if everyone were to get it - it is crucially important that the rate of infection is slowed dramatically - this can save lives. If the NHS gets overwhelmed, which is almost a guarantee, then the hospitals won't even put over 65s on ventilators - doctors will have to decide who lives and who dies.


The best way of minimising the spread of the virus to the most vulnerable is to minimise the spread of the virus - and the best way of doing that is through social distancing (including the shutting of schools).


All health professionals are in danger - health professionals are always dis-proportionally hit during pandemics/epidemics, in terms of both infection, the seriousness of the infection and the number of deaths. On top of that - this pandemic will see large numbers of health professionals suffering from mental health issues, including PTSD - they will be making life and death decisions and it will have a serious impact on the health service in the long term when it comes to health professionals being able to cope with the mental stress and strain of working in the current environment.

And McCluskey is right - private health care should be nationalised - it may expand the NHS numbers but it doesn't actually change the number of health workers in the country - that stays the same. The advantage of nationalising private hospitals is that it allows for proper planning of the response to the crisis and that is vital at this time. Instead the Tories are pumping £2.4million per day into private-for-profit healthcare - as always protecting the interests of the conglomerates rather than ordinary people. Furthermore - the Tories now want to buy ventilators - at a huge mark-up - except you can put people on a ventilator if you do not have properly trained staff to monitor patients - and thanks to 3 decades of Tory and Blairite cuts, ventilators and the trained staff to run them are few and far between.

I thank you for your rebuttal of many of Westander,s statements. His reply to my earlier posting was insensitive and inaccurate. I didn't bother replying to him myself as quite frankly his opinions are simply not worth much.

 

[jackanada]

dont let a crisis go to waste eh? interesting the cost of private health care bed is about a third less than the NHS reference cost. how do they do that?

Because most private beds are for people having minor elective procedures. NHS beds are only for people who are really sick. The figure further pulled up by ITU / CCU beds

 

[The Camel]

Every parent has to make a choice, but I would just say unless you are planning your own imposed self isolation and extra distancing, then the risk of infection is still going to be there, all be it slightly less.

I've got a friend who works from home, his partner does as well, so they've taken the kids out because they can enact their own social distancing and isolation as a family, with no close relatives to visit etc. can actually reduce their contacts down to a bare minimum.

Unless you're planning that, and the kids are off but parents are still going about their daily lives, not sure it's going to help really, just kids going bat-shit mental bored at home after a few days.

We live on a farm and I work from home.

Probably best set up to be isolated of anyone I know.

 

[Jolly Red Giant]

So if like 1918, this pandemic could well last well over a year as many experts predict, possibly longer, what exactly is your long term strategy?

The Spanish flu pandemic broke out in January 1918 during WW1 - the British, French, German and US governments suppressed all reporting of the pandemic. This facilitated the spread of the virus around the globe. The second wave, a mutated strain of H1N1, hit in October, - prompted mainly because of the conditions in the trenches - those with a severe reaction were sent on crowded trains into crowded hospitals where they spread infection. Those who had survived the first wave were immune - but the second wave killed a large number of young people who lacked immunity. On top of that, large numbers died from aspirin poisoning after the US Surgeon General recommended large doses of aspirin as treatment. The 1918 pandemic killed between 50million and 100million people - largely because of the antics of the warring powers in suppressing information - coupled with the extremely poor living conditions at the time.

I have already outlined the long-term strategy - test, test, test and contact tracing - isolate those infected, treating those serious ill. Implement widespread social distancing, including shutting schools. Extend and flat line the rate of infection to help the health service to cope - and over a prolonged period those with immunity will reach a critical mass in society (either through infection or vaccination or a combination of both).

After you've shut schools say today, then what? How long for?

Ireland shut its schools last Thursday - it was 4 weeks too late - we are now expecting infections in Ireland to go from 250 cases to 15,000 cases in the next ten days. Every day that Johnson refuses to instruct the schools to close will increase the spike the UK will be hit with and increase the number of deaths (possibly double the number of deaths). The NHS will not be able to cope and over 65s will not be treated.

How long is a good question - I would shut the schools until September. I am a school teacher and I am currently assigning work and conducting classes online and I will continue to do so for as long as the schools are closed. Care needs to be taken when re-opening the schools and I would stagger the opening, bringing in exam classes first and staggering other classes at two week intervals. Education is important - but keeping people alive is more important - if it takes more time for students to complete their education then that is a very small price to pay for keeping people alive.

Army on the streets? Civil unrest?

Civil rest is a distinct possibility - indeed this pandemic could lead to revolutionary upheavals - and any civil unrest in Britain will be directly the result of Johnson's policies of protecting big business rather than protecting the mass of the population. The reason why he is telling people not to go to pubs and restaurants but refusing to instruct them to close is to protect the insurance industry, while letting small businesses go to the wall.

I suspect our schools will shut, but at the time our medical and scientific experts think is the optimum moment.

Ireland are shut for two weeks - but it will get extended until after Easter and then possibly up to the summer. The optimum time to shut the schools was four weeks ago - and every week of a delay will contribute to the crisis in the UK. Johnson is not operating based on medical advice - he is operating in the interests of big business. School principals and teachers know how daft the approach of the Tories is and parents are acutely aware of the dangers of keeping schools open and large numbers are already keeping their kids at home. Health professionals are constantly criticising Johnson and the Tories - my daughter who is a ICU doctor in London and sees the impact of the Tory's approach, has called Johnson a '*tw*t' and everyone she works with is of a similar view.

You have a lot of arguments AGAINST what the UK is doing, but not a lot of arguments FOR what they should be doing. I'm sorry, but it's just not good enough to say 'what other countries are doing' - other countries with different population demographics, different geographics, climate, healthcare. There is no universal action, each country has been different in timing and detail to what they are doing. And frankly, the results around the world is an incredibly mixed picture, because it is well beyond just what governments chose or don't chose to do.

I have criticised the Tories for what they are and are not doing - I also criticise the approach of the government in Ireland, their delay will ultimately cost hundreds, if not thousands of lives. This virus doesn't recognise borders and the failure of one country to act in an even minimal way threatens everyone on the planet.

There is zero evidence that geography or climate has any impact on the spread of the virus - healthcare systems most certainly do - but as we have seen in Italy, even a highly developed healthcare system can be completely overwhelmed by the scale of the crisis.

But you are absolutely wrong to say there is 'no universal action' - the WHO has said - test, test, test, contact trace and quarantine and isolate - countries that have implement these and other measure early, like South Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan have, so far, been the most effective at slowing the rate of infection and minimising the number of deaths. The advantage of the timing of the spread of the virus is that countries had an opportunity to act to slow the spread - most didn't, including Ireland, and the UK still hasn't implemented the necessary measures.

Now many more measures should be implemented - like nationalising private hospitals - nationalising all trains and buses and implementing free public transport with proper sanitising and social distancing - only allowing contactless payments, with increased limits, and telling the banks they cannot impose charges and that they have to indemnify people against possible fraud - suspending all mortgage and rent payments - a ban on evictions - guaranteeing the wages of all workers forced out of work etc. etc

There is a factory in Surrey that has enough source materials on site to make 3.5million test kits - yet no order from the NHS - that is the scale of the irresponsibility of the Tory government.

This pandemic will have an enormous impact globally - and when it broke out in China months ago I was warning people about the potential impact - many people will die - but to do pretty much nothing, which Johnson is doing with his 'herd immunity' is utterly callous and irresponsible. And from an Irish perspective it is also impacting here. We are the only people with a land border with the UK - and there are many workers and students who live on one side of the border between North and South and work or go to school on the other side. Johnson's irresponsible policies are impacting on the spread of the virus in Ireland and the ability of the measures introduced in Ireland to mitigate the rate of increase.

Macron is currently imploring the French for compliance, whereas here, the UK government is hoping the the UK population comply under their own volition, that more can be done and achieved from an obedient motivated population, than can be from one in defiance and needing oppressive measures.

This is nonsense - a small number of irresponsible people can have a massive impact on the ability of the mass of the population to survive this crisis. Employers refusing to pay workers who are off, forcing them to go to work when they should be self-quarantining or self-isolating - Richard Branson telling Virgin workers to take 8 weeks unpaid leave when he could pay every worker for the 8 weeks and only see a drop of 0.002% in his wealth - landlords telling tenants that they have to pay rent for April upfront now or face the prospect of eviction etc - and then idiots who think that they can go to the pub with impunity, irrespective of the consequences for others. In the current circumstances - the common good trumps your nonsense about an 'obedient, motivated population'. The reality is that working class people are motivated - motivated to stop the spread of the virus by implementing social distancing (including keeping their kids out of school), motivated by setting up community support groups to help those who are self-isolating, support groups for hospital and care staff who are at the coal face, support groups for workers being forced out of work with no pay etc etc

Time will tell, I'm not going to say we have it right or wrong, but I'm not looking at any countries around the world thinking they have it right. There are many factors why different countries have different rates out of control of what their governments are doing.

I guarantee you that the UK government has got it wrong - and the evidence is already there - that is not to say that other governments have got it right - they haven't - they waited weeks too long before implementing measures and they still are not doing what is needed to plan a course through this crisis that minimises the number of people that will die - but what Johnson and the Tories are doing is a scandal and unfortunately many people will die unnecessarily as a result.

 

[Jolly Red Giant]

Every parent has to make a choice, but I would just say unless you are planning your own imposed self isolation and extra distancing, then the risk of infection is still going to be there, all be it slightly less.

children and teenagers are carriers - and the main place they pick up the virus is in school - they then transmit it to grandparents and other elderly relatives, either directly or through others. The risk of spreading the infection is significantly reduced if you are not in an environment where it is spread. Alone it will not prevent anything - but as part of a comprehensive programme of social distancing coupled with testing and contact tracing, it can have a significant impact both on a personal and a societal level.

I've got a friend who works from home, his partner does as well, so they've taken the kids out because they can enact their own social distancing and isolation as a family, with no close relatives to visit etc. can actually reduce their contacts down to a bare minimum.

Unless you're planning that, and the kids are off but parents are still going about their daily lives, not sure it's going to help really, just kids going bat-shit mental bored at home after a few days.

Parents who need to care for children because they are out of school should be given flexible hours and time off work on full pay to make sure that social distancing is effectively implemented. This is the reason why Johnson won't shut the schools - he doesn't want to implement payment measures to make sure that workers don't suffer financially because the 'markets' won't like it.

 

[Jolly Red Giant]

Because most private beds are for people having minor elective procedures. NHS beds are only for people who are really sick. The figure further pulled up by ITU / CCU beds

Elective procedures are highly profitable - keeping people alive costs money - and when there is a complication in a private hospital they immediately send the patient into the public system for care.

and by the way - private care is also given and charged for in NHS hospitals and the NHS gets paid very little for it.

 

[Wozza]

Richard Branson telling Virgin workers to take 8 weeks unpaid leave when he could pay every worker for the 8 weeks and only see a drop of 0.002% in his wealth

Lots of sense in your post but, come on, Richard Branson's company owns just 20% of Virgin Atlantic. (Not denying he's a f**kwit)

 

[Jolly Red Giant]

Lots of sense in your post but, come on, Richard Branson's company owns just 20% of Virgin Atlantic. (Not denying he's a f**kwit)

Didn't stop him saying that workers should take 8 weeks unpaid leave - all well and good for someone worth more than £4billion.

 

[marcos3263]

I was surprised how busy the roads were on the way to work and how busy Steyning is. The high street is rammed, co-op and cafes etc all full.

I thought as the population up here has an average age of 92, there would be a lot of self isolating but no, lots of oldies shuffling around and opening their car doors into others in the car park or still parking selfishly on the yellow lines and going about their business.

I guess their attitude is that they have lived through 3 wars dating back to Napoleon and a silly bug isn't going to hurt them.

there was even a queue this morning at the funeral directors....

 

[Bob'n'weave]

I know [MENTION=16159]Bold Seagull[/MENTION] has been following the nudge theory/behavioural science stuff quite closely - it's likely that this approach is being taken, putting it simply, because broadly people react better to this than everything being forcibly closed.

With this approach, different places may shutter up at different times, making it a more gradual process.

The economic situation is clearly key, so I was heartened that the lead story on the Radio 2 news at 8am was about economic measures to help businesses, and it's also the lead story on the BBC website.

Be nice if the media focused on this a bit instead of the armageddon narrative. Worrying about the virus is one thing, worrying about whether you will slide into abject financial ruin is not helping. One of the first things Macron did when addressing the nation was pledge a huge pot of money to ease the pain to businesses. Boris should do the same.

 

[Jolly Red Giant]

Be nice if the media focused on this a bit instead of the armageddon narrative. Worrying about the virus is one thing, worrying about whether you will slide into abject financial ruin is not helping. One of the first things Macron did when addressing the nation was pledge a huge pot of money to ease the pain to businesses. Boris should do the same.

Do you think it might be appropriate to help workers and their families and those on pensions and welfare as well