The Coronavirus plan, Stan

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

The black line is the "do nothing and let it rip" approach.

I find it absurd that the black line is considered an approach at all

 

[Bozza]

I find it absurd that the black line is considered an approach at all

Well it’s not as is clearly detailed in the report. It’s more there for comparison.

 

[CheeseRolls]

Talk of changing production lines to produce ventilators, still feels a little half arsed. In the last couple of months, I have been at hospital sites in Liverpool and Brighton, where hospital builds have been going on for two years, without any real signs of completion.

To manage this situation, we don't need general purpose hospitals, we need production lines of isolation, infection control and a limited range of treatments, which includes ventilators. If we can't match the Wuhan two week hospital build, surely we should be looking at military style pop up hospitals.

 

[atomised]

I wouldve thought the black line was there for balance rather than as a considered option. As with all scientific studies it's necessary to look at all options

 

[atomised]

Well it’s not as is clearly detailed in the report. It’s more there for comparison.

Beat me to it

 

[beorhthelm]

Interesting that only the UK is following this plan. I wonder why the rest of Europe and much of the world is so thick as shit to be doing things very differently. Don't they know that the **** Boris Johnson and Donald the Strumpet are the most intelligent in the world..?

rest of world isnt doing much differently, they close borders except for commuting, restrict bars to 1m spacing, then alter guidance a couple of days later. fact is no one really has a clue how to cope, and quite oddly there has been next to no coordination.

 

[heathgate]

Well thanks for that, I’m in the mood for driving to beachy head now, knowing this is probably going to take a year to run it’s course.
Very depressing reading, the most freighting thing was at the end..
“ no public health intervention with such disruptive effects on society has been previously attempted for such a long duration of time. How populations and societies will respond remains unclear”

I can see some social disorder, and more panic, oh Jebus.....
I feel so sad.

Social disorder is a given..... it will be a minor trigger, something like a supermarket in North or East London running out of some goods... rioting and looting ensues and spreads.... sad times.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

 

[Horses Arse]

read the graph. the model predicts all those countries doing something meaningful will get to do so all over again. incidently, most those meaningful things have only been for a week, sometime days.

Really? You sure? So suggestions have more merit than actual directions? Couldn't see that in the graph.

 

[A1X]

IMHO the real risk is not necessarily people dying from the virus itself (which will be relatively small in number, although obviously any death is awful for the people it affects). The real risk will be the impact to wider society of what could potentially be a major, major impact to the economy. We could see a LOT of people losing their jobs, with knock-on impacts to people being able to afford to pay mortgages, bills etc.

One thing which has been a disgrace is the Government refusing to actually close down things like pubs, restaurants and entertainment venues but to advise against going. This means en masse cancellations but no means for those places to claim back on insurance as often that only pays out if authorities shut them down (normally because there's a bomb threat or something).

 

[DavidinSouthampton]

Social disorder is a given..... it will be a minor trigger, something like a supermarket in North or East London running out of some goods... rioting and looting ensues and spreads.... sad times.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

In the Guardian there is a report of queues in the USA around gun shops, and sales of weapons and ammunition being up to 170% higher than normal!

At least you can't kill people with toilet roll.

 

[DavidinSouthampton]

IMHO the real risk is not necessarily people dying from the virus itself (which will be relatively small in number, although obviously any death is awful for the people it affects). The real risk will be the impact to wider society of what could potentially be a major, major impact to the economy. We could see a LOT of people losing their jobs, with knock-on impacts to people being able to afford to pay mortgages, bills etc.

One thing which has been a disgrace is the Government refusing to actually close down things like pubs, restaurants and entertainment venues but to advise against going. This means en masse cancellations but no means for those places to claim back on insurance as often that only pays out if authorities shut them down (normally because there's a bomb threat or something).

This is exactly it. Political decisions - or the lack of them - are making things far worse than they need to be. People fearing for their jobs and their businesses.

 

[Albion Dan]

Why would anyone trust a plan when the people producing the stats have already admitted they’ve got it really wrong once already?

 

[Dave the OAP]

Why don't they leave it to parental choice whether children go to school or not?

I completely understand the argument that some children of emergency workers need to be cared for. And schools should be kept open for this reason.

But when the parents are able to look after the kids why force them to school?

In effect they are.

At my wife’s school, parents of children who have medical issues, or siblings with medical issues etc are all keeping their kids off. Some classes are 40% down at the moment.

BUT. as the class numbers shrink at the moment it is required that classes be merged and teachers cover larger classes.

There are 3 weeks until the Easter break, so I don’t understand why they have not taken the opportunity to take extra two weeks before , ie pack in this week, and two weeks after the break, which is an effective break of 6 weeks. I understand private/ public schools have done just this...Christ’s hospital in Horsham certainly have apart from year 11 and 13 for exam work.

I get the impression the whole policy making is being driven by “ the British public are so thick they will get bored and flout the isolation rules as soon as they can”. And that is why they are trying so hard to bring in measures gradually rather than the French and Spanish BIG BANG theory.

 

[Stockholm Syndrome]

Interesting that only the UK is following this plan. I wonder why the rest of Europe and much of the world is so thick as shit to be doing things very differently. Don't they know that the **** Boris Johnson and Donald the Strumpet are the most intelligent in the world..?

No, Sweden are following the same plan as Britain

 

[Bozza]

IMHO the real risk is not necessarily people dying from the virus itself (which will be relatively small in number, although obviously any death is awful for the people it affects). The real risk will be the impact to wider society of what could potentially be a major, major impact to the economy. We could see a LOT of people losing their jobs, with knock-on impacts to people being able to afford to pay mortgages, bills etc.

One thing which has been a disgrace is the Government refusing to actually close down things like pubs, restaurants and entertainment venues but to advise against going. This means en masse cancellations but no means for those places to claim back on insurance as often that only pays out if authorities shut them down (normally because there's a bomb threat or something).

I know [MENTION=16159]Bold Seagull[/MENTION] has been following the nudge theory/behavioural science stuff quite closely - it's likely that this approach is being taken, putting it simply, because broadly people react better to this than everything being forcibly closed.

With this approach, different places may shutter up at different times, making it a more gradual process.

The economic situation is clearly key, so I was heartened that the lead story on the Radio 2 news at 8am was about economic measures to help businesses, and it's also the lead story on the BBC website.

 

[Is it PotG?]

Interesting that only the UK is following this plan. I wonder why the rest of Europe and much of the world is so thick as shit to be doing things very differently. Don't they know that the **** Boris Johnson and Donald the Strumpet are the most intelligent in the world..?

It's not JUST the UK.

Sound a bit angry there.

 

[blockhseagull]

Isn’t the problem with a lock down that there is no ‘exit strategy’ ?

With no high infection rate and widespread immunity isn’t it just going to spike once more when the restrictions are lifted ?

Or are we heading for 12-18 months of peaks and troughs until a vaccine or herd immunity is achieved ?

 

[CheeseRolls]

Why would anyone trust a plan when the people producing the stats have already admitted they’ve got it really wrong once already?

Dan I had a rant about herd immunity a few days back and a healthy scepticism is no bad thing. The data is changing on a daily basis, so you have to give them some leeway for that. I suspect that the only thing worse than following a bad plan, is large numbers disregarding the plans all together.

 

[Bozza]

Why would anyone trust a plan when the people producing the stats have already admitted they’ve got it really wrong once already?

You know what?

I'm happy to give some leeway to people who are dealing with something unprecedented in our lifetime, something they and we hoped we'd never see. I fully expect plans to change as the situation evolves and more data is gathered to allow decisions to be be better shaped.

Commencing a plan that attempts to keep the demand on the NHS to a workable level (stopping us "doing an Italy"), buying some breathing space to put in economic and social plans and actions to protect the vulnerable and the economy feels a reasonable place to be right now.

Let me remind you, gently, that a week or so ago you were saying something like "I work for a train company, we get the inside scoop and there's nothing to worry about here."

 

[sparkie]

Isn’t the problem with a lock down that there is no ‘exit strategy’ ?

With no high infection rate and widespread immunity isn’t it just going to spike once more when the restrictions are lifted ?

Or are we heading for 12-18 months of peaks and troughs until a vaccine or herd immunity is achieved ?

A lockdown allows more ventilators to be built, more drugs to be tested for re-purposing, and more vaccine research.