The Coronavirus plan, Stan

[Dave the OAP]

 

[Deleted member 2719]

Why don't they leave it to parental choice whether children go to school or not?

I completely understand the argument that some children of emergency workers need to be cared for. And schools should be kept open for this reason.

But when the parents are able to look after the kids why force them to school?

I agree, my gut instinct has been saying pull the kids out tomorrow, no one but no one will tell me what we should do with our children, the gut instinct of a parent is far stronger and it needs to be done on a case by case scenario.


The world will change, I will be trying to map out the future before we get there.

 

[blockhseagull]

A lockdown allows more ventilators to be built, more drugs to be tested for re-purposing, and more vaccine research.

I understand all of that, and I’m not advocating against a lockdown.

However it can’t go on indefinitely..... so I’m guessing the situation going forward is going to be just that. In and out of restrictions and lock downs to attempt to reduce the peaks but still maintain an economy until we find an answer to the virus or have a herd immunity

 

[Insel affe]

In the Guardian there is a report of queues in the USA around gun shops, and sales of weapons and ammunition being up to 170% higher than normal! .

America will self implode, the religious extremists (Christian) militia groups along with right wing extremists are arming themselves for forth coming Armageddon. My wife's father who is unfortunately a Trump supporter and goes to a Christian church with dubious beliefs (although not racist per say) has sent through some rather disturbing texts and emails about how he thinks this is going to pan out and who is responsible.

Dangerous and worrying times indeed.

 

[cjd]

It's not JUST the UK.

Sound a bit angry there.

View attachment 121113

No, I'm not angry, but I am sad and very worried for my family in the UK. Particularly my eldest daughter who is a nursing sister at A & E Worthing Hospital and at the frontline. The management ( suits) are just as dithering as our Government and Prime Minister which is causing more chaos and uncertainty.

I like your posts generally and I wish you and your family well during these challenging times.

 

[peterward]

It'll all be over by Christmas.

Hope so, not sure how to tell the 6 year old, Santa is in self isolation.

 

[HalfaSeatOn]

I understand all of that, and I’m not advocating against a lockdown.

However it can’t go on indefinitely..... so I’m guessing the situation going forward is going to be just that. In and out of restrictions and lock downs to attempt to reduce the peaks but still maintain an economy until we find an answer to the virus or have a herd immunity

PM's focus on businesses this afternoon will interesting on how to maintain an economy when restrictions and lock downs are likely to be for another 12 - 18 months until we find an answer to the virus or have a herd immunity. Ironically, it probably needs an approach more akin to Corbyn.

 

[Insel affe]

PM's focus on businesses this afternoon will interesting on how to maintain an economy when restrictions and lock downs are likely to be for another 12 - 18 months until we find an answer to the virus or have a herd immunity. Ironically, it probably needs an approach more akin to Corbyn.

I was sent this from an American relative

Conclusions of Goldman Sachs Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:

50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.

70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.

Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.

The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.

Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly.

Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.

There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.

China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.

Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.

S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.

There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.

In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US.

Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.

There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like ‪9/11‬ than it does like 2008.

 

[Bozza]

Hope so, not sure how to tell the 6 year old, Santa is in self isolation.

I was about to make a post related to this...

My 9-y-o's birthday is at the end of April, so I'm going to look to get stuff for him very quickly just in case all non-food shops shut and/or online deliveries stop.

I might look to try and cover off Christmas too.

 

[Iggle Piggle]

You know what?

I'm happy to give some leeway to people who are dealing with something unprecedented in our lifetime, something they and we hoped we'd never see. I fully expect plans to change as the situation evolves and more data is gathered to allow decisions to be be better shaped.

Commencing a plan that attempts to keep the demand on the NHS to a workable level (stopping us "doing an Italy"), buying some breathing space to put in economic and social plans and actions to protect the vulnerable and the economy feels a reasonable place to be right now.

Let me remind you, gently, that a week or so ago you were saying something like "I work for a train company, we get the inside scoop and there's nothing to worry about here."

Taleb is arrogant and his style isn't my cup of tea but his Black Swan theory is relevant here.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

 

[Marty___Mcfly]

I know [MENTION=16159]Bold Seagull[/MENTION] has been following the nudge theory/behavioural science stuff quite closely - it's likely that this approach is being taken, putting it simply, because broadly people react better to this than everything being forcibly closed.

With this approach, different places may shutter up at different times, making it a more gradual process.

The economic situation is clearly key, so I was heartened that the lead story on the Radio 2 news at 8am was about economic measures to help businesses, and it's also the lead story on the BBC website.

I took a walk through Boundary Road this morning and it looked like pretty much all the cafes were open with customers inside. So not sure how much impact the guidance is having but I guess some people will be staying away. Looks like businesses may stay open until they run out of customers or are forced to close.

 

[Stat Brother]

Hope so, not sure how to tell the 6 year old, Santa is in self isolation.

[tweet]1239582101533593600[/tweet]

 

[Taybha]

I watched Boris and his chums and could not help but think of this guy when the expert was trying to explain why we were doing things differently .

 

[Sorrel]

One of the problems with the country-wide strategies is that we probably ought to enforce a different set of behaviour for the cities and countryside. That would be probably too hard to explain, but I would guess that it is the danger of infection in the cities that is driving the French and others responses.

 

[Insel affe]

[tweet]1239582101533593600[/tweet]

This clearly shows how we should be acting, I am sure children throughout the country are very worried, i know is (very worried for her grand parents and homeless). The school play ground gossip can almost be on the same level as bile and blind ignorance as NSC.... Almost.

Well done Norway.

 

[Is it PotG?]

No, I'm not angry, but I am sad and very worried for my family in the UK. Particularly my eldest daughter who is a nursing sister at A & E Worthing Hospital and at the frontline. The management (suits) are just as dithering as our Government and Prime Minister which is causing more chaos and uncertainty.

I like your posts generally and I wish you and your family well during these challenging times.

Thanks, and similarly I wish the best for all in these troubled times.

Whatever politics we believe, times like this are very, very rare and extremely complex. We have to follow some course as indicated by our leaders, whether we voted for them or not.

If we ignore direction, and all go our separate ways, then carnage is the least worrying result.

As a nation, and a planet, I'm sure we'll come through, albeit with some tragic losses along the way.

Common sense is, I believe, as important as any edict from the bods at the top.

Our medical workers deserve nothing but enormous praise for their efforts, which are sure to become more challenging in the weeks ahead.

Fingers crossed.

 

[Weststander]

No, I'm not angry, but I am sad and very worried for my family in the UK. Particularly my eldest daughter who is a nursing sister at A & E Worthing Hospital and at the frontline. The management ( suits) are just as dithering as our Government and Prime Minister which is causing more chaos and uncertainty.

I like your posts generally and I wish you and your family well during these challenging times.

I have family working at Worthing Hospital. If under 60 with no serious underlying health condition, they are not in grave danger. We all likely get the virus anyway. The overriding point is to ultimately minimise the spread to those who are vulnerable.

No one is suggesting that under-60’s health professionals are in danger, even Len McCkuskey at the weekend was promoting an expansion of the numbers working in the NHS, by nationalising Nuffield and BUPA hospitals.

 

[Weststander]

Talk of changing production lines to produce ventilators, still feels a little half arsed. In the last couple of months, I have been at hospital sites in Liverpool and Brighton, where hospital builds have been going on for two years, without any real signs of completion.

To manage this situation, we don't need general purpose hospitals, we need production lines of isolation, infection control and a limited range of treatments, which includes ventilators. If we can't match the Wuhan two week hospital build, surely we should be looking at military style pop up hospitals.

Brighton - was on target, but in the first huge block built, they ordered the wrong type of windows, which would corrode to sea salt! Giving an unnecessary one year delay.

Liverpool - all hospitals are functioning. But the huge new hospital is running 5 years behind schedule, with the constructors Carillon going under, then structural flaws found in their work.

 

[Peter Grummit]

You know what?

I'm happy to give some leeway to people who are dealing with something unprecedented in our lifetime, something they and we hoped we'd never see. I fully expect plans to change as the situation evolves and more data is gathered to allow decisions to be be better shaped.

Commencing a plan that attempts to keep the demand on the NHS to a workable level (stopping us "doing an Italy"), buying some breathing space to put in economic and social plans and actions to protect the vulnerable and the economy feels a reasonable place to be right now.

Let me remind you, gently, that a week or so ago you were saying something like "I work for a train company, we get the inside scoop and there's nothing to worry about here."

However, what the modelling shows is there's precious little leeway that we can afford. The following conclusion struck me as particularly scary:

In the UK, this conclusion has only been reached in the last few days, with the refinement of estimates of likely ICU demand due to COVID-19 based on experience in Italy and the UK (previous planning estimates assumed half the demand now estimated) and with the NHS providing increasing certainty around the limits of hospital surge capacity.
We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time. The social and economic effects of the measures which are needed to achieve this policy goal will be profound. Many countries have adopted such measures already, but even those countries at an earlier stage of their epidemic (such as the UK) will need to do so imminently.

This implies to me we could pay a heavy price for delaying adopting the suppression strategy.

I have no training in this area and am happy to rely on the judgement of experts such as Imperial College (of which I'm proud to be an alumni). However, modelling that relies on a large number of assumptions would normally present scenario tests to understand how sensitive the results are to these assumptions. The key area here may be the assumptions around the proportion of infections which don't show symptoms. Given the tiny proportion of people tested, and anecdotal evidence of those who are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic (eg high profile individuals) it would surely make sense to test the robustness of that assumption. I accept this could work both ways - more asymptomatic sufferers could inadvertently increase the rate of infection OR the 'herd immunity' effect could reduce it.

PG

 

[Nixonator]

Amazing how many people can misinterpret that paper and/or make it political.

If you actually read it through, it suggests that any earlier action would have made very little difference (unless we completely locked down our borders in early January).

EVERYONE is on the same path, at different stages with the same suppression and mitigation measures applied in variation - with China being the most extreme, measures that will unlikely be replicated in the western world.

When China attempts to restart (slowly), they could easily have a rebound and immediately have to adopt the same measures.

We are employing delay tactics here, R&D is paramount and will be the only long-term solution.