- Aug 8, 2005
- 27,242
- Thread starter
- #16,841
[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]
- Thread starter Giraffe
- Start date
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Coldeanseagull
Opinionated
-11c? Where have they moved Withdean to?
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
There is little to no agreement on what the outlook is for next week, especially down here. It ranges from cold to chilly to wet and milder.
Yes please!
Weststander
Well-known member
ECMRW show zero snow for us and mild as the precipitation passes, whilst GFS show us dry and cold as the system passes over Brittany and Loire.
As a snow lover, we need a mid ground of the contrasting air masses meeting mid Channel.
Algernon
Well-known member
When you say "us" are you talking Sussex?
What exactly are you saying anyway?
Are we/you/me getting snow or not?
I's gots to know
Please say yes, please say yes for turning Newmarket into Newmarctic.
Weststander
Well-known member
Yes (my NSC username shows Brighton).
A week away you're forecast to either be bitterly cold and dry, or in the middle of a Snowmageddon.
Algernon
Well-known member
I thought your "we" might've been the UK.
Thanks for explaining.
I really hope it's Snowmageddon.
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
That said, we're getting towards the point where the computer models will need to 'decide'. Today's output is a little more hopefully for colder conditions and even snow, even down here.
The GFS and ECM 6z runs both showed a much better defined cluster in their ensemble for the cold to get right across our area before any precipitation arrives, but it's not unanimous.
More runs are needed.
This is changing about 5 times a day on the model-watching forum (very very much like on here, things go from deep joy, to gloom, to excitement again within minutes, with factions trying to ramp things up and naysayers saying 'it won't happen' at every turn) - I'm going to stick to looking out of the window at streetlights
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Why do you think I and others like @casbom and @Audax haven't been 'ramping' on here? There has been so much uncertainty, and as you say, wild emotional swings on the weather forums from elation to despair. Too much data for most.This is changing about 5 times a day on the model-watching forum (very very much like on here, things go from deep joy, to gloom, to excitement again within minutes, with factions trying to ramp things up and naysayers saying 'it won't happen' at every turn) - I'm going to stick to looking out of the window at streetlights
I'm a cautious person when it comes to forecasting - I try not to hopecast or over-reach.
As things stand, the rest of this month and if the seasonal models are to be believed, into February looks very interesting for cold / snow lovers, but there is still a degree on uncertainty.
Indeed - I don't post on there but do enjoy the read. Seem to recall similar levels of excitement last year that turned to nothing.....some of their posters are worse than some on here
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
I only post on there rarely, it's more of a spectator sport!Indeed - I don't post on there but do enjoy the read. Seem to recall similar levels of excitement last year that turned to nothing.....some of their posters are worse than some on here
Unless you frequent the forums, you wouldn't realise just how many 'near misses' we have, be it snow, or heat-waves or thundery breakdowns.
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
Oi you’ve already had plenty of snow on your pre Xmas luxury holiday ..don’t be greedy
Too many posters over on Netweather never seem to learn that the models are just that: models. They aren't "forecasts". That's why all of the models actually have multiple runs, and they never ever produce the same results from one run to another. It only takes one small change early in the run for the rest of the run to go in a different direction.
Much the same with the climate change "forecasts" - the models get run over and over and over again to produce a range of results, and as long as you're talking to a reputable scientist they won't say "global average temperature will rise by X over the next 50 years". They'll say "we're confident it will rise between X and Y, and Z is the most likely based on current modelling" (Z being somewhere between X and Y).
(FWIW, when I left university my first part-time job of any note was as a research assistant helping revise a chapter that went into the IPCC Third Assessment Report back in 2001. Still sore about not getting credited on that - was told RAs don't get credit as they don't contribute final text. Despite the fact some of my text suggestions made it to the final text.)
vegster
Sanity Clause
- May 5, 2008
- 28,273
On the BBC South Today weather on Tuesday evening Alexis Greene said that " Forecasters are concerned about a possible change in the weather Monday/Tuesday next week which may bring snow....." I genuinely said to Mrs V that it was either scaremongering or extreme arse covering given the fact that there is almost no chance of predicting a week ahead. I think I'm right in saying that over 48 hours ahead the odds on any sort of certainly fall off rapidly.. oh. unless you have a humongous anticyclone over us.
The overall pattern is highlight suggestive ... exactly what we get, still up in the air. I think it's fairly certain at this point that Scotland is in for some pretty cold weather next week. Exactly how far south (and how much snow with it) that gets is TBC. The M4 snow shield might manifest itself.
The M4 Snow Shield is a thing then?
Seems fairly real where the M4 crosses Wiltshire... we're a few miles south of it.
NW Indiana will have 5 to 8 inches of snow 100% chance on Friday January 12 and then another 1 to 2 inches of snow overnight into Saturday morning.
thedonkeycentrehalf
Moved back to wear the gloves (again)
- Jul 7, 2003
- 9,358
Having been in Indiana after heavy snowfall it is fair to say that while the people of Indiana just get on with their lives, we only need a couple of millimetres of snow here and everything stops. You should share this thread with your local friends and see just how much they laugh over our reaction to snow.