- Aug 8, 2005
- 27,150
- Thread starter
- #16,841
Next Wednesday at present looks like:
- 11c and heavy rain here.
- a blizzard in the Chilterns, East Anglia and Midlands.
Next Wednesday at present looks like:
- 11c and heavy rain here.
- a blizzard in the Chilterns, East Anglia and Midlands.
Yes please!
When you say "us" are you talking Sussex?ECMRW show zero snow for us and mild as the precipitation passes, whilst GFS show us dry and cold as the system passes over Brittany and Loire.
As a snow lover, we need a mid ground of the contrasting air masses meeting mid Channel.
When you say "us" are you talking Sussex?
What exactly are you saying anyway?
Are we/you/me getting snow or not?
I's gots to know
Please say yes, please say yes for turning Newmarket into Newmarctic.
I thought your "we" might've been the UK.Yes (my NSC username shows Brighton).
A week away you're forecast to either be bitterly cold and dry, or in the middle of a Snowmageddon.
That said, we're getting towards the point where the computer models will need to 'decide'. Today's output is a little more hopefully for colder conditions and even snow, even down here.There is little to no agreement on what the outlook is for next week, especially down here. It ranges from cold to chilly to wet and milder.
This is changing about 5 times a day on the model-watching forum (very very much like on here, things go from deep joy, to gloom, to excitement again within minutes, with factions trying to ramp things up and naysayers saying 'it won't happen' at every turn) - I'm going to stick to looking out of the window at streetlights
Why do you think I and others like @casbom and @Audax haven't been 'ramping' on here? There has been so much uncertainty, and as you say, wild emotional swings on the weather forums from elation to despair. Too much data for most.This is changing about 5 times a day on the model-watching forum (very very much like on here, things go from deep joy, to gloom, to excitement again within minutes, with factions trying to ramp things up and naysayers saying 'it won't happen' at every turn) - I'm going to stick to looking out of the window at streetlights
Indeed - I don't post on there but do enjoy the read. Seem to recall similar levels of excitement last year that turned to nothing.....some of their posters are worse than some on hereWhy do you think I and others like @casbom and @Audax haven't been 'ramping' on here? There has been so much uncertainty, and as you say, wild emotional swings on the weather forums from elation to despair. Too much data for most.
I'm a cautious person when it comes to forecasting - I try not to hopecast or over-reach.
As things stand, the rest of this month and if the seasonal models are to be believed, into February looks very interesting for cold / snow lovers, but there is still a degree on uncertainty.
I only post on there rarely, it's more of a spectator sport!Indeed - I don't post on there but do enjoy the read. Seem to recall similar levels of excitement last year that turned to nothing.....some of their posters are worse than some on here
Oi you’ve already had plenty of snow on your pre Xmas luxury holiday ..don’t be greedyECMRW show zero snow for us and mild as the precipitation passes, whilst GFS show us dry and cold as the system passes over Brittany and Loire.
As a snow lover, we need a mid ground of the contrasting air masses meeting mid Channel.
Why do you think I and others like @casbom and @Audax haven't been 'ramping' on here? There has been so much uncertainty, and as you say, wild emotional swings on the weather forums from elation to despair. Too much data for most.
On the BBC South Today weather on Tuesday evening Alexis Greene said that " Forecasters are concerned about a possible change in the weather Monday/Tuesday next week which may bring snow....." I genuinely said to Mrs V that it was either scaremongering or extreme arse covering given the fact that there is almost no chance of predicting a week ahead. I think I'm right in saying that over 48 hours ahead the odds on any sort of certainly fall off rapidly.. oh. unless you have a humongous anticyclone over us.That said, we're getting towards the point where the computer models will need to 'decide'. Today's output is a little more hopefully for colder conditions and even snow, even down here.
The GFS and ECM 6z runs both showed a much better defined cluster in their ensemble for the cold to get right across our area before any precipitation arrives, but it's not unanimous.
More runs are needed.
On the BBC South Today weather on Tuesday evening Alexis Greene said that " Forecasters are concerned about a possible change in the weather Monday/Tuesday next week which may bring snow....." I genuinely said to Mrs V that it was either scaremongering or extreme arse covering given the fact that there is almost no chance of predicting a week ahead. I think I'm right in saying that over 48 hours ahead the odds on any sort of certainly fall off rapidly.. oh. unless you have a humongous anticyclone over us.
The M4 Snow Shield is a thing then?The overall pattern is highlight suggestive ... exactly what we get, still up in the air. I think it's fairly certain at this point that Scotland is in for some pretty cold weather next week. Exactly how far south (and how much snow with it) that gets is TBC. The M4 snow shield might manifest itself.
Having been in Indiana after heavy snowfall it is fair to say that while the people of Indiana just get on with their lives, we only need a couple of millimetres of snow here and everything stops. You should share this thread with your local friends and see just how much they laugh over our reaction to snow.NW Indiana will have 5 to 8 inches of snow 100% chance on Friday January 12 and then another 1 to 2 inches of snow overnight into Saturday morning.