rogersix
Well-known member
- Jan 18, 2014
- 8,201
you do the math
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[Politics] The 2024 US Election - Trump v Harris
- Thread starter Zeberdi
- Start date
Change at Barnham
Well-known member
Can anyone advise when the results of the crucial swing States are expected to be declared (UK time)?
i.e. do we stay up or do we go to bed and set the alarm to get up early?
i.e. do we stay up or do we go to bed and set the alarm to get up early?
Madafwo
I'm probably being facetious.
- Nov 11, 2013
- 1,692
If you're able to sleep on Tuesday/Wednesday night you're in a better place than me.
- Oct 20, 2022
- 6,691
- Thread starter
- #7,945
Then you have no idea what the outcome will be - the swing states - probably even just Pennsylvania- will decide the whole election - the polling ( at best within a margin of 3-6%) does not help when the margins of winning or losing could be as low as a few thousand votes.
- Oct 20, 2022
- 6,691
- Thread starter
- #7,946
It’s getting really annoying now - with most MSM saying it’s a dead heat in key states it’s unbelievable that people on social media, completely unqualified in data analysis think they can call this - it’s all hubris and bluff
I won’t be patting anyone on the back for guess work - there’s literally a 50 % chance of guessing right - it’s just attention seeking -amongst all the noise.
I agree that I do not KNOW what the outcome will be. Obviously. None of us do.
My views are based on a number of factors, a couple of which being the turnouts so far, and then specifically the turnouts of female voters, as females are polling for Harris way higher than for Trump.
aolstudios
Well-known member
Well, exactly. Self indulgent idiots insisting on perfection empower monstersShe could have had a go...maybe endorsing the one that isn't a narcissistic, autocratic, Putin loving, climate denier
aolstudios
Well-known member
From the mouths of fools...
- Oct 20, 2022
- 6,691
- Thread starter
- #7,950
And yet in Arizona another key swing State, the turnout of male Republican voters is much higher than female voters turning out. I posted all this a few days ago explaining why you can’t take just snippets of voting behaviour and apply it consistently across all swing states.
Even within States, voting behaviour and turnout significantly varies within counties across the State and between rural and urban areas..
The fact is we either know or we don’t how likely a candidate is going to win an election and unless there are clear margins, it’s the latter - we simply haven’t a clue in this election - we can only report/highlight things that might help.
Like the decision by SCOTUS to uphold the 2022 Penn Supreme Court decision that provisional votes on election day for those that made errors on their returned mail in ballots can be counted.
That decision will not disproportionately help Dems but it will stop them from being unfairly disadvantaged.
Which is EXACTLY what I’m doing, which seems for some reason to be frustrating you?
If you don’t want speculation about the US election, this might not be the thread for you for the next 3 days.
Exactly that
- Oct 20, 2022
- 6,691
- Thread starter
- #7,953
This will help
Bearing in mind if the results in some States and counties within those States are a close as I think they could be then there will be numerous automatic recounts and Trump’s lawyers initiating legal action against election officials and polling stations …
This is a general guide but again it depends how close the count is - ( I would also urge anyone who think they can call the election with any confidence to read the article too!)
When Will We Know Who Won the Election?
We could get results quickly or days after Election Day. Here’s what time polls close in battleground states and updates on when to expect a call.
nymag.com
- Oct 20, 2022
- 6,691
- Thread starter
- #7,954
It is frustrating because people are claiming to be able to call this election when every political analyst and MSM can not.
You completely ignored the fact that Arizona has a high voter turnout of male republicans cf to female turnout - you are only hearing and seeing what you WANT to hear like a proverbial echo chamber validating your guess work.
Feel free to guess who you like if it makes you happy - I prefer to deal with facts- and the facts are as I have repeatedly said, the election is too close to speculate on a winner with any degree of accuracy polling in ALL key swing are within the margin of error and it’s bollox to say otherwise without proof.
I hope you have fun when Harris wins in saying ‘I told you so’ because you will probably be right
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I'm thinking now that,with all the prediction analysis hysteria, which is incredibly high even on NSC (and I'm enjoying reading it!) and no doubt amplified 1000 times in intensity across the US.... it's quite likely that America will burst into flames and burn to a cinder before voting counts are finalized 
You think this is bad? Buckle in for weeks of Trump blustering, whining, accusing, lying and scheming to overturn the result through nefarious scheming.
BN41Albion
Well-known member
- Oct 1, 2017
- 6,785
.... it's quite likely that America will burst into flames and burn to a cinder before voting counts are finalized
Might not be a bad thing what with the amount of absolute lunatics there - it blows my mind how many incredibly uneducated, backward, bible bashing, gun toting, massively overly patriotic, complete nutjobs that live there
- Aug 24, 2020
- 6,885
Frankly, that's just not good enough Zeb.This will help
Bearing in mind if the results in some States and counties within those States are a close as I think they could be then there will be numerous automatic recounts and Trump’s lawyers initiating legal action against election officials and polling stations …
This is a general guide but again it depends how close the count is - ( I would also urge anyone who think they can call the election with any confidence to read the article too!)
When Will We Know Who Won the Election?
We could get results quickly or days after Election Day. Here’s what time polls close in battleground states and updates on when to expect a call.
What is all this 'ET' measurement of time? Where is the de facto, standard, universal measure of time, GMT? Huh?
I don't care what they think the time is in Phoenix, or Milwaukee, or Philadelphia. The only measure of time of day is the time of day it is on the Greenwich meridian.
Peacehaven.
OK.It is frustrating because people are claiming to be able to call this election when every political analyst and MSM can not.
You completely ignored the fact that Arizona has a high voter turnout of male republicans cf to female turnout - you are only hearing and seeing what you WANT to hear like a proverbial echo chamber validating your guess work.
Feel free to guess who you like if it makes you happy - I prefer to deal with facts- and the facts are as I have repeatedly said, the election is too close to speculate on a winner with any degree of accuracy and it’s bollox to say it is.
I hope you have fun when Harris wins in saying ‘I told you so’
I am sorry that people attempting to analyse and speculate is upsetting you so much.
Feel free to put me on ignore as I may continue discussing such matters in a thread designed for this purpose.
I haven’t ignored the Arizona data by the way. But one thing isn’t going to make me ignore a whole load of other things. I’m calling it as I see it, I might be right, I might be wrong.
Also, I don’t think there is pretty much anyone in this thread saying with CERTAINTY what they think will happen. And plenty of the threads I have shared have been from political analysts/people paid to analyse this stuff.
Again, none are generally speaking with absolute certainty, but just giving their thoughts based on what we can perceive so far. And that’s ok.
....random verbal diarrhoea from someone wanting to be a president 