[Politics] The 2024 US Election - Trump v Harris

[Zeberdi]

I think the media will be very wary of 'calling' the states as they normally do, for fear of retribution if they are wrong, so we might all have to wait until the official results.

Remember 2016?

They got it very wrong - we went to bed in our house expecting to wake up to a Hilary win and it was the orange man who won!

Polls tend to overstate Democratic support

Confronting 2016 and 2020 Polling Limitations

Looking at final estimates of the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential race, 93% of national polls overstated the Democratic candidate’s support among voters, while nearly as many (88%) did so in 2016.

www.pewresearch.org

“Looking at final estimates of the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential race, 93% of national polls overstated the Democratic candidate’s support among voters, while nearly as many (88%) did so in 2016.”

“Donald Trump is polling better than in 2016 and 2020, either because the pollsters are compensating for past errors or because he’s emerged as a stronger candidate than expected.”

Who will win the US election? Our experts’ final predictions

With just one week until the election, Trump’s campaign has hit its stride. But do our experts think this is enough to clinch the race?

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[Eric the meek]

I'm off to bed.

One final thought. Everyone has a voice. Let others use theirs. After all, this is a forum....

 

[Bodian]

Remember 2016?

They got it very wrong - we went to bed in our house expecting to wake up to a Hilary win and it was the orange man who won!

Polls tend to overstate Democratic support

Confronting 2016 and 2020 Polling Limitations

Looking at final estimates of the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential race, 93% of national polls overstated the Democratic candidate’s support among voters, while nearly as many (88%) did so in 2016.

www.pewresearch.org

“Looking at final estimates of the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential race, 93% of national polls overstated the Democratic candidate’s support among voters, while nearly as many (88%) did so in 2016.”

“Donald Trump is polling better than in 2016 and 2020, either because the pollsters are compensating for past errors or because he’s emerged as a stronger candidate than expected.”

Who will win the US election? Our experts’ final predictions

With just one week until the election, Trump’s campaign has hit its stride. But do our experts think this is enough to clinch the race?

www.telegraph.co.uk

Yes. But that's pre-vote polling. Not the media calling the states, which they do from a combination of early result tallies, exit polling and so on.

 

[knocky1]

As I said fcuk off and go and troll another thread

Leave this one to people that actually want to discuss the issues.

You started it.
What the hell are you saying?
You're one of the main reasons NSC numbers are falling.
I've been on the orangebungle**** thread since inception and love it. You might have been there under another name ****.
Leave us individual posters alone.

 

[Madafwo]

I think the media will be very wary of 'calling' the states as they normally do, for fear of retribution if they are wrong, so we might all have to wait until the official results.

Rolling news channels will have hours to fill, and there will be exit polls so they're not going to keep those to themselves.

 

[drew]

You started it.
What the hell are you saying?
You're one of the main reasons NSC numbers are falling.
I've been on the orangebungle**** thread since inception and love it. You might have been there under another name ****.
Leave us individual posters alone.

Have you really gone the extra mile to contact others who don't post anymore to find out their reasons. Sterling service.

 

[Zeberdi]

You started it.
What the hell are you saying?
You're one of the main reasons NSC numbers are falling.
I've been on the orangebungle**** thread since inception and love it. You might have been there under another name ****.
Leave us individual posters alone.

Started what?

I had a difference of opinion with another poster and made a point of saying he was entitled to his point of view, you trolled me with a post comparing me to Trump with verbal diarrhoea

As I said, go and troll another thread - this is one of the best threads on NSC so stop trying to derail it.

 

[Mellotron]

With every information that is available to us one has to conclude it is on a knife-edge.

No you don’t. You can conclude whatever you want. There is no wrong or right in how you read it, it’s merely your interpretation of things.

Yours is that it is on a knife edge - others might not believe the same.

It’s all good.

 

[Triggaaar]

According to this article a reasonable indication could be apparent between 10pm and 11.30pm Eastern - this would be around 3am-4.30am in the UK. Might as well get some sleep, and perhaps get up earlier than normal (presuming you have a relatively normal sleep pattern)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/election-night-primer-map-analysis-1.7363084

Thanks. I'll try and forget about it and see what it looks like at 7am.

I feel for Ukrainians, they'll have to stay up all night.

 

[Zeberdi]

No you don’t. You can conclude whatever you want. There is no wrong or right in how you read it, it’s merely your interpretation of things.

Yours is that it is on a knife edge - others might not believe the same.

It’s all good.

Actually you are right.

There is no conclusion to be made - I guess what I meant is that we/well most of us at least are on a knife edge ourselves because we don’t know the conclusion - for all we know Trump or Harris could be leading by a significant majority

And yes - it’s all good - everyone‘s opinion matters

 

[Albion my Albion]

Countries within a country in some ways and I only visited a small percentage of it.

That is a good way to describe it and Indiana, Ohio & Arizona are the worst.

 

[Albion my Albion]

I'm off to bed.

One final thought. Everyone has a voice. Let others use theirs. After all, this is a forum....

Wake up! Wake up! Harris is going to win. Good News!

That probably won't work, will it?

 

[US Seagull]

Harris grabs unexpected last-minute lead over Trump in Iowa poll

In shocking result that could reshape the race, ex-president falls three points behind in a state he won in 2016 and 2020

www.theguardian.com

Ann Selzer is one of the most highly respected polsters in the country and the authority in Iowa.

If Iowa is within the margin of error, Trump is going to be in for a humiliating night on Tuesday.

 

[AZ Gull]

That is a good way to describe it and Indiana, Ohio & Arizona are the worst.

 

[Mellotron]

Harris grabs unexpected last-minute lead over Trump in Iowa poll

In shocking result that could reshape the race, ex-president falls three points behind in a state he won in 2016 and 2020

www.theguardian.com

Ann Selzer is one of the most highly respected polsters in the country and the authority in Iowa.

If Iowa is within the margin of error, Trump is going to be in for a humiliating night on Tuesday.

That poll is insane.

 

[Bold Seagull]

That poll is insane.

Did you see they reported another pollster in Iowa had Trump 9 points ahead!

 

[Motogull]

Well then. The last few days.

Many non religious types will be praying for a certain outcome. A few others will be making sure they have a plentiful supply of 'hand lotion', tissues and wet wipes for screen cleaning.

 

[Mellotron]

Did you see they reported another pollster in Iowa had Trump 9 points ahead!

He won by 8 points last time round, so Seltzer’s is certainly more of an outlier, however her polls are also A* rated and she is pretty much always within 2-3 points.

Who knows?!

 

[nwgull]

That poll has certainly shifted the betting market. Not quite to the same extent as the debate, and Trump is still odds-on, but it’s more than just market noise.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I'm off to bed.

One final thought. Everyone has a voice. Let others use theirs. After all, this is a forum....

What's you problem? If someone else posts something that doesn't stop your 'voice'.

Perhaps you have nothing to say