[Politics] The 2024 US Election - Trump v Harris

[Triggaaar]

She is in Lichtmans system, the incumbent is deemed the governing white house party rather than the individual candidate.

But if the system is any good, it should allow for differences between someone who is the sitting president, and someone who isn't.

 

[Machiavelli]

I'm seeing people interpret these numbers in both directions, to suit their inherent biases. Some suggesting that this is most of the rural vote gone and that a lot left is Urban and therefore more likely to support Harris. There's also the unknown of exactly how Independents are going to break.

It is less of an early mail in vote lead than 2020, but then Trump was actively telling his supporters to NOT vote early in 2020, and he is doing the opposite this time (because he needs a lead early on so he can declare victory again).

The most startling thing in those numbers (to me, at least) is the high % of Independents.

 

[Igzilla]

But if the system is any good, it should allow for differences between someone who is the sitting president, and someone who isn't.

It does. The Dem's lost key #3: Incumbent seeking re-election. Next question?

 

[aolstudios]

That list looks like a rogues gallery of Putin fans. Lol.

Well, exactly.
& predictably...

 

[aolstudios]

She's not the president.

Yet

 

[Westdene Seagull]

In the meantime you may enjoy this on Amazon - I may watch it again myself later

Watch Conspiracy Theory (1997) | Prime Video

Academy Award-winner Mel Gibson stars as a comedically paranoid taxi driver who constantly reveals his crazy conspiracy theories to skeptical Justice Department attorney Julia Roberts.

www.amazon.co.uk

@Crawley Dingo will love it given Gibson has just endorsed Trump. Obviously he and Trump will over look the fact that Gibson is an immigrant from Australia.

 

[FamilyGuy]

The two main concerns for me is the immediate cessation of support for Ukraine, and the diversion of support to Israel.

Trump backs Putin and Netanyahu. What a strategy.

And meanwhile he will complete his main purpose as president, which is to pardon himself from all the charges he is facing and and is about to face, and elevate a couple more nutters to the Supreme Court to ensure his elevation to untouchable status proceeds without issues.

Trump backs anyone that he thinks will be of benefit to him (irrespective of whether he's right or not), and then slags them off and drops them (or says "I don't know him" or "he's an idiot") as soon as he's proven to be wrong, which lets face it, is pretty much all the time..

 

[Triggaaar]

It does. The Dem's lost key #3: Incumbent seeking re-election. Next question?

He doesn't say that. He says he's only got 4 keys to Trump, ignoring the fact that key 3 goes to neither party. Unless you've got a different link showing how he divides the keys?

 

[Igzilla]

He doesn't say that. He says he's only got 4 keys to Trump, ignoring the fact that key 3 goes to neither party. Unless you've got a different link showing how he divides the keys?

Argh! Try this and work it out for yourself, if you can.

https://www.13keystracker.com/

 

[sparkie]

Professor Allan Lichtman who is claimed to be the Nostradamus of election predicting and who some cite as getting 9 of last 10 elections right, but in reality is 10/10 (called Gore in 2000 and recount blocked by Supreme court handing it to George W), has predicted Harris will win and he reaffimed that a week ago.

Doesnt use any polling, but has a system based on 13 keys, and for a challenger to win from incumbent theyd need at least 6 keys, Trump has 4

This from September

Kamala Harris will win election, predicts leading historian Allan Lichtman

Polling ‘Nostradamus’, said to have correctly forecast since 1984 all races except Gore’s loss, says Trump on track to lose

www.theguardian.com

This 1 week ago

But has he added a "Putin Interference" Key since last time ?

 

[BN41Albion]

He was very confident on The Rest is Politics, too, the other day. Alistair Campbell less so, but hopeful. Interesting that Stewart seems so confident though

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

@Crawley Dingo will love it given Gibson has just endorsed Trump. Obviously he and Trump will over look the fact that Gibson is an immigrant from Australia.

Born in the USA. Emigrated to Australia age 12.

Massive arsehat, though.

 

[A1X]

Whatever happens tomorrow, I hope at some point Pete Buttigieg gets a shot, he seems a very reasonable guy (unfortunately as a gay man he probably hasn’t got a chance)

 

[A1X]

View attachment 191800

N, N

 

[Springal]

Farage in attendance as well

 

[Jim in the West]

Whatever happens tomorrow, I hope at some point Pete Buttigieg gets a shot, he seems a very reasonable guy (unfortunately as a gay man he probably hasn’t got a chance)

I heard somewhere that if Harris wins, she's lining him up to be her Chief of Staff.

 

[raymondo]

Farage in attendance as well

Ah Farage.... where DOES he get all his free time and flight funding from .

I see it's yet another Trump rally with zero empty seats

 

[Springal]

Ah Farage.... where DOES he get all his free time and flight funding from .

I see it's yet another Trump rally with zero empty seats

Foreign interference in an election

 

[raymondo]

Whatever happens tomorrow, I hope at some point Pete Buttigieg gets a shot, he seems a very reasonable guy (unfortunately as a gay man he probably hasn’t got a chance)

Really good discussions there . He is calm, well prepared, respectful of the questionner...

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Farage in attendance as well

Has he bet $10K on Trump again, last time?