[Politics] The 2024 US Election - Trump v Harris

[Zeberdi]

The holy grail seems to be a non-biased poll ie. just an actual poll with no spin.

Is there one ?

Not sure because polls have to be financed but 538 will tell you who ran the poll, what the bias is and it’s easy enough to google from there. I tend to average out most of the polls to get a feel for which way candidates are trending but that’s as far as it goes for me personally.

Five-thirty Eight run by Nate Silver provides an aggregate of polling across a range of pollsters but his own predictions and sampling haven’t been without controversy especially since 2016-20 although personally I think he is no worse than anything else out there when it comes to predicting an election winner - there are always inherent limitations in sampling even with weighting but he was right about Biden leading the campaign into a potential big loss for the Dems earlier in the campaign.

What happened to Nate Silver

Once beloved by progressives, Silver now feuds with them regularly. He tells us why.

www.vox.com

 

[peterward]

True enough, yet still a left wing biased poll and Selzer herself has said voters could swing towards Trump on election day - the right biased Emerson poll had Trump ahead by 9 percentage points and the NYT/Siena poll has them dead heat in swing states.

( The New York Times/Siena College is also one of America's most trusted pollsters. Ranked first by 538 on its list of 282 for its historical track record and transparency. Analyst Nate Silver who runs 538, ‘ranks it in the top two firms, giving it an A+ grade’ so I think it could be just as credible as the Selzer poll.)

I’ve posted this previously but it is interesting Pew Research on polling accuracy

Key things to know about U.S. election polling in 2024

Polls are more useful to the public if people have realistic expectations about what surveys can do well – and what they cannot.

www.pewresearch.org

This swing state 538/ABC has me now worried again. Keep yo-yo'ing from feeling sure she will win, to shitting it that he still might. The consequences of which will be devastating.

 

[Mellotron]

This swing state 538/ABC has me now worried again. Keep yo-yo'ing from feeling sure she will win, to shitting it that he still might. The consequences of which will be devastating.

View attachment 191805

From everything I've seen, it seems Arizona is probably locked in for Trump. but that Michigan and Wisconsin SHOULD land for Harris.

But then who the EFF knows.

 

[Hotchilidog]

This swing state 538/ABC has me now worried again. Keep yo-yo'ing from feeling sure she will win, to shitting it that he still might. The consequences of which will be devastating.

View attachment 191805

All within the margin of error, so basically statistical ties. Not much to see here. My gut still says Harris by more than people think. The Dems have been playing this from behind for the whole campaign. Feet are on the ground, doors are being knocked on and phones are being called, there is an energy from Democratic activists that seems to be lacking on the GOP side.

Tomorrow cannot come soon enough. Given that Iowa is one of the least populous states I'd imagine that should declare relatively early, if it even comes close to the Selzer poll (a narrow Trump win would still represent a shift) then we may be able to start making more informed predictions.

 

[Mellotron]

 

[Crawley Dingo]

Of equal importance - what's the sleep/awake strategy of those wanting to follow it closely?

Podcast live streams, lotus eaters on rumble from UK and Valuetainment on utube from U.S.

 

[Crawley Dingo]

I'm setting up my own livestream for friends and others, none here invited.

 

[MTSeagulls]

I'm setting up my own livestream for friends and others, none here invited.

Gutted

 

[Eeyore]

I'm setting up my own livestream for friends and others, none here invited.

Maybe you were right about the diversity thing. After all, whoever wins the race won't have white skin.

 

[Scappa]

I'm setting up my own livestream for friends and others, none here invited.

 

[Mellotron]

I'm setting up my own livestream for friends and others, none here invited.

I love you

 

[Eeyore]

Interesting coming from Rory, who last I knew was teaching at Harvard.

I'm still not getting my hopes up though.

 

[raymondo]

I'm setting up my own livestream for friends and others, none here invited.

Shirley most of us come under 'others'

 

[raymondo]

He gets better every day

 

[Greg Bobkin]

I'm setting up my own livestream for friends and others, none here invited.

I hope you both enjoy it.

 

[Fignon's Ponytail]

I'm setting up my own livestream for friends and others, none here invited.

 

[bhafc99]

The holy grail seems to be a non-biased poll ie. just an actual poll with no spin.

Is there one ?

Well, the poll on this thread still has nearly 5% backing someone other than Biden or Harris on the Dem side, so… there’s that?

 

[aolstudios]

I hope you both enjoy it.

Bit optimistic

 

[GrizzlingGammon]

I'm setting up my own livestream for friends and others, none here invited.

Reminds me of, who was it? simyjim?

 

[Zeberdi]

I'm setting up my own livestream for friends and others, none here invited.

In the meantime you may enjoy this on Amazon - I may watch it again myself later

Watch Conspiracy Theory (1997) | Prime Video

Academy Award-winner Mel Gibson stars as a comedically paranoid taxi driver who constantly reveals his crazy conspiracy theories to skeptical Justice Department attorney Julia Roberts.

www.amazon.co.uk