[Politics] The 2024 US Election - Trump v Harris

[raymondo]

Am I the only one who is confident Harris wins and by a significant margin?

yes!

 

[raymondo]

There's a lot of christofascist evangelicals proudly supporting the slogan "Jesus, guns, babies".

Blimey...I guess as long as they include the word 'Jesus' they feel they can say what they like. Religion f**ks up the world yet again.

 

[Bodian]

I don’t know how people on this thread are calling the result with so much confidence when every US and global political pundits are saying it’s too close to call . Personally, I think it’s really (albeit educated) guess work and some wishful thinking thrown in based on politically biased stories doing the rounds on X and Fb, skewed betting odds and unreliable polling - I think I will stick to what I don’t know and that is who will win this election

Interesting article in the Guardina about polling

Dead-heat poll results are astonishing – and improbable, these experts say

It’s possible the tied race reflects not the sentiments of the voters, but rather risk-averse decision-making by pollsters

www.theguardian.com

 

[Lyndhurst 14]

There's a lot of christofascist evangelicals proudly supporting the slogan "Jesus, guns, babies".

Praise the Lord and pass the ammunition

 

[Withdean South Stand]

Blimey...I guess as long as they include the word 'Jesus' they feel they can say what they like. Religion f**ks up the world yet again.

Which is hilariously ironic given Trump only worships himself.

 

[carlzeiss]

Breaking news from Sweden

 

[aolstudios]

Breaking news from Sweden

Well, that's helpful

 

[Mellotron]

TL/DR - women are coming out in higher numbers.

 

[Jackthelad]

I’m normally good at predicting who will win. I have no idea in this vote, I suspect it will be very close.

 

[Mellotron]

 

[raymondo]

Well, that's helpful

She could have had a go...maybe endorsing the one that isn't a narcissistic, autocratic, Putin loving, climate denier

 

[Eeyore]

TL/DR - women are coming out in higher numbers.

I'd like that to be true. But I'm 'meh' about it. It's just lone voices in Twitter.

 

[Mellotron]

I'd like that to be true. But I'm 'meh' about it. It's just lone voices in Twitter.

It’s building.

 

[jordanseagull]

I'd like that to be true. But I'm 'meh' about it. It's just lone voices in Twitter.

Trump odds-on at Betfair exchange for both states. Silly to listen to people saying they’re 99% sure given the market.

 

[Mellotron]

Trump odds-on at Betfair exchange for both states. Silly to listen to people saying they’re 99% sure given the market.

You understand what’s happening with the betting patterns?

 

[Mellotron]

I find it odd that people think betting (which Republicans are being pushed to do massively, for obvious reasons) is a better indicator of what’s happening than actual factual turnout and voting patterns (ie what’s actually happening!)

 

[jordanseagull]

You understand what’s happening with the betting patterns?

Someone saying they’re 99% sure of something would put their view of the odds at 1/100. Harris is 6/4. It’s a silly, exaggerated Twitter claim no matter what’s going on.

It would be reasonable to argue Harris should be the favourite given the evidence, though.

 

[jordanseagull]

I find it odd that people think betting is a better indicator of what’s happening than actual factual turnout and voting patterns (ie what’s actually happening!)

I assume that person has put a whole wedge on an implied 1.01 at 2.40 then - opportunity of a lifetime!

 

[US Seagull]

She could have had a go...maybe endorsing the one that isn't a narcissistic, autocratic, Putin loving, climate denier

Yeah, I get that voting for the "lesser of two evils" isn't entirely satisfying. But if you think Harris isn't climate-friendly enough, the alternative is the actively climate hostile.

Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

 

[tedebear]

The number of "polls" being fact checked as AI generated falsifications now is the new scary reality....