[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

[Lenny Rider]

I refer back to the well educated American lady we sat next to at breakfast at Heathrow in July on our way to the Euro final, she said regrettably the US would never elect a Woman President, let alone one of colour, in her lifetime.




Just watching Trump re-enacting Nuremberg on ITV, he’s now predicting ‘The Golden Age of America’

 

[Bozza]

Surely actual voting is more reliable than relying on polymarket etc - doesn’t that just tell you who the betters think will win based on the current snapshot of time - that is why there has been so much fluctuation in the betting market? ie for weeks betting was way out of synch with polling because of Trump’s rhetoric largely - then came Iowa.

- it’s been Trump leading the narrative that the betting markets were more accurate than the polls to suit his ‘election was a steal’ agenda should he lose.

Don’t despair yet - as I said above, we’re seeing a lot of red at the moment because the rural votes are finishing counting much faster that the densely populated Democratic urban areas - I suspect the betting markets are reacting to that.

MSN saying swing States still too early to call - including ones she must win

“With 35% of the expected vote counted in Wisconsin, the presidential race is too close to call.”

“With 14% of the expected vote counted in Michigan, the presidential race is too close to call.”

“Pennsylvania too close to call - 48% expected votes in (Est. remaining 3,660,000)”

Donald Trump	R	0	1,609,336	50.1%
Kamala Harris	D	0	1,575,461	49.0%
Chase Oliver	I	0	14,740	0.5%

No.

And that’s not just hindsight.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

If they can't move away from they didn't vote because she's a black woman, Vance will win next time up.

 

[Berty23]

If trump goes through with the threatened tariffs then I struggle to see how Americans will be anything other than worse off. If he goes through with rounding up immigrants with skin he doesn’t like then again they will end up worse off. If he scraps healthcare and lowers taxes for the wealthy I will be amazed if the poor feel richer.

It is all a bit like Brexit isn’t it. People have an enemy created for them and someone they can blame for feeling poor. In this country it was also something unrelated to the actual issue of the rich keeping so much for themselves too.

 

[beorhthelm]

i cant work out if Trump is supposed to destroy western society or slink off to the golf course for 4 yrs.

 

[peterward]

If they can't move away from they didn't vote because she's a black woman, Vance will win next time up.

There won't be a next time.

Or if there is, it will mirror Russian type elections.

 

[drew]

She didn't cut through, her interviews and rallies where mainly about how bad Trump was and not what she wanted to do.





O it's 100 percent on Biden and the party.

They didn't have a proper succession plan and Biden should have pulled out months before.

Can't help think that with a bit more time, Michelle Obama would have been a better candidate!!

 

[Goldstone Guy]

i cant work out if Trump is supposed to destroy western society or slink off to the golf course for 4 yrs.

Could be Putin destroying western society while Trump plays golf.

 

[Brighton1959]

God it’s depressing listening to Trumps victory speech. A worrying 4 years ahead.

 

[Dibdab]

Worth repeating what I said last night, democracy is carving itself to splinters while autocracy is having its best year since 1937.

Why is it? Dont get carried away with nonsense media narratives.

 

[drew]

i cant work out if Trump is supposed to destroy western society or slink off to the golf course for 4 yrs.

Surely possible to do both!

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Can't help think that with a bit more time, Michelle Obama would have been a better candidate!!

Concur

She's got personality / brains / backing

 

[FatSuperman]

I wouldn’t be surprised if he focuses on trying to change laws so Presidents are immune to all prosecution.

He’ll probably pull US support for Ukraine quite quickly. Might even lift trading restrictions. So that’ll embolden Russia to be much worse in the battlegrounds around the world. Might go for a mayo country next as he knows nobody has the balls to do what needs to be done.

Well done America, you’ve allowed yourself to be duped by conspiracy theorists, Russian propaganda, and billionaire playboys. I have a suspicion that none of them have the best interests of the common person in mind.

 

[DavidinSouthampton]

Behave. They voted in a black man so that is a crock. The reality is that hardly anyone here knows the realities of living in the US where many have seen a huge deterioration in living standard under the Dems whilst homelessness is an epodemic in some cities, and immigration has allowed to run wild whilst billions of dollars get ploughed into far away wars that could have been negotiated to settlement years ago (but the media would never allow you to believe this). This biggest lesson here for many is that you've been had by the majority of the mainstream media, who have done everything they could to paint Harris as good and likely to win and Trump as bad and likely to lose. Harris was an awful candidate and whenever she was taken off the rehearsed message just turned to word salad.

It’s a triumph for nastiness, cheating, lying. If he gets imprisoned will he run the country from jail?

 

[Zeberdi]

A decent chunk of voters have moved over to Trump this time, how many of those would have stayed with more policy and more details?

Yes, I agree but I think the issue has been with the messaging not with the lack of policy.

The Dems did have policies, Harris had a policy plan - yet, as I said several days ago, she needed to stop saying why people should vote Trump and start focussing on why they should vote for her and get that policy messaging across to the electorate. They got sucked in to Trump’s gameplan.

As I said, the narrative of the campaign has been controlled all along by Musk and Trump on social media:

Fake news and AI videos swamping Fb, repeated fear mongering, lying mantras about immigration, constantly playing someone victimised by the media, by the Department of Justice, by Washington and the ‘deep state’. Whatever way possible, Trump made himself larger than life, parodying himself for laughs, with rambling word salads, shocking comments, whatever he could do to suck the air out of the room and keep the focus on himself.

No doubt there will be plenty of time for post-election analysis - at the moment, I just think the next 4 years with Trump as ‘leader of the free world’ will be chaotic, dangerous and unpredictable …

Or

best case scenario - he stays in the Presidential bedroom stuffing his face with hamburgers while tweeting narcissistic word salads on Truth Social for the next 4 years as he did in his first term while the grown ups in the room did damage limitation and tried to run the country.

 

[portslade seagull]

Oh well let's hope it's not as bad as many of us think it will be

 

[nwgull]

No.

And that’s not just hindsight.

Yep. Betting markets are always a good indication of a political event. People putting money down tend to ignore their own bias and rely on considered analysis of the situation.

 

[nwgull]

No.

And that’s not just hindsight.

Double post

 

[A1X]

It's a bold choice for people to try and claim what Democrats should do in future elections given there's a non-zero chance there might not be any future presidential elections from here.

Trump has vowed to go after his enemies, you can bet that includes many top Democrats. And thanks to SCOTUS he can do whatever he wants to them, and it's all perfectly legal. Perhaps we should offer the Obamas safe passage while we still can?

 

[chickens]

It’s the people of Ukraine I worry for. He’s shown a worrying propensity for fawning over Putin.

The rest (while occasionally abhorrent) I’m less fussed over, but my great fear is that he’s going to appease Putin and hand over Ukraine’s land.