Depends where you live. This isn’t America.
[Politics] Sir Keir Starmer’s route to Number 10
- Thread starter Rdodge30
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Nothing for me beats the night of May 2, 97. I stayed up most of it watching plum after loathsome plum lose their seat, tittering. GF of the time (a tory) had long gone to bed.
If Labour do particularly well this may signal that the public is ready to embrace 'worthy but dull' again, with the present lot tainted by recent memories of the tumescence of Johnson and the disgrace of whatsername. Unless Sunak can distance himself from these people (who made him) he'll struggle.
And I say that as someone who thinks that Sunak sounds very plausible, almost Blair-like (very similar voice and intonation). I doubt he has the balls or vision to have his own Clause 4 moment, though. If he said 'f*** it, we need to be in the single market and to do something meaningful about immigration' Sunak would win, I suspect. Oh, the irony.
nwgull
Well-known member
Parliament doesn't need to be dissovled until mid December 2024, meaning that te next GE doesn't need to be held until mid January 2025. Chances are that Sunak will cling on until the bitter end rather than call a spring/summer GE, so 10-11 months before the next GE will be more like January 2024. Not surprised that Starmer is keeping his powder dry.It’s rare for the leader of the opposition to win a majority in a general election- in the 44 years since Thatcher did it, only Blair has managed it and he brought out his manifesto and campaigned on it 10 or 11 months before the GE
Blair declared his intentions, offered his solutions and campaigned as if he knew exactly what he was doing pushing his policies at every given opportunity.
Far cry from Sir Keir, who it seems is still campaigning on being ‘not the tories’
A lot of double speak and some back tracking from him so far but to be fair nothing particularly out of the ordinary in that, politicians from both parties do the same.
It seems to me that whenever Sir Keir or any of the shadow cabinet have to walk back what they have suggested may happen when they are in Government, it is because the fiscally responsible Rachel Reeves has said there isn’t the money for that. She is strong and electable.
If … and it’s still if we get a Labour government, my money will be on Ed Milliband to be the first minister to leave the cabinet because the Chancellor will not fully fund his Green policies. That’s if he makes it that far without resigning from the shadow cabinet!!!
Colonel Mustard
Well-known member
- Jun 18, 2023
- 2,240
97 was great because it genuinely felt like a new beginning, and because Blair had somehow reinvented the idea of what a politician could be. The next GE at the moment doesn’t offer that sense of optimism. It’s more like a sense of relief. Labour look set to win but Starmer so far has none of the Blair factor. I think most people will be voting against something rather than for something.
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Pavilionaire
Well-known member
- Jul 7, 2003
- 31,262
I think I'll take in the political discourse until c 1.30am. I'll be interested to see what the political analysts say about the immediate future of the Tories in the lead-up to the hugely symbolic switch to Labour of Boris's Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat.
I suspect there will be a summer of reflection for Tory MPs, with a further swathe of "not standing at the next GE' announcements. Sunak will have a job on his hands, but personal vanity will probably mean he'll drag out his tenure for as long as is politically possible for him. The GE has to be held by 28 Jan 25, parliament must be dissolved by 17 Dec 24. Sunak's best hope is to get rid of the old guard, stock the Cabinet with fresh faces in September, rally the troops at conference season and come up with one or two surprises on policy thereafter. He could then be riding the decrease in inflation and eventual reversal of the upward trend in interest rates. so - yes - you cannot write him off.
Starmer needs to be ready to counter this threat by having bold initiatives and appointments of his own.
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Comrade Sam
Comrade Sam
Sorry but I can't be bothered to read the thread. I assume Starmer has decided he doesn't want any votes from anyone that works in education or the parents of poor children.
- Oct 17, 2008
- 14,488
Yet you could put Corbyn up against these Tories and still lose. Starmer will win. Meaning no more Tories. That’s all that matters.
Comrade Sam
Comrade Sam
Not if everything is still shit!
- Oct 17, 2008
- 14,488
It will be. Guaranteed. But it would be no matter who comes in having to undo all these years of poor governance, underfunding and incompetence. When you then factor in worldwide issues not unique to Britain, like high inflation, the impact of Russia invading Ukraine, plus damage done by Brexit, general market instability…
It all went wrong for Labour when they picked the wrong Miliband. We all know it. Now is their chance to regain power finally, and hopefully slowly start to turn the ship around.
But sorry, Comrade, it won’t be with hard left socialist policies and will never be in our lifetime. The public have consistently rejected it, even against extremely weak opposition.
Mellor 3 Ward 4
Well-known member
What is shit?
To me, a centrist, I look forward to Starmer winning.
Hopefully sensible, fully costed policies without any sleaze and self-interest.
Just needs to get us back in the SM and CU soonest, although the unions that all supported Brexit may stop that.
Comrade Sam
Comrade Sam
Well with tens of millions drowning in poverty and the environment going to hell in a hand basket, billionaires living tax free whilst inflation destroys wages, the utilities literally stealing from everyone and arms sales at record highs, public services on the point of collapse and the most vulnerable in society being either victimised or abandoned - let's hope Starmer gives us well costed policies and doesn't touch the wealth of Britain's elite. Does none of the above impact on your lives or imaginations?
Weststander
Well-known member
There’s a nsc tradition of virtual watching GE coverage together, with details on snacks bought, @Bozza is a bad influence on the night
Weststander
Well-known member
Thinking about this today, I think half the Tory MP’s might try to oust Sunak. The move would be for a right wing candidate.
A complete waste of time imho. The country gets tired of administrations, administrations run out of steam, internal back stabbing often from ousted ministers. 1964, 1970, 1997, 2010. To me it’s a busted flush. Mortgage repayments and groceries inflation, the final killer blow.
For Labour they need to maximise their GE majority. By showing a vision and some detail supporting that, curtailing Rayner’s occasional bitchy comments (it’s unprofessional, middle England is the target vote), giving a credible alternative to the SNP to grab some seats there.
Good post.
Pavilionaire
Well-known member
- Jul 7, 2003
- 31,262
Well over 3 hours after the final whistle on voting tne vibes from the TV coverage are the Tories are going to lose all 3 seats. Significantly, it looks as though the Lib Dems are finally a proper political force again. Credit must go to Ed Davey's excellent leadership. He is an upgrade on both Farron and Swinson.
- Oct 17, 2008
- 14,488
More’s the pity. It’s eating into Labour’s vote. I will never vote Lib Dem again in my lifetime.
Weststander
Well-known member
Not according to highly respected Prof John Curtice tonight on BBC. Somerset & Frome is a classic west country Lib Dems by election win, but he said Ed Davey is making absolutely no progress on their long term 10% national share of polling. To summarise, Labour are taking all the ex Tory votes in the UK.
He doesn't want any votes from anyone who wants to join the EEA Single Market either.
Nearly
- Jan 18, 2009
- 4,885
He maybe an excellent leader of a political party but he’s a dunce in biology.
https://www.indy100.com/politics/ed-davey-transgender-penises-lbc