[Politics] Sir Keir Starmer’s route to Number 10

[beorhthelm]

Well over 3 hours after the final whistle on voting tne vibes from the TV coverage are the Tories are going to lose all 3 seats. Significantly, it looks as though the Lib Dems are finally a proper political force again. Credit must go to Ed Davey's excellent leadership. He is an upgrade on both Farron and Swinson.

one great win, cant see them a politcal force when coming 5th behind Reform and friends elsewhere.

 

[Stat Brother]

one great win, cant see them a politcal force when coming 5th behind Reform and friends elsewhere.

Shirley that's more to do with the electorate finally waking up to tactical voting.

With the Greens and Lib Dems pulling in nearly 5% of the Uxbridge vote the Tories were very lucky not to lose all 3.

But I do agree with your overarching point.

 

[Brovion]

Nothing for me beats the night of May 2, 97. I stayed up most of it watching plum after loathsome plum lose their seat, tittering. GF of the time (a tory) had long gone to bed.

If Labour do particularly well this may signal that the public is ready to embrace 'worthy but dull' again, with the present lot tainted by recent memories of the tumescence of Johnson and the disgrace of whatsername. Unless Sunak can distance himself from these people (who made him) he'll struggle.

And I say that as someone who thinks that Sunak sounds very plausible, almost Blair-like (very similar voice and intonation). I doubt he has the balls or vision to have his own Clause 4 moment, though. If he said 'f*** it, we need to be in the single market and to do something meaningful about immigration' Sunak would win, I suspect. Oh, the irony.

Oh yes. I can still remember that moment when Portillo lost Enfield Southgate (I think). A wave of fierce exultation swept over me. "Take that you bastard!" I shouted at the TV. It was a brilliant, brilliant night, as you said, nothing could beat it. And @Colonel Mustard's point is valid: it DID feel like a whole new dawn and a new type of politics. Ok it all went to shit in the end, but at the time .... well the Tories were finally beaten and I'd never felt so positive about Britain's future. (More fool me I guess).

Now? Well I just don't have anywhere like the same enthusiasm for Starmer. Obviously I hope Labour win, but anybody who is expecting a massive improvement in Britain's fortunes is going to be sadly disappointed I fear.

 

[Colonel Mustard]

Thinking about this today, I think half the Tory MP’s might try to oust Sunak. The move would be for a right wing candidate.

No chance of that happening. They’ve been ridiculed enough for their constant chopping and changing. Another one would be madness.

 

[Hotchilidog]

Oh yes. I can still remember that moment when Portillo lost Enfield Southgate (I think). A wave of fierce exultation swept over me. "Take that you bastard!" I shouted at the TV. It was a brilliant, brilliant night, as you said, nothing could beat it. And @Colonel Mustard's point is valid: it DID feel like a whole new dawn and a new type of politics. Ok it all went to shit in the end, but at the time .... well the Tories were finally beaten and I'd never felt so positive about Britain's future. (More fool me I guess).

Now? Well I just don't have anywhere like the same enthusiasm for Starmer. Obviously I hope Labour win, but anybody who is expecting a massive improvement in Britain's fortunes is going to be sadly disappointed I fear.

My sentiments exactly. That said if Patel, Braverman or Rees-Mogg are amongst the casualties on election night I will, however briefly, be doing my nut. Not enthused by Starmer at all but there could still be plenty to celebrate throughout the night.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Oh yes. I can still remember that moment when Portillo lost Enfield Southgate (I think). A wave of fierce exultation swept over me. "Take that you bastard!" I shouted at the TV. It was a brilliant, brilliant night, as you said, nothing could beat it. And @Colonel Mustard's point is valid: it DID feel like a whole new dawn and a new type of politics. Ok it all went to shit in the end, but at the time .... well the Tories were finally beaten and I'd never felt so positive about Britain's future. (More fool me I guess).

Now? Well I just don't have anywhere like the same enthusiasm for Starmer. Obviously I hope Labour win, but anybody who is expecting a massive improvement in Britain's fortunes is going to be sadly disappointed I fear.

Don't underestimate TB. When he got in the likes of Das Reich were the norm. Society changed hugely, and and he was a leader who nudged the tiller. I still look back on the first 8 years fondly.

 

[Pavilionaire]

Not according to highly respected Prof John Curtice tonight on BBC. Somerset & Frome is a classic west country Lib Dems by election win, but he said Ed Davey is making absolutely no progress on their long term 10% national share of polling. To summarise, Labour are taking all the ex Tory votes in the UK.

It's not as simple as that though. The Lib Dems could continue to poll 10% nationally but quadruple their seats numbers if - as is happening more frequently - people vote tactically. And if the Lib Dems take 50 seats then that could be the difference between a Labour majority and a hung parliament.

I'm a Lib Dem supporter but would have had no hesitation in voting Labour yesterday if I lived in Uxbridge / South Ruislip.

 

[Pavilionaire]

More’s the pity. It’s eating into Labour’s vote. I will never vote Lib Dem again in my lifetime.

What, even if voting tactically for them deprives the Tories of another seat?

I hate Palace but was cheering them on vs Cardiff in 2019 when we were staring relegation in the face.

 

[Weststander]

It's not as simple as that though. The Lib Dems could continue to poll 10% nationally but quadruple their seats numbers if - as is happening more frequently - people vote tactically. And if the Lib Dems take 50 seats then that could be the difference between a Labour majority and a hung parliament.

I'm a Lib Dem supporter but would have had no hesitation in voting Labour yesterday if I lived in Uxbridge / South Ruislip.

Isn't tactical voting semi abandoned at GE's?

In 2015 and 2019 a stack of left wing ncs'ers licked their lips for months on end on how Lewes and Hastings were certain losses for the Tories due to tactical voting from the imaginary Progressive Alliance. Wrong.

I do know what you mean though. The LibDems often do well in the west country and SW London at GE's.

 

[warmleyseagull]

Presumably his route no longer goes through a ULEZ.

 

[El Presidente]

How low can they go? Expect to find out.

 

[Weststander]

Radio 5Live call in, questions to KS, on now.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Radio 5Live call in, questions to KS, on now.

Calm and dull. I like it.

He's also been to Maggie Thatcher's voice coach by the sound of it. Drop it half an octave to avoid sounding shrill.

 

[Weststander]

Calm and dull. I like it.

He's also been to Maggie Thatcher's voice coach by the sound of it. Drop it half an octave to avoid sounding shrill.

NC/texters trying to entrap him on transgender issues. Crikey that's a minefield.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Sadly Kier is not prepared to acknowledge the difference between gender and biological sex. However he's probably wise to duck this given that half the audience don't understand the difference.

 

[deletebeepbeepbeep]

Sadly Kier is not prepared to acknowledge the difference between gender and biological sex. However he's probably wise to duck this given that half the audience don't understand the difference.

Our current and future PM less progressive than a sitting US president in this respect. How did we get here.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

NC/texters trying to entrap him on transgender issues. Crikey that's a minefield.

Yep. David Colquhoun's blog is quite good on this. Shall we discuss? Here is my take. The biological (or medical as Starmer alluded) definition is clear. Biological sex is determined by the X an Y chromosomes. And that includes the rare genetic 'abnormalities' such as extra Y chromosomes. Most people fall into the male or female categories. Gender, on the other hand is part of the indentity profile of an individual. It is normally no more a choice than sexuality (sexual orientation) is a choice. That includes a proportion of people who don't have a particularly strong gender identity (which may map to the existence of not having a strong sexual orientation).

I suspect this is sufficient for most well-balanced people who have got over any 1970s-style homophobia.

It is legitimate, however, to be concerned about someone wearing a dress, but with a cock and balls under it, demanding to swan about in the ladies toilets. I would have thought that denying people with a penis access to women's toilets, communal showers and other places where ostensibly single-sex excretion or nudity are possible, should be sufficient.

Some may say whatabout a biologically female person who identifies as a man? What changing room should they be using at a gym or swimming pool? I suspect that if they retain the female external secondary sexual characteristics (i.e., tits) then they ought to be using the women's facilities.

Here it does get a bit nuanced. However the main issue of concern, i.e. a great big hairy bloke in a dress, swinging his cock about in front of women and girls, for nefarious purposes (like, I suspect, that rapist in the Scottish jail) outght to be easy to deal with. People who have a male biological sex should not have a legal right to have access to all the facilities available to women of a female biological sex. How they dress, or identify is irrelevant. After a surgical gender change (note, this is not a sex change) then maybe we can think again.

Lights blue touch paper then legs it for a bit.....

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Isn't tactical voting semi abandoned at GE's?

In 2015 and 2019 a stack of left wing ncs'ers licked their lips for months on end on how Lewes and Hastings were certain losses for the Tories due to tactical voting from the imaginary Progressive Alliance. Wrong.

I do know what you mean though. The LibDems often do well in the west country and SW London at GE's.

In the 2015 election, Lewes got rid of Norman Baker (LD) who had worked as a minister with the Tories. Caulfield got a 7K majority.
In 2019, her majority was reduced to 2K. If the Green candidate had stood down, the LD may well have taken the seat.

 

[beorhthelm]

Sadly Kier is not prepared to acknowledge the difference between gender and biological sex. However he's probably wise to duck this given that half the audience don't understand the difference.

many of the protagonists in the debate mix the differences to suit their case or because it's fraught with landmines.

much of the argument is around where gender assignment should be treated as if it's a change of sex. to some, biological males who identify as female absolutly must be allowed into female/women designated spaces. its their right as a woman. there is a lot less controversy around women switching to men, because generally men care less that a woman might be in their designated space. here's one to ponder, are genitalia known as gender organs or sex organs? we call them latter until someone wants to change them, then call it's gender reassignment.

 

[stewart12]

Calm and dull. I like it.

He's also been to Maggie Thatcher's voice coach by the sound of it. Drop it half an octave to avoid sounding shrill.

he absolutely has to address his voice. It shouldn't be an issue but unfortunately it is in politics