[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Triggaaar]

Can they not be read as a bungled attempt at saying Ukraine should have made a deal before Russia invaded?

And even if it could, what does that mean? There was no deal to be made before Russia invaded. Russia said 'everything's fine, we're not invading'. So with Russia promising not to invade, you think Ukraine should have said 'Well we know you're not invading, but how about we give you a chunk of our country anyway?'

 

[GoldstoneVintage]

Don't know if anyone else uses Substack, but I have found it an invaluable source of information and expertise. Here's an example: https://open.substack.com/pub/phill...?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=4shdhp

 

[cunning fergus]

I asked the question how the UK could afford to pay for everything WITHOUT a Customs Union with the EU, and I see you haven't come up with any alternative as to how the UK foots the bill

I maintain that if we have negligible growth but now have to move from 2.3% to - probably - twice that with US an unreliable ally - then the only way we can increase our GDP relatively quickly is a Customs Union. Remember, we haven't yet heard about the tariffs Trump has in store for us that will hit our exports and our economy.

You talk about EU leaders that are about to lose power but that happens all the time as left and right come and go, and I don't see how acquiescing to Russia is an option for the EU because first Ukraine will go, then the Baltic states, Moldova, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and the EU as we know it will cease to exist.

Yet Russia's economy is fragile and the war is sucking up manpower, leaving their economy short at home. Inflation is at 10%, interest rates are 21% so nobody can afford to borrow, so there is no private sector investment and ordinary people are feeling it domestically.

If Trump were so minded, the USA and Saudi could up oil production and use this and sanctions to reduce demand for Russian oil, which would be a huge problem for Putin. The combined economies of the NATO countries blow Russia's out of the water, Russia's economy is a fraction of China's.

The one point I agree with you on is that both the UK and the EU countries - with the exception of Poland - have been complacent militarily, but that doesn't mean that they are "nowhere".

1) I would wager you would turbo charge the British economy by significantly reducing energy costs. Industrial energy costs here are higher than our European peers, domestically we are top 5. We know why costs here are high, so sorting that out should be priority No1.

2) Spending cuts are going to be needed to redirect money to defence which means ending all foreign aid, asylum costs etc. pdq.

There are plenty of others cuts that can be made, as Trump is proving in the US. As of a recent UGov poll (17/2) only 6% supported increase in taxes to pay for defence.

3) Rather than rejoin the EU, the other European countries in the EU need to decide if the EU can continue as is, the organisational costs and current MO is not going to work on multiple levels and especially with a US moving to a tariff free model on importing/exporting goods.

Given the threat from Russia is existential, maybe they need to consider whether NATO member countries with 5% of GDP can trade freely.

If Starmer had balls he would insist on it.

 

[Eric the meek]

Don't know if anyone else uses Substack, but I have found it an invaluable source of information and expertise. Here's an example: https://open.substack.com/pub/phill...?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=4shdhp

Excellent article.

I had forgotten about Phillips O'Brien - we should reference him more on here.

 

[GoldstoneVintage]

Sadly, I think Jake Broe was wrong about Kellog. He has been saying the same pro Kremlin bollocks as his boss. We need to stop clutching at (American) straws as they are now aligned with Putin.

Ukraine is what stands between us and the loss of democracy in all of Europe so we better figure out a way to help them win.

 

[GoldstoneVintage]

Excellent article.

I had forgotten about Phillips O'Brien - we should reference him more on here.

Yes! I stumbled upon him again having previously read his posts on Twitter, before I left the platform. He really knows his stuff.

 

[cunning fergus]

You're reading too much into it, it's just talks about a possible peacekeeping force, and that's not a prospect while the war continues.




Spoken like a true Russian shill

Starmer raised it without prompting so if you’re right he’s a f@cking imbecile for running his mouth off without checking out his thinking with the French and Germans.

I care no more for the Russians than I do most other foreign people. If I'm a shill its for the long suffering British taxpayer having another burden placed on their shoulders by politicians and an establishment in thrall to foreign calamities.

When Labour came to power, according to them, it was clear that the economy was shot to pieces.

That means we may have to sit shit like Ukraine out. We can’t afford to help.

 

[GoldstoneVintage]

1) I would wager you would turbo charge the British economy by significantly reducing energy costs. Industrial energy costs here are higher than our European peers, domestically we are top 5. We know why costs here are high, so sorting that out should be priority No1.

2) Spending cuts are going to be needed to redirect money to defence which means ending all foreign aid, asylum costs etc. pdq.

There are plenty of others cuts that can be made, as Trump is proving in the US. As of a recent UGov poll (17/2) only 6% supported increase in taxes to pay for defence.

3) Rather than rejoin the EU, the other European countries in the EU need to decide if the EU can continue as is, the organisational costs and current MO is not going to work on multiple levels and especially with a US moving to a tariff free model on importing/exporting goods.

Given the threat from Russia is existential, maybe they need to consider whether NATO member countries with 5% of GDP can trade freely.

If Starmer had balls he would insist on it.

Nationalisation then? That's why European energy is cheaper. Take out the greedy shareholders. I quite agree.

 

[Home and Away]

 

[Triggaaar]

3) Rather than rejoin the EU, the other European countries in the EU need to decide if the EU can continue as is, the organisational costs and current MO is not going to work on multiple levels and especially with a US moving to a tariff free model on importing/exporting goods.

What tariff free model? Trump wants more tariffs. Tariff is his favourite word.

 

[WATFORD zero]

1) I would wager you would turbo charge the British economy by significantly reducing energy costs. Industrial energy costs here are higher than our European peers, domestically we are top 5. We know why costs here are high, so sorting that out should be priority No1.

2) Spending cuts are going to be needed to redirect money to defence which means ending all foreign aid, asylum costs etc. pdq.

There are plenty of others cuts that can be made, as Trump is proving in the US. As of a recent UGov poll (17/2) only 6% supported increase in taxes to pay for defence.

3) Rather than rejoin the EU, the other European countries in the EU need to decide if the EU can continue as is, the organisational costs and current MO is not going to work on multiple levels and especially with a US moving to a tariff free model on importing/exporting goods.

Given the threat from Russia is existential, maybe they need to consider whether NATO member countries with 5% of GDP can trade freely.

If Starmer had balls he would insist on it.

Are your latest ideas on turbo charging the British Economy instead of, or alongside your last one from a few weeks back ?

In macro trade terms we are small beer to the US, it’s the top tier exporters that Trump will target with tariffs, and that means China and Germany, but by extension that means the EU.

Here is the sweet spot for the U.K. to exploit, we keep far enough from the EU that we can secure a discrete US/U.K. trade agreement, all the indicators are that one will be on offer.

I don’t doubt there will elements of that which will make some shit the bed however that’s life, overall a free trade agreement with the US would be positive, not least a US performing well economically.

 

[Triggaaar]

Starmer raised it without prompting

Can you provide proof of that?

so if you’re right he’s a f@cking imbecile for running his mouth off without checking out his thinking with the French and Germans.

The French also said they'd be willing to send troops, so what on earth are you talking about?

I care no more for the Russians than I do most other foreign people. If I'm a shill its for the long suffering British taxpayer

So the Russians aren't even having to pay you to preach their propaganda? You're missing a trick there.

That means we may have to sit shit like Ukraine out. We can’t afford to help.

We can't afford for Ukraine to lose. You'd have a lot more than some taxes to worry about then.

 

[beorhthelm]

Yes, but there are several interpretations. Whether they matter depends on which one you favour.

1. He meant it exactly as it was delivered.
2. He meant it as you have described.
3. He's angry at Zelensky rejecting his first offer ('which was a very fair offer, a beautiful offer, let me tell you').
4. He's bullying Zelensky so that he accepts Trump's next and final offer.
5. It's all a masquerade. Which Zelensky may or may not be in on. The problem I have is the B-52s. Why are they here?

you missed being frustrated that Putin isn't showing any leeway, so he cant deliver on promise, looks for blame.

 

[peterward]

Don't know if anyone else uses Substack, but I have found it an invaluable source of information and expertise. Here's an example: https://open.substack.com/pub/phill...?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=4shdhp

Excellent article.

I had forgotten about Phillips O'Brien - we should reference him more on here.

What a brilliant and illuminating article by Phillips, its tragic that its so accurate and the entire world plus the long suffering people of Ukraine are beholden to a total buffoon, whose being played like a fiddle by a genocidal fascist.

It looks grim because it is grim. and maybe i'm naive, but its not over yet.

Theres a clear global alingnment occuring between neo fascist governments like Putins and Trumps and national parties like front National, Afd. But that doesnt mean Europe or normal liberal democraices, the like of which America was 6 weeks ago, need to simply be blown along or bow the knee to Trumps new world order.

Their is a paradigm shift happening right now, and for all intents and purposes the UN is already defunct, maybe the transatlantic alliance will go the same way, at least temporaily. This really is the moment, unlike any previous in our lifetimes, for all Western democracies that were allied with the US weeks ago, to come out against them whilst Trump is being so stupid and self serving.

Europe, Canada, Australia, NZ, Japan. All should reject this alignment with a genocidal fasisct and attempts to normalise an indicted war criminal who has mass murdered 100'000s of innocents, his own people and destroyed a peaceful nation.

Europe needs to quickly wake up, smell the coffee and come out united against Trumps bromance with Putin or any attempts to throw Ukraine under the bus.

We dont have to accept this, Europe is strong enough, is there the strength of will and character to stand up to Trump?

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

1) I would wager you would turbo charge the British economy by significantly reducing energy costs. Industrial energy costs here are higher than our European peers, domestically we are top 5. We know why costs here are high, so sorting that out should be priority No1.

2) Spending cuts are going to be needed to redirect money to defence which means ending all foreign aid, asylum costs etc. pdq.

There are plenty of others cuts that can be made, as Trump is proving in the US. As of a recent UGov poll (17/2) only 6% supported increase in taxes to pay for defence.

3) Rather than rejoin the EU, the other European countries in the EU need to decide if the EU can continue as is, the organisational costs and current MO is not going to work on multiple levels and especially with a US moving to a tariff free model on importing/exporting goods.

Given the threat from Russia is existential, maybe they need to consider whether NATO member countries with 5% of GDP can trade freely.

If Starmer had balls he would insist on it.

Energy costs are high because of businesses screwing over the country.

Trump is not tariff free. The one tool used to counter this is creating a trading block approach (EU anyone?)

The rest makes even less sense. Where do you get this bollocks from? Maybe thicker tinfoil?

 

[Eric the meek]

Russia suddenly appears emboldened and strengthened for some reason:

Attention @GoldstoneVintage and @peterward - more evidence of alignment between Putin and Trump, this time on Canada.

 

[raymondo]

Sadly, I think Jake Broe was wrong about Kellog. He has been saying the same pro Kremlin bollocks as his boss. We need to stop clutching at (American) straws as they are now aligned with Putin.

Ukraine is what stands between us and the loss of democracy in all of Europe so we better figure out a way to help them win.

I think you're right. Kellogg seemed pro Ukraine at first, I think Trump told him no, and now he's a patsie messenger

 

[raymondo]

What a brilliant and illuminating article by Phillips, its tragic that its so accurate and the entire world plus the long suffering people of Ukraine are beholden to a total buffoon, whose being played like a fiddle by a genocidal fascist.

It looks grim because it is grim. and maybe i'm naive, but its not over yet.

Theres a clear global alingnment occuring between neo fascist governments like Putins and Trumps and national parties like front National, Afd. But that doesnt mean Europe or normal liberal democraices, the like of which America was 6 weeks ago, need to simply be blown along or bow the knee to Trumps new world order.

Their is a paradigm shift happening right now, and for all intents and purposes the UN is already defunct, maybe the transatlantic alliance will go the same way, at least temporaily, so this really is the moment, unlike any previous in our lifetimes, for all Western democracies that were allied with the US weeks ago, to come out against them whilt Trump is being so stupid and self serving.

That's Europe, Canada, Australia, NZ, Japan. All should reject this alignment with a genocidal fasisct and trying to normalise and indicted war criminal who has mass murdered 100'000s of innocents, his own people and destroyed a peaceful nation.

Europe needs to quickly wake up, smell the coffee and come out united against Trumps bromance with Putin or any attempts to throw Ukraine under the bus.

We dont have to accept this, Europe is strong enough, is there the strength of will and character to stand up to Trump?

The UN and NATO are defunct in my opinion too.
It's either fight Russia in Ukraine, or fight them in eu countries in 12 months.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

The UN and NATO are defunct in my opinion too.
It's either fight Russia in Ukraine, or fight them in eu countries in 12 months.

Russia don’t have the finance, infrastructure, equipment or manpower to beat Ukraine so not sure having a scrap with someone else is an option.
This is about supporting Ukraine against Putin.

 

[Ali_rrr]

Can you provide proof of that?





The French also said they'd be willing to send troops, so what on earth are you talking about?





So the Russians aren't even having to pay you to preach their propaganda? You're missing a trick there.




We can't afford for Ukraine to lose. You'd have a lot more than some taxes to worry about then.

Almost not even worth engaging with him. There's a reason why almost every single European government are throwing billions to Ukraine, they know what will come next if they lose.