[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[jcdenton08]

None of us can see into the future. We can only guess.

Remember we are in Nato. Any strike on a Nato country will elicit a commensurate response. That is the deterrent.

Will it work with Putin ? Well it has so far. So, probably, yes. And he now knows, if he didn't already, that his air defences will not stop modern western missiles.

There is no guarantee though. That's the nature of it.

Isn’t Nato basically completely untested on such a scale though? I mean, to my knowledge NATO has a never had to take such action

 

[Commander]

Again who knows for sure, but many have begged to differ.

It wouldn't cause end of war from Ukraine side as they're fighting for very right to exist. Just yesterday they said that even if they did get eventually over run, they'd go into hills with guns and bombs to continue guerilla war like Taliban did in Afghanistan.

Russia wouldn't be able to capitalise if it did it on front lines, and just wiping out a town or city behind front lines, mass murdering civillians won't make Kyiv hand over rest of nation.

It would also likely illicit a western response and alienate Russia from those it currently counts as Allies, and that includes China, who it is totally reliable on and have warned against any such use.

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Petraeus: US would destroy Russia’s troops if Putin uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine

Former CIA director and retired army general says Moscow’s leader is ‘desperate’ and ‘battlefield reality he faces is irreversible’

www.theguardian.com

I'm sure the Japanese would have said the same in 1945 before the bombs. But if Russia did take that route and threatened more and more until Ukraine conceded, there would be an enormous movement in the country for them to surrender. Plenty of people would rather live under Russian rule than in a radioactive wasteground with all their friends and families either dead or dying of cancer. As awful as it is to say it. I'm sure some would head to the hills and fight a guerrilla war, but I would imagine the main war would be over.

I think Putin would genuinely consider that option if it wasn't for NATO, and wasn't for the fact that he'd immediately lose his major allies. Hopefully those two things will keep him from having it as a serious consideration.

 

[Eric the meek]

Isn’t Nato basically completely untested on such a scale though? I mean, to my knowledge NATO has a never had to take such action

But isn't it a good thing that it is completely untested on such a scale? That means that the Nato collective deterrent has worked in the past. It has done its job.
I'm sure Nato conducts exercises and simulations anyway.

 

[peterward]

Good article of the present inflection point by Anne Applebaum.

Totally agree also, there is no stalemate/peace option. Putin eventually wins or he loses and nothing in between.

Putin Isn’t Fighting for Land in Ukraine

And Biden has mere weeks to give the Ukrainians the resources they need to fight.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[Commander]

Good article of the present inflection point by Anne Applebaum.

Totally agree also, there is no stalemate/peace option. Putin eventually wins or he loses and nothing in between.

Putin Isn’t Fighting for Land in Ukraine

And Biden has mere weeks to give the Ukrainians the resources they need to fight.

www.theatlantic.com

Good article, thanks for posting.

Do you think there is genuinely no option for ‘Get him to the point where he has to withdraw but still be able to claim victory at home’? Unless there’s going to be regime change in Russia (which could mean something worse) then that would seem like a fairly palatable outcome to me, especially if it means a massively battered Russian military and with Putin knowing deep down that he lost.

 

[Commander]

Isn’t Nato basically completely untested on such a scale though? I mean, to my knowledge NATO has a never had to take such action

I guess that means it works. If it was repeatedly tested, then the deterrent wouldn’t have worked.

 

[The Clamp]

Show weakness; do nothing as he masses troops on Ukraine border - he claims he is not going to attack. He attacks.

Show strength; fire missiles into Russia - he makes threats. Doesn’t do anything.

Putin probes for weakness. Where he finds it, he strikes.

Where he finds strength, he shrinks.

He’s an archetypal bully.

Can we please now learn this lesson about Putin ??

 

[jcdenton08]

Show weakness; do nothing as he masses troops on Ukraine border - he claims he is not going to attack. He attacks.

Show strength; fire missiles into Russia - he makes threats. Doesn’t do anything.

Putin probes for weakness. Where he finds it, he strikes.

Where he finds strength, he shrinks.

He’s an archetypal bully.

Can we please now learn this lesson about Putin ??

I hope you’re right.

 

[GoldstoneVintage]

It’s total and utter madness that a half dozen human cockroaches hold the future of humanity in their hands whilst hiding in their grubby lairs. You’d like to think that the other 7,999,999,994 people on the planet would make their voices heard.

I was about to post something very similar. The vast majority of people in the world are decent, but a high proportion of world leaders are total b*stards.

 

[The Clamp]

I hope you’re right.

Well, yes. There’s always an element of doubt.

But if there’s one thing history teaches us; you don’t defeat bully’s by cowering.

If he, as I suspect, does nothing overtly to retaliate then we use his own tactics against him; if he shows weakness, unleash Hell.


When you have them against the ropes, ignore the referee and keep hammering the ****.

 

[Triggaaar]

When Putin threatens the nuclear option I think he is talking about using a tactical nuclear weapon on the battlefield in Ukraine. It would break Ukrainian resistance immediately, and probably end that war, just like they did in Japan.

It's not the same as Japan. Japan attacked the US, the US didn't want to take over Japan, they just wanted to defeat them militarily, and no one could stop the US. Putin can be stopped.

 

[The Clamp]

Putin won’t go nuclear.

I’m willing to say the same thing again on here in year’s time.

If I can get broadband in my subterranean bunker.

 

[happypig]

Is anyone else getting genuinely worried about nuclear Armageddon? Because I am, a bit. I know Putin has been threatening this forever, but it’s never felt this real. British missiles being used to attack Russia is scary.

All kinds of scenarios playing through my mind, we’re a much softer target than the US, would they back us up if we suffered a direct nuclear hit? What about the Europe we shunned? Knowing the state of Trident with most of them out of commission all the time, would we even have the ability to respond in a timely fashion?

Why do Russia have to be such ****s?

Our nuclear deterrent is having one Vanguard class submarine on constant patrol. It carries 24 Trident II missiles, each one having up to 12 independent warheads (each one up to 100 kilotons. That's potentially 288 targets; even if only a quarter get through Russia's defences, it lays waste to several dozen cities.
That's not soft and, for all his bluster and bravado, Putin knows that.

 

[Eric the meek]

The ruble continues to drift down - 1 USD = 100.90 rubles.

A big part of this war is being fought off the battlefield.

Russian Ruble - Quote - Chart - Historical Data - News

The USDRUB increased 0.3024 or 0.30% to 100.9005 on Thursday November 21 from 100.5981 in the previous trading session. Russian Ruble - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on November of 2024.

tradingeconomics.com

 

[peterward]

Good article, thanks for posting.

Do you think there is genuinely no option for ‘Get him to the point where he has to withdraw but still be able to claim victory at home’? Unless there’s going to be regime change in Russia (which could mean something worse) then that would seem like a fairly palatable outcome to me, especially if it means a massively battered Russian military and with Putin knowing deep down that he lost.

It's hard to tell imho.

The west could have easily armed Ukraine to win long ago, and I'd guess the reason they haven't and have tried to manage to a stalemate/negotiated settlement is for the reasons you suggest, the 'what next' vacuum of a politically defeated nuclear Russia and Putins demise?

As for the first point, Applebaum is right, this for Putin has always been about the total destruction of Ukraine/undermining west rules based order, hes a disciple of Ivan Ilyin, its not about Land, NATO or fantasy Nazis, so he will do everything to ensure he gets his objective, or sets conditions to rest, rearm and have another go later.

He's not interested in just keeping Donbass, he wants the lot, now or later and main reason why he's against Ukraine in NATO, is not because NATO is a threat to him, but to his imperial ambition to destroy Ukraine.

Losing is hugely perilous for him personally, and I reckon he's terrified of dying or losing power, he loves being the bully mafia boss, killing enemies and his life of luxury, but he's no jihadist and doesn't want to die himself.

Ultimately I think Putin wants to survive personally and by hook or by crook his survival instincts will play a big part. He will do whatever he can to do so, which he can't outside of power, he thinks now hes winning, or can in time, but if he ever thinks he's losing or about to lose/ economy totally collapse, then real politik and survival will kick in, he doesn't need to be given a face saving narrative, he'll fabricate one and retreat or seek negotiations.... "It was the whole of NATO against us".

I think it's imperative to push him to that point, give no lifelines or off ramps and then we'll find out the answer to your question!

else otherwise this will only end with him in Kyiv someday, with a nation of 50m in a prison camp, with all Ukraines huge natural resource, eyeing up Baltics and an even more dangerous and unstable Europe.

 

[Triggaaar]

Good article, thanks for posting.

Do you think there is genuinely no option for ‘Get him to the point where he has to withdraw but still be able to claim victory at home’?

He will always be able to do that because everything the Kremlin says is a lie anyway, so they can say what they like and repeat it on their 'news' channels.

 

[peterward]

Interesting section on CNN about the Russian missile attack on Dnipro.

After first saying it was an ICBM (first ever firing of one in war) west is saying it was ballistic and not intercontinental.l and Ukraine also back tracking on ICBM

Then adding, that all of Russias ballistic missiles were meant to have been destroyed by a reciprocal treaty they signed with US to do so.

Surprise surprise Russia lies and breaks treaty?

 

[Eric the meek]

Mind the gap - the ruble is finding it difficult to even maintain parity with one US cent.

Next stop, the UK decimal ha'penny (which was withdrawn from circulation in 1984, when Gorbachev was president).

After that, it's the old imperial UK penny, then an old imperial UK ha'penny, then a farthing.

1.00 Russian Ruble = 0.0098929331 US Dollars

1 USD = 101.082 RUB

1 RUB to USD - Russian Rubles to US Dollars Exchange Rate

Get the latest 1 Russian Ruble to US Dollar rate for FREE with the original Universal Currency Converter. Set rate alerts for to and learn more about Russian Rubles and US Dollars from XE - the Currency Authority.

www.xe.com

 

[peterward]

Nice handy article from the Metro, how and what to do with an incoming Nuke.

Step-by-step guide to surviving a nuclear attack and what happens after

Ten minutes is all you would have.

metro.co.uk

 

[GT49er]

Is anyone else getting genuinely worried about nuclear Armageddon? Because I am, a bit. I know Putin has been threatening this forever, but it’s never felt this real. British missiles being used to attack Russia is scary.

All kinds of scenarios playing through my mind, we’re a much softer target than the US, would they back us up if we suffered a direct nuclear hit? What about the Europe we shunned? Knowing the state of Trident with most of them out of commission all the time, would we even have the ability to respond in a timely fashion?

Why do Russia have to be such ****s?

Sorry to break it to you, but this current crisis has nothing to do with the B word. We're still talking with, co-operating with, and standing with Europe in this dangerous situation.