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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)









raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,382
Wiltshire
This is what intrigues me. The Russian economy. Those figures - if true - give us a glimpse into how the Russian economy is doing. 9.4% inflation, if true. 19% interest rates. Low take up of those bonds. That's a one-way ticket to bankruptcy, however long it may take.

But he's drafting the budget for the next three years, as if it isn't happening.
Yep, and he's ramping up the attacks in some areas:
1. Russia finally took the Vuhledar settlement today, after trying for two years. Russia lost at least 800 vehicles and uncounted men to do this. Ukraine retreated before being surrounded 👍. 800 vehicles plus loads of troops, to get one small settlement.
2. Zap is being hit heavily daily now, glide bombs I believe (according to friends). That hasn't happened for a while.
3. Secret Squirrel forecasts heavy ground attacks from Russia across much of the front line during the next 30-40 days ... before winter rains start.

It feels like Putin is ramping up everything, including his war budget, in his hope of a Trump victory.
 


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,134
Yep, and he's ramping up the attacks in some areas:
1. Russia finally took the Vuhledar settlement today, after trying for two years. Russia lost at least 800 vehicles and uncounted men to do this. Ukraine retreated before being surrounded 👍. 800 vehicles plus loads of troops, to get one small settlement.
2. Zap is being hit heavily daily now, glide bombs I believe (according to friends). That hasn't happened for a while.
3. Secret Squirrel forecasts heavy ground attacks from Russia across much of the front line during the next 30-40 days ... before winter rains start.

It feels like Putin is ramping up everything, including his war budget, in his hope of a Trump victory.

He recently confirmed that his original objectives (to de-nazify and de-militarise Ukraine) would be achieved. To try and achieve it, he is heavily increasing his defence spending, including a new mass mobilisation. It remains to be seen whether he can afford it, or has some plan to replenish the coffers to afford it in the longer term.

The draft increase in defence spending is on the one hand, scary, but on the other hand, a sign that he hasn't done very well so far. It's so difficult to see past all the horror, but every time he bombs a market, or a hospital or residential building, there is the quiet realisation that these are not valid military targets which will degrade Ukraine's ability to defend itself.

Ukraine will keep going. They have far too much to lose. They recently blew up the 'indestructible' arms depot at Toropets. Russia has built a second structure alongside the Kerch bridge. They are worried. Solovyev has asked 'What if they strike the Kremlin again?'. They know what's coming.
 


raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,382
Wiltshire
He recently confirmed that his original objectives (to de-nazify and de-militarise Ukraine) would be achieved. To try and achieve it, he is heavily increasing his defence spending, including a new mass mobilisation. It remains to be seen whether he can afford it, or has some plan to replenish the coffers to afford it in the longer term.

The draft increase in defence spending is on the one hand, scary, but on the other hand, a sign that he hasn't done very well so far. It's so difficult to see past all the horror, but every time he bombs a market, or a hospital or residential building, there is the quiet realisation that these are not valid military targets which will degrade Ukraine's ability to defend itself.

Ukraine will keep going. They have far too much to lose. They recently blew up the 'indestructible' arms depot at Toropets. Russia has built a second structure alongside the Kerch bridge. They are worried. Solovyev has asked 'What if they strike the Kremlin again?'. They know what's coming.
Yes. That 'attack' on the Kremlin was just a firework compared to what Ukraine could do now (with improved drones) if it chose to.

The new mobilisation is another 133,000 I think, 18-27 year olds. As Joe Blogs says, the remaining men in that age category will be extremely worried, and men in the 28-35 age band are starting to worry. Most of the mobilised men will be taken out of employment in the economy.

I agree that the attacks on non-military targets do not degrade Ukraine's defence ability. It does of course degrade morale in some citizens in the affected areas ( I know you know that).
 












Sirnormangall

Well-known member
Sep 21, 2017
3,184
According to Steve Rosenberg, Russian newspapers have reported on the Kremlin’s draft budget for next year which indicates defence expenditure rising from 28% to 32% (of total expenditure). That seems an unbelievable number…..and given the source it possibly is!
 


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,134
According to Steve Rosenberg, Russian newspapers have reported on the Kremlin’s draft budget for next year which indicates defence expenditure rising from 28% to 32% (of total expenditure). That seems an unbelievable number…..and given the source it possibly is!
Well, indeed. A few reports suggest 'unease' in Moscow over this news.

(Of course, unease in Putin's regime is equivalent to spitting feathers everywhere else. It's worth keeping an eye on, but presumably we won't see the effect until it is obvious).
 










Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,134
But but but, Daddy Putin promised they’d take Kyiv within 3 days…
He's not a good loser is he?

Now the demographic catastrophe that he has presided over for a generation, will cause a dearth of future warriors. His solution: ban birth control for those he thinks should be providing Russia with those warriors. It's like something out of some far-fetched science-fiction movie. Dystopian doesn't begin to describe it.

Just a thought - an alternative solution might be to not aim for decades of confrontation with the West. Confrontation isn't obligatory.
 






Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,134
The incident at Novosibirsk is interesting - it’s miles to the east, nearer to Mongolia than Moscow. Either Ukraine has a long reach or Putin has other internal enemies to keep him busy (hopefully both).
Yes, but you could say the same for the last bavovna, at Khabarovsk, (the last one which didn't render), which is further east than Vladivostok !

It makes you really wonder if Russia has a future, even if by some miracle, it 'wins' the war.
 




essbee1

Well-known member
Jun 25, 2014
4,733
Yes, but you could say the same for the last bavovna, at Khabarovsk, (the last one which didn't render), which is further east than Vladivostok !

It makes you really wonder if Russia has a future, even if by some miracle, it 'wins' the war.
I think sooner, rather than later, something will cause the house of cards to tumble. I don't believe that
Putin can carry on like this without something happening to him.
 






raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,382
Wiltshire
'We have decades of confrontation with the West ahead of us.'


Putin (the expert child psychologist...) doesn't seem to realise that the main "... depravity that hinders birth rates" is Russia's own.
He's also increasingly sending the youngest males to the front line to die.

Sadly, he's not looking unhealthy enough for my liking.
 


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