[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Triggaaar]

It's certainly not just Putin's war ...

Remember these people are being lied to constantly. Many of them believe the lie that their people were suffering in Ukraine, and they just had an operation to help free them - only targeting Ukrainian Nazis, and not harming civilians. But the evil West decided to fight Russia, while Russia just wants peace.

Of course it takes a closed mind and some mental gymnastics to go along with the Russian propaganda, but people are capable of that, rather than accepting the truth that their country is rotten to the core.

That's not to say there aren't plenty of people in Russia who know they're in the wrong, and don't care. But are lot of them believe the lies.

 

[Eric the meek]

Sorry to digress, but we have more ammo blown up;

 

[GT49er]

Remember these people are being lied to constantly. Many of them believe the lie that their people were suffering in Ukraine, and they just had an operation to help free them - only targeting Ukrainian Nazis, and not harming civilians. But the evil West decided to fight Russia, while Russia just wants peace.

Of course it takes a closed mind and some mental gymnastics to go along with the Russian propaganda, but people are capable of that, rather than accepting the truth that their country is rotten to the core.

That's not to say there aren't plenty of people in Russia who know they're in the wrong, and don't care. But are lot of them believe the lies.

There are also probably plenty, certainly among the more intelligent Russians, who know they're in the wrong, and do care. But best not mention it to anyone!

 

[Eric the meek]

Another one.

Barnaul is way out to the east, two thirds of the way from Moscow to Lake Baikal. I remember it for having military/space connections.

 

[Eric the meek]

There are also probably plenty, certainly among the more intelligent Russians, who know they're in the wrong, and do care. But best not mention it to anyone!

And any number of variations thereof. Pro-Putin, anti-Putin, do care but afraid, don't care but afraid, you name it.

If/when Putin falls, and the reins of control start to relax, it will be compulsive viewing as news of the real world begins to filter through Russia, with people reacting in different ways - disbelief, distrust, denial, acceptance etc.

 

[raymondo]

Remember these people are being lied to constantly. Many of them believe the lie that their people were suffering in Ukraine, and they just had an operation to help free them - only targeting Ukrainian Nazis, and not harming civilians. But the evil West decided to fight Russia, while Russia just wants peace.

Of course it takes a closed mind and some mental gymnastics to go along with the Russian propaganda, but people are capable of that, rather than accepting the truth that their country is rotten to the core.

That's not to say there aren't plenty of people in Russia who know they're in the wrong, and don't care. But are lot of them believe the lies.

Yes, that's all true sadly.

I think the main suffering that ethnic Russians were experiencing in the Donbas was the road signs being changed from dual language to Ukrainian only (IIRC).

 

[raymondo]

And any number of variations thereof. Pro-Putin, anti-Putin, do care but afraid, don't care but afraid, you name it.

If/when Putin falls, and the reins of control start to relax, it will be compulsive viewing as news of the real world begins to filter through Russia, with people reacting in different ways - disbelief, distrust, denial, acceptance etc.

Mainly the 'd's for a long time, depending the generation.
And that's if the reins of control do relax .

 

[raymondo]

Sorry to digress, but we have more ammo blown up;

Ukraine must be churning out drone production at an excellent rate.

Russia hit Zaporizhzhia a few nights ago with a missile and drone attack. There were two hits on the Motorsich factory there, possibly one of the few sites of centralised drone production.

 

[raymondo]

Another one.

Barnaul is way out to the east, two thirds of the way from Moscow to Lake Baikal. I remember it for having military/space connections.

I wonder what the rate of random, accidental fires was in Russia before the war.
No idea, don't care, hope it was a drone.

 

[Eric the meek]

Mainly the 'd's for a long time, depending the generation.
And that's if the reins of control do relax .

Yes, I'm not making any predictions there. Anything could happen, or not happen. And probably will. Or not !

But one thing that might happen, is mixed messages, as the reins are passed over from one supreme commander in chief to another.....

No predictions, but do you detect a difference with Solovyev?

Remember how he proposed Putin's resignation on 24/9 (which we interpreted in several ways)?

Here he is, getting confused with Tigran Keosayan (the husband of Margarita Pracatan Simonyan):
It pre-dates the first video in which he mentions Putin's resignation:

 

[raymondo]

Yes, I'm not making any predictions there. Anything could happen, or not happen. And probably will. Or not !

But one thing that might happen, is mixed messages, as the reins are passed over from one supreme commander in chief to another.....

No predictions, but do you detect a difference with Solovyev?

Remember how he proposed Putin's resignation on 24/9 (which we interpreted in several ways)?

Here he is, getting confused with Tigran Keosayan (the husband of Margarita Pracatan Simonyan):
It pre-dates the first video in which he mentions Putin's resignation:

Very confusing discussion! Two egos that should have had that discussion over a .
Well, given where Russia gets it's supplies, Ukraine (or possibly NATO) is already at war with Russia,Iran, Syria, North Korea, Chechnya and possibly China. Ukraine is doing well .

Edit: Tigran will be in trouble for calling it a war.

 

[raymondo]

I need help to get a better perspective on this 'will we, won't we ' give permission for long range strikes with NATO missiles.

Ukraine is proving VERY creative and precise with long range drone strikes.

So, what can a long range missile do that a group of organized drones cannot?
1. Fly at great speed? (To get that bomber while it's on the runway)
2. Penetrate very strong bunkers?(but drones have penetrated Russian weapons bunkers)
3. Penetrate the strongest bunker in Russia?(that'll be Putin's)
4. Bring down the Kerch bridge

What I'm saying is, if Ukraine keeps on developing it's drone capability, then do they even need long range missiles?
Correct me someone!

 

[chickens]

I need help to get a better perspective on this 'will we, won't we ' give permission for long range strikes with NATO missiles.

Ukraine is proving VERY creative and precise with long range drone strikes.

So, what can a long range missile do that a group of organized drones cannot?
1. Fly at great speed? (To get that bomber while it's on the runway)
2. Penetrate very strong bunkers?(but drones have penetrated Russian weapons bunkers)
3. Penetrate the strongest bunker in Russia?(that'll be Putin's)
4. Bring down the Kerch bridge

What I'm saying is, if Ukraine keeps on developing it's drone capability, then do they even need long range missiles?
Correct me someone!

I can’t answer that, but there’s a simple economic argument that suggests that drones that can be manufactured yourself for $100 each, even if you need 40 of them to deliver the same payload, have a cost/benefit advantage over a two million dollar missile that puts you into debt with the US, and they then won’t let you fire anyway.

I do hope Ukraine becomes increasingly self-sufficient in its military capability, and its drones become increasingly powerful and effective as they’re field tested and become more advanced.

 

[Eric the meek]

I need help to get a better perspective on this 'will we, won't we ' give permission for long range strikes with NATO missiles.

Ukraine is proving VERY creative and precise with long range drone strikes.

So, what can a long range missile do that a group of organized drones cannot?
1. Fly at great speed? (To get that bomber while it's on the runway)
2. Penetrate very strong bunkers?(but drones have penetrated Russian weapons bunkers)
3. Penetrate the strongest bunker in Russia?(that'll be Putin's)
4. Bring down the Kerch bridge

What I'm saying is, if Ukraine keeps on developing it's drone capability, then do they even need long range missiles?
Correct me someone!

I'll answer it on the basis that I know little of what I'm talking about !

First, a video about the Palianytsia - a missile drone, or a jet drone, or a lightweight cruise missile. i read that it was used in the attack on Toropets.



Range is up to 370 miles.

 

[raymondo]

I'll answer it on the basis that I know little of what I'm talking about !

First, a video about the Palianytsia - a missile drone, or a jet drone, or a lightweight cruise missile. i read that it was used in the attack on Toropets.



Range is up to 370 miles.

A good video thanks. 370 miles range, not shabby at all. Presumably nav guided

 

[raymondo]

I can’t answer that, but there’s a simple economic argument that suggests that drones that can be manufactured yourself for $100 each, even if you need 40 of them to deliver the same payload, have a cost/benefit advantage over a two million dollar missile that puts you into debt with the US, and they then won’t let you fire anyway.

I do hope Ukraine becomes increasingly self-sufficient in its military capability, and its drones become increasingly powerful and effective as they’re field tested and become more advanced.

Yes, much better than getting sign off from the US on each target.
Some will of course cost more, but still FAR less than an ATACMS.

 

[raymondo]

Here's a recent update on use of the Aussie 'cardboard' drone . I don't know how much it features now, but I'm sure it's range and payload carrying ability has been vastly improved in the last year.

 

[Eric the meek]

Yes, much better than getting sign off from the US on each target.
Some will of course cost more, but still FAR less than an ATACMS.

And because they're cheaper to produce, and don't need permission, they increase the chances of a successful hit, because you can use more than one, or a whole fleet if you choose. Also, because they are in-house, Ukraine has visibility of the numbers likely to be available in points in the future, and is not dependent on unreliable deliveries of missiles from the US and elsewhere.

A much better solution.

 

[raymondo]

Ok, so is the whole political handwringing and tetchy discussions over ATACMS use really worthwhile... I ask myself.
Maybe Zelenskiy half expecting it to be turned down, but with a sweetener of alternative ammo and humanitarian supplies instead

 

[Eric the meek]

Ok, so is the whole political handwringing and tetchy discussions over ATACMS use really worthwhile... I ask myself.
Maybe Zelenskiy half expecting it to be turned down, but with a sweetener of alternative ammo and humanitarian supplies instead

Your theory could well be correct.

But it depends what the aim of all this political handwringing and tetchy discussions really was though. While your theory is more likely, there's a small part of me that thinks both Ukraine and the west have made it all up so that the Russians would take their eye off the ball. All the while Putin and friends are making changes to the nuclear doctrine - and think it's working - they won't feel inclined to actually launch one, will they?

You watched the video with Solovyev and Keosayan - Russia has worked itself up into a proper frenzy over the whole subject. What did Solovyev say right at the end? He said 'What if they strike the Kremlin again?'. He's worried. Well, not him necessarily. I meant whoever writes his script.

Meanwhile, Ukraine are hitting arms dumps all over Russia, with their new fancy Palianytsia. They scored a spectacular success at Toropets which, it must be said, is further away from Ukraine than Moscow. There's nothing like a bit of psychological warfare is there?