[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[raymondo]

Your theory could well be correct.

But it depends what the aim of all this political handwringing and tetchy discussions really was though. While your theory is more likely, there's a small part of me that thinks both Ukraine and the west have made it all up so that the Russians would take their eye off the ball. All the while Putin and friends are making changes to the nuclear doctrine - and think it's working - they won't feel inclined to actually launch one, will they?

You watched the video with Solovyev and Keosayan - Russia has worked itself up into a proper frenzy over the whole subject. What did Solovyev say right at the end? He said 'What if they strike the Kremlin again?'. He's worried. Well, not him necessarily. I meant whoever writes his script.

Meanwhile, Ukraine are hitting arms dumps all over Russia, with their new fancy Palianytsia. They scored a spectacular success at Toropets which, it must be said, is further away from Ukraine than Moscow. There's nothing like a bit of psychological warfare is there?

Well yes, in the meantime Ukraine keeps hitting arms dumps and airfields....long may the meantime continue .

Yes, that video was a frenzy, I just never know how much is acting? 0, 50,100 per cent. It messes with my thinking!

And, as you say, the whole ATACMS discussion MIGHT be a smokescreen...but I just think Zelenskiy always plays with a straight bat.
Hmm, lots to ponder.

 

[Eric the meek]

Well yes, in the meantime Ukraine keeps hitting arms dumps and airfields....long may the meantime continue .

Yes, that video was a frenzy, I just never know how much is acting? 0, 50,100 per cent. It messes with my thinking!

And, as you say, the whole ATACMS discussion MIGHT be a smokescreen...but I just think Zelenskiy always plays with a straight bat.
Hmm, lots to ponder.

It would be ironic if Putin were intimidating the whole world with the threat of nuclear war, (current count 165 times I believe) but at the same time, he failed to realise that he himself was being intimidated more by the prospect of long range missiles from the west.

Missiles which may not even be needed, because the nation he brutally invaded, has turned the tables and no longer needs the west to help it win the war that he started.

I can't begin to tell you how much satisfaction that would give me.

 

[Eric the meek]

A chemical plant is on fire at Perm, 1200 km east of Moscow.

 

[raymondo]

 

[Eric the meek]

Dangerous, unprofessional, risking lives unnecessarily, risking losing expensive planes, risking an international incident, and possibly a confrontation between two nuclear super powers.

Apart from that, it was a bloody good idea.

 

[Eric the meek]

Russia is not going to lie down and roll over.

Next year, they will be throwing the kitchen sink at their existential war.

 

[Triggaaar]

How did the US pilot not know he was coming?

 

[Bodian]

How did the US pilot not know he was coming?

No rear view mirror?

 

[raymondo]

How did the US pilot not know he was coming?

I imagine he did, in his wing mirrors or whatever, but probably never imagined the idiot would do that

 

[Triggaaar]

I imagine he did, in his wing mirrors or whatever, but probably never imagined the idiot would do that

I'd hope the pilot had him on radar, and could see him closing fast, so would have been ready to be buzzed.

 

[raymondo]

Russia is not going to lie down and roll over.

Next year, they will be throwing the kitchen sink at their existential war.

Good to see their gas and electric are also increasing by 12%.
Solovyev is very well funded... he'll have a nice retirement one day, hopefully soon.

 

[raymondo]

I'd hope the pilot had him on radar, and could see him closing fast, so would have been ready to be buzzed.

I would think so - probably decided to stay on track rather than take risky avoidance action...?
Any RAF pilots on NSC?

 

[The Clamp]

Both sides bogged down in trench and urban warfare. Moving a few miles each way here and there.

Ukraine desperately pushing for long rage permission to break the stalemate before Putin gets frustrated and goes from ballistic to nuclear.

 

[raymondo]

Both sides bogged down in trench and urban warfare. Moving a few miles each way here and there.

Ukraine desperately pushing for long rage permission to break the stalemate before Putin gets frustrated and goes from ballistic to nuclear.

I don't think he'll go nuclear, but also I don't think Putin is going to stop the grind. Ukraine has to make their drone strikes so bad for Russia that Putin gets stopped internally

 

[Eric the meek]

Both sides bogged down in trench and urban warfare. Moving a few miles each way here and there.

Ukraine desperately pushing for long rage permission to break the stalemate before Putin gets frustrated and goes from ballistic to nuclear.

I don't think he's that frustrated just yet. All the time he doesn't get the nukes out, he is still in the game.

I've always been of the opinion that we shouldn't focus on what Putin says (i.e. nuke threat #165), but instead we should focus on what he actually does.

What is he doing? He is announcing a draft budget for 2025 and the following two years.

If you read Anton Gerashchenko's tweet in post #17,026, you will see he is doubling down his war economy, with even more being spent on defence, and another mass mobilisation. While this isn't definitive proof that he doesn't intend to nuke anyone, and will never use them, it's a kind of a pointer...

He is now taking a risk with the Russian people, that they will continue to be compliant, and he will be able to manage any unrest because of the (official) 9.4% inflation, with pre-announced price rises of housing and utilities going up by 11.9%, gas 10.3% and electricity 12.4%. These after rises of 9.8% in 2024. And this is on the wild assumption that those figures are true.

There are lots of unknowns as we begin 2024 Q4, but we can see that Putin is preparing the ground to dig in.

 

[raymondo]

I think Putin has grown to enjoy the process of trying to batter Ukraine into submission. He loves giving orders to fire missiles into hospitals, supermarkets, civilian housing.
He loves having power over the Kremlin, the Generals, the Media, the conscripts, the people in general. He just loves it.
I think he's even kind of happy he didn't win in 3 days ...as he would have missed all this ego boosting 'fun'.

 

[raymondo]

An update on Russia's economy from Joe Bloggs two days back:
1. Russia's interest rate is now at 19% and very likely to continue rising.
2. Russian government issued a bond event in the second quarter, trying to raise 'Xgazillion' roubles or somesuch to support their war effort. Only 30% of the bonds were bought - just 30%...at 19% interest.
3. Only 6% of the bonds were bought by overseas investors, the other 94% being bought internally in Russia.
4. As Joe says, let's see what happens in the third quarter.

So, it seems that even countries that are Russia's 'allies' don't trust them enough to buy their bonds.

I'm no accountant but still found the numbers interesting (if you want the detail, JB's video is 23 minutes...he's very thorough )

 

[Triggaaar]

I think Putin has grown to enjoy the process of trying to batter Ukraine into submission. He loves giving orders to fire missiles into hospitals, supermarkets, civilian housing.
He loves having power over the Kremlin, the Generals, the Media, the conscripts, the people in general. He just loves it.
I think he's even kind of happy he didn't win in 3 days ...as he would have missed all this ego boosting 'fun'.

I don't see it that way. His almighty military wasn't even able to defeat Ukraine, and it's now in tatters. He commanded respect on the world stage and now he commands ridicule. He can't even travel the world anymore.

 

[Eric the meek]

I think Putin has grown to enjoy the process of trying to batter Ukraine into submission. He loves giving orders to fire missiles into hospitals, supermarkets, civilian housing.
He loves having power over the Kremlin, the Generals, the Media, the conscripts, the people in general. He just loves it.
I think he's even kind of happy he didn't win in 3 days ...as he would have missed all this ego boosting 'fun'.

Are you saying that he's a weird control freak, who has eliminated all dissent, rooted out all possible rivals, who belongs in medieval history? You could be right.

He's just reiterated the reasons why he invaded - because Ukraine is full of Nazis. Given that he doesn't use a mobile phone or the internet, and has banned all truth about the real world, it is possible that he still believes his own spin, and nobody has had the courage to put him straight, even two and a half years into the war.

 

[Eric the meek]

An update on Russia's economy from Joe Bloggs two days back:
1. Russia's interest rate is now at 19% and very likely to continue rising.
2. Russian government issued a bond event in the second quarter, trying to raise 'Xgazillion' roubles or somesuch to support their war effort. Only 30% of the bonds were bought - just 30%...at 19% interest.
3. Only 6% of the bonds were bought by overseas investors, the other 94% being bought internally in Russia.
4. As Joe says, let's see what happens in the third quarter.

So, it seems that even countries that are Russia's 'allies' don't trust them enough to buy their bonds.

I'm no accountant but still found the numbers interesting (if you want the detail, JB's video is 23 minutes...he's very thorough )

This is what intrigues me. The Russian economy. Those figures - if true - give us a glimpse into how the Russian economy is doing. 9.4% inflation, if true. 19% interest rates. Low take up of those bonds. That's a one-way ticket to bankruptcy, however long it may take.

But he's drafting the budget for the next three years, as if it isn't happening.