[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[raymondo]

Given the west's previous reluctance to do anything that could be construed as escalation, could it be that we are giving the Russians 'fair warning' to move their planes to a place of safety, i.e. a safe distance beyond the range of ATACMS? Presumably, if the planes are used again to bomb Ukraine, they will be considered to be a valid target.

Perhaps the reported arrival of missiles from Iran, could have prompted the visit by Anthony Blinken and David Lammy and the pre-announcement.

Yes, that's good thinking and almost certainly correct . Pushing their glide bombers back is a part disablement of their function.
I imagine the west knows pretty well how the Iranian missiles are transported to Russia. If by ship... probably out of range of Ukrainian drones?? for now.

 

[raymondo]

Sounds great, and long overdue..... but whod be surprised if the next game is to try and limit any resupply of ATACMS or make continued excuses about their provision.

Great policy only if Ukraine has enough of them contiuously

Hmm...yes. The US fluctuates between 'aggressive' statements of intent, and then some rebalancing, frequently by slow supply.
I hope Ukraine can increasingly become self sufficient in drone supply, and that a fast tracked ballistic missile program (can only be done with significant western support I'd have thought) comes to fruition while they still firmly hold Russia at bay.

 

[peterward]

Hmm...yes. The US fluctuates between 'aggressive' statements of intent, and then some rebalancing, frequently by slow supply.
I hope Ukraine can increasingly become self sufficient in drone supply, and that a fast tracked ballistic missile program (can only be done with significant western support I'd have thought) comes to fruition while they still firmly hold Russia at bay.

Agree with all you say and am buoyant that Ukraine has quite an advanced aero industry, Antonov aircraft is Ukrainian, and Motor Sich their aero engine company makes nearly all Helicopter engines across former USSR. Their missle industry was also huge in Soviet times and they were one of main creators of Soviet missiles, so you'd guess theres the nous and knowhow to get something up and running (maybe by plagiarising others tech?)......

Developing long missile technology at scale seems absolutey key...... being able to hit Russian airbases and missile sites but also to have air raid sirens on in Moscow and St Petersburg nightly will do a lot for Russian societies outlook of Putins fascist adventure..... as long as its on TV, who cares.....but when it comes to the capital nightly, hopefully that will increase pressure on the Kremlin as people wont be quite as happy to just nod along.

2 biggest things in the near future imho are the US election (Lord forbid Trump wins, that would be a disaster). The next big event, is Scholz being kicked out in October 2025, which is as much a foregone conclusion as the Tories were here. The main oppositon support Taurus for Ukraine and arming Ukraine.

Just have to hope Ukraine can stay in the fight, arm themselves with their own tech and hope the western politcal winds change.
Victory and defeat are still both very possible, though I still genuinely believe Ukraine will prevail, as its exestential for them.... it isnt for Russia, only for Putin.

 

[Eric the meek]

Yes, that's good thinking and almost certainly correct . Pushing their glide bombers back is a part disablement of their function.
I imagine the west knows pretty well how the Iranian missiles are transported to Russia. If by ship... probably out of range of Ukrainian drones?? for now.

My guess would be across the Caspian Sea, up the Volga to a suitable river port, and on to airbases deemed out of range of the 'bandera' Kyiv regime (how dare Kyiv try to destroy our missiles before we've even dropped them on Ukraine?).

 

[raymondo]

You would have thought so. There are many Youtubers who agree with you, with predictions of a collapse, whether it be in the ruble, payments for goods received, Russian aviation, or others predicting a coup in Moscow. One or more of them could be right at some point. But when?

A big problem with Putin's absolute control of the media, is that the juicy bits rarely make it out into the public domain. On the odd occasion when something interesting emerges, like a wayward propagandist, we can't be sure that it isn't orchestrated, for whatever reason that may be going on in Putin's head.

Another factor that may push the end further away into the middle distance, is that Putin doesn't care about the human cost of the war, either Russian and certainly not Ukrainian. He is probably prepared to take the risk of another unpopular mass mobilisation. Until then, I expect he will continue to throw the kitchen sink at it.

I think another factor that has become more prominent in Putin's determination to plough on regardless, throwing more bodies on the fire and (hopefully) destroying the Russian economy day by day.....is his now personal crusade not to be bested by a mere comedian.

A comedian who gently made fun of him face to face in the Russian KVN theatre show (ref Zelenskiy part1 on iPlayer ) - Putin only laughed a little at the teasing when he saw the camera on him (Medvedev, I think, sitting next to Putin, laughed like a drain at every joke).
That will burn deeply inside Putin I believe. His advisors have probably informed him it's showing on iPlayer.

 

[raymondo]

Agree with all you say and am buoyant that Ukraine has quite an advanced aero industry, Antonov aircraft is Ukrainian, and Motor Sich their aero engine company makes nearly all Helicopter engines across former USSR, their missle indusstry was also huge in Soviet times and they were one of main creators of Soviet missiles, so you'd guess theres the nous and knowhow to get something up and running (maybe by plagiarising others tech?)...... developing long missile technology at scale seems absolutey key...... being abe to not only hiy Russian airbases and missile sites but to have air raid sirens on in Moscow and St Petersburg nightly will do a lot for Russian societies acceptance of Putins fascist adventure..... as long as its on TV, who cares.....but when it comes to the capital nightly, that will increase pressure on the Kremlin as people wont be happy to nod along.

2 biggest things in the near future are US election and Lord forbid Trump wins, that would be a disaster, if Harris wins, the next big even, which is a given is Scholz being kicked out in October 2025, which is as much a foregone conclusion as the Tories were here. The main oppositon support Taurus for Ukraine and arming Ukraine.

Just have to hope Ukraine can stay in the fight, arm themselves with their own tech and hope the western politcal winds change. Victory and defeat are still both very possible, though I still genuinely believe Ukraine will prevail, as its exestential for them, it isnt for Russia, only for Putin.

Yes, Russians in those cities need to spend night after night in shelters and their metro stations, and to lose heating and power when they need it most.

Ukraine/Europe/UK/(Pentagon?) need to be planning for the worst (a Trump win) while hoping for the best. Ukraine must be helped to quickly become 'self-sufficient' in missile manufacture - then they can decide themselves what targets to hit in Russia.
The only hope I hold if Trump wins is that advisors (if he allows any with a brain) will state the case, in ways he'll understand, for continuing support of Ukraine: US arms industry; else it's a green light for China's ambitions;...

I'll admit to not following German politics in sufficient detail to realise the main opposition supports sending Taurus, that's thanks

 

[Eric the meek]

Tonight, I've taken the opportunity to watch the second episode of the Zelensky story again.

The reason I watched it again, was to listen to Boris. (Yes, inspite of everything, there are moments when he is worth listening to).

He mentioned the semi-satirical nature of the phone call with Putin. 'Boris, I don't want to nuke you' etc.

It reminded me of a video from the Youtube channel 'Silicon Curtain' by Jonathan Fink.

The gist of it was, that the elite gangster Russians speak in terms of allegory, veiled threat, metaphor etc. The listener is expected to get the message. There is no suggestion that this applies to ordinary Russians. But it may be of use during the decline of Russia that we are all witnessing. The elite are all posturing, making powerplays, however crass they may be.

They seem not to know any other way to behave.

 

[Eric the meek]

Omsk is 3500km from Ukraine. This surely isn't a drone.

 

[Bodian]

Omsk is 3500km from Ukraine. This surely isn't a drone.

Another cigarette?

 

[raymondo]

Omsk is 3500km from Ukraine. This surely isn't a drone.

Partisan activity . Factory maintenance error .

 

[fly high]

Omsk is 3500km from Ukraine. This surely isn't a drone.

I love to see black smoke billowing out over Russia.

 

[Eric the meek]

Reports of Russia making a counter-offensive in Kursk.

That means that, contrary to the message they tried to give (that it didn't matter), it most certainly does matter to Putin and Russia.

One reason why it matters, not just the optics, is that Kursk is nearer to Moscow than Ukraine. Now, Moscow is not just within range of Ukrainian drones but it is also within range (I think) of western missiles.

 

[crookie]

MSN

A few more murderers who won't be able to join the fight

 

[Binney on acid]

I now understand the rules of engagement. It’s permissible for Mr Genocide to use long range weapons against densely populated areas of Ukraine, but Ukraine mustn’t respond.

 

[fly high]

I now understand the rules of engagement. It’s permissible for Mr Genocide to use long range weapons against densely populated areas of Ukraine, but Ukraine mustn’t respond.

Even though they would only use them against military bases.

 

[raymondo]

Steve Rosenberg summarizing the 'red lines' crossed so far.
BBC News - Putin draws new red line on long-range missiles

Vladimir Putin draws new red line on long-range missiles

Vladimir Putin has said Ukraine using the West's long-range missiles would mean Nato countries "fighting with Russia".

www.bbc.com

 

[Sirnormangall]

Steve Rosenberg summarizing the 'red lines' crossed so far.
BBC News - Putin draws new red line on long-range missiles

Vladimir Putin draws new red line on long-range missiles

Vladimir Putin has said Ukraine using the West's long-range missiles would mean Nato countries "fighting with Russia".

www.bbc.com

It’s getting a bit scary, but surely we should call Putin’s bluff? In supplying Ukraine with arms the west should not attach strings to their use. I doubt that Iran or N Korea imposes terms or restrictions on Russia on the use of their armaments

 

[Eric the meek]

Another good article fro Steve Rosenberg.

This time, about Russians turning fellow Russians in to the authorities.

Steve Rosenberg: Russian snitching evokes ghosts of the past

More Russians have been reporting each other since Ukraine invasion - what are the implications?

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[raymondo]

It’s getting a bit scary, but surely we should call Putin’s bluff? In supplying Ukraine with arms the west should not attach strings to their use. I doubt that Iran or N Korea imposes terms or restrictions on Russia on the use of their armaments

Absolutely, call Putin's latest (of many) red lines. I'm not quite sure why SO much is being made of this one: Crimea has had many missiles fired at it, so I guess Putin doesn't REALLY feel it's part of Russia.
And, yes to your final sentence

 

[fly high]

Absolutely, call Putin's latest (of many) red lines. I'm not quite sure why SO much is being made of this one: Crimea has had many missiles fired at it, so I guess Putin doesn't REALLY feel it's part of Russia.
And, yes to your final sentence

No new pledge on Ukraine missiles after Starmer-Biden talks in Washington

Ukraine has repeatedly urged the UK and US to let it fire long-range missiles against targets inside Russia.

www.bbc.co.uk

Nothing confirmed yet but looking like the cowards are falling again for Putin’s threats. That is not the way to stop a bully.