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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)



Baldseagull

Well-known member
Jan 26, 2012
11,839
Crawley
The risk is not that Russia would make attacks on NATO countries, the risk is that he might be able to sell a war with NATO to Russians, and be able to have a larger and wider conscription, without losing the tenuous support he has in the population.

I don't think Putin will want to up the stakes before the result of US elections, so now is the time to do it, he will hold off hoping for Trump to come in and appease him. And once his red line has been crossed without a war declaration from him, it will be harder for him to sell it later on, after the US election.
 




raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,157
Wiltshire

Nothing confirmed yet but looking like the cowards are falling again for Putin’s threats. That is not the way to stop a bully.
I thought Kurt Volker's interview on the Today program was very good - he explained clearly that Putin's threats are simply deterrence to the West and should be ignored.
As he said...if Putin wins Ukraine then the war will really escalate as Russia aims for the next country.
 


raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,157
Wiltshire
The risk is not that Russia would make attacks on NATO countries, the risk is that he might be able to sell a war with NATO to Russians, and be able to have a larger and wider conscription, without losing the tenuous support he has in the population.

I don't think Putin will want to up the stakes before the result of US elections, so now is the time to do it, he will hold off hoping for Trump to come in and appease him. And once his red line has been crossed without a war declaration from him, it will be harder for him to sell it later on, after the US election.
I agree with that 👍
 


raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,157
Wiltshire
Another good article fro Steve Rosenberg.

This time, about Russians turning fellow Russians in to the authorities.

I've read it now - a very powerful article...the Russian 'genetic code ' becoming more active.
I'm surprised the authorities allow Rosenberg to stay (I'm glad they do!) - he must have some key supporters I think.
 


Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
52,869
Goldstone
The risk is not that Russia would make attacks on NATO countries, the risk is that he might be able to sell a war with NATO to Russians, and be able to have a larger and wider conscription, without losing the tenuous support he has in the population.

I disagree because he'll be doing that anyway. Obviously he's not telling them the truth about this Special Military Operation.




I don't think Putin will want to up the stakes before the result of US elections, so now is the time to do it, he will hold off hoping for Trump to come in and appease him. And once his red line has been crossed without a war declaration from him, it will be harder for him to sell it later on, after the US election.

Good point.
 




sparkie

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
13,230
Hove
The risk is not that Russia would make attacks on NATO countries, the risk is that he might be able to sell a war with NATO to Russians, and be able to have a larger and wider conscription, without losing the tenuous support he has in the population.

I don't think Putin will want to up the stakes before the result of US elections, so now is the time to do it, he will hold off hoping for Trump to come in and appease him. And once his red line has been crossed without a war declaration from him, it will be harder for him to sell it later on, after the US election.
This is his best strategy.

And in any case publically giving permission to use the weapons and then Trump publically withdrawing the permission 4 months later isn't ideal.
 




Baldseagull

Well-known member
Jan 26, 2012
11,839
Crawley
I disagree because he'll be doing that anyway. Obviously he's not telling them the truth about this Special Military Operation.
He is selling it, but it's mostly only those that see only state TV that are buying it. If it's open knowledge that the US is allowing its weapons to strike inside Russia, it will be easier to sway the rest.
 




raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,157
Wiltshire
The West could deal with this with one simple press announcement, rather than all the grandstanding meetings and hand wringing:
"Russia receives weapons from its allies and uses them, how it wants, to attack Ukraine.
Ukraine receives weapons from its allies and can use them, how it wants, to defend itself."
 


GT49er

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Feb 1, 2009
48,991
Gloucester
The West could deal with this with one simple press announcement, rather than all the grandstanding meetings and hand wringing:
"Russia receives weapons from its allies and uses them, how it wants, to attack Ukraine.
Ukraine receives weapons from its allies and can use them, how it wants, to defend itself."
Perhaps a compromise the wavering yanks could agree to would be to limit the use of long distance weapons inside Russia to military, industrial and transport targets, but not civilian targets?
 


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
6,917
The West could deal with this with one simple press announcement, rather than all the grandstanding meetings and hand wringing:
"Russia receives weapons from its allies and uses them, how it wants, to attack Ukraine.
Ukraine receives weapons from its allies and can use them, how it wants, to defend itself."
I'm wondering if there may be a bit of smoke and mirrors surrounding this delay in making an announcement.
For instance, there may be value in giving Ukraine permission, but not announcing it, and leaving Putin to wonder about it. This action could save Ukrainian lives.
NATO could do a Putin, and do the opposite of what they are expected to do. But if we announce it, it firms up and becomes official, and Putin could use it for his faux outrage.

It is possible that just the prospect of western missiles hitting Russia, but not actually pulling the lever, may act as a sufficient deterrent. OK, it's unlikely, but it might be worth a pop. A bit like the Kerch bridge maybe. The prospect of the bridge being destroyed may be of more value than actually destroying it.
 








Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
6,917
But surely it needs to be said.
That's an interesting point.

Given that Russia will spin any announcement or lack of announcement in their favour ('you promised you wouldn't aim for civilian targets but look at this..'), do we want to give Putin an open goal to mass mobilise, use nukes or whatever? Bear in mind this is exactly what Ukraine has previously said (no civilian targets with their drones) but Russia has of course come out and claimed one hit a residential block.

I'm not sure I know what the right answer is here!
 




fly high

Well-known member
Aug 25, 2011
1,690
in a house
Perhaps a compromise the wavering yanks could agree to would be to limit the use of long distance weapons inside Russia to military, industrial and transport targets, but not civilian targets?
I think that is what Ukraine would do with them anyway & exactly what they want them for.
 


fly high

Well-known member
Aug 25, 2011
1,690
in a house
That's an interesting point.

Given that Russia will spin any announcement or lack of announcement in their favour ('you promised you wouldn't aim for civilian targets but look at this..'), do we want to give Putin an open goal to mass mobilise, use nukes or whatever? Bear in mind this is exactly what Ukraine has previously said (no civilian targets with their drones) but Russia has of course come out and claimed one hit a residential block.

I'm not sure I know what the right answer is here!
Guess the problem is there will always be the odd one which goes astray.
 


Binney on acid

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 30, 2003
2,659
Shoreham
Perhaps a compromise the wavering yanks could agree to would be to limit the use of long distance weapons inside Russia to military, industrial and transport targets, but not civilian targets?
It would be interesting to see how the state controlled Russian media responds to a watered down proposal from the west.
 








Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
6,917
How about:
" Ukraine know what they have permission to target and, unlike Russia, will do all they can to minimize civilian casualties ".

Keeps Putin guessing about where to put his planes and air defense systems.
Or give him a long list of 'targets' for humanitarian reasons, so he would be under pressure to evacuate those areas. And then if there were casualties afterwards, he could be blamed for not evacuating them having been given a clear warning.

Of course, I'm sure he would still find a way of saying 'not my fault'.
 


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