[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Eric the meek]

Well put.
Yes, it's as if the US would relish negotiating with a damaged/weakened Russia, but they don't want Russia SO damaged that negotiations may be hard to control or finesse by the US.
I even struggle to put this stuff into words clearly!

Here's my attempt.

Putin has often described the Russia-Ukraine war as a proxy war for the US. Meanwhile, Ukraine has complained of the US providing just enough arms for Ukraine not to lose, but not enough arms for Ukraine to win. I think both are correct.

I have said a few times now, that the Pentagon has got Russia exactly where it wants it. Russia weakening militarily and economically by the day, Ukraine taking the collateral damage, and no US boots on the ground, but the Pentagon controlling the war at arms length.

The US is exercising it's enormous economic might.

The only positive is that the US is unlikely to let Ukraine lose. Trump is the unknown of course.

 

[raymondo]

'They are victims of their own propaganda. I found the formula of how the Russian really works. First he writes some crazy theory. Then they put this on TV. Then they watch their own TV and start to believe it. It's like a cycle. It's like it's real. When we were talking to these people, they really believed that we were full of Nazis, killing people on the street. There are 150 million people in this country. They are watching the TV and they are believing this thing.'

- David Arakhamia, Leader of Zelensky's ruling party, The Zelensky Story, episode 3.

Do you understand the significance? The Russians who came to negotiate the peace, actually believed the propaganda.

Somehow, somewhen, we have to turn that around. Win the peace. Otherwise Russia, and its leaders, will lick their wounds, regroup, re-arm, re-organise, and next time they may find a way to conquer Ukraine.

How then, do we reverse a century of being duped by your leaders? I once read, that it is easier to be duped, than to convince someone that they've been duped?

Open to suggestions.

I don't think many older Russians can ever be de-duped. For younger Russians I guess it depends on what 'peace' transpires, and what influences push on them.

 

[essbee1]

Here's my attempt.

Putin has often described the Russia-Ukraine war as a proxy war for the US. Meanwhile, Ukraine has complained of the US providing just enough arms for Ukraine not to lose, but not enough arms for Ukraine to win. I think both are correct.

I have said a few times now, that the Pentagon has got Russia exactly where it wants it. Russia weakening militarily and economically by the day, Ukraine taking the collateral damage, and no US boots on the ground, but the Pentagon controlling the war at arms length.

The US is exercising it's enormous economic might.

The only positive is that the US is unlikely to let Ukraine lose. Trump is the unknown of course.

I think there may be a lot of truth in this. If true, the sad and annoying thing is that people in Ukraine are dying when,
in all probability, an end could be put to this war quickly.

 

[raymondo]

Here's my attempt.

Putin has often described the Russia-Ukraine war as a proxy war for the US. Meanwhile, Ukraine has complained of the US providing just enough arms for Ukraine not to lose, but not enough arms for Ukraine to win. I think both are correct.

I have said a few times now, that the Pentagon has got Russia exactly where it wants it. Russia weakening militarily and economically by the day, Ukraine taking the collateral damage, and no US boots on the ground, but the Pentagon controlling the war at arms length.

The US is exercising it's enormous economic might.

The only positive is that the US is unlikely to let Ukraine lose. Trump is the unknown of course.

Should Trump win (please no .....) I wonder what influence, if any, the Pentagon will retain on the situation.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Seems apt to place this here…i havnt seen it elsewhere ….gone far too early as many people have in this crazy war

David Knowles, the Telegraph journalist behind the award-winning Ukraine: The Latest podcast, has died.

Mr Knowles, 32, who worked as a senior audio journalist and presenter, died while in Gibraltar on Sunday following what was believed to be a cardiac arrest.

He joined The Telegraph in 2020 as deputy head of social media and was later promoted to head of social media.

Upon the outbreak of the Ukraine war in 2022, Mr Knowles launched Ukraine: The Latest, a weekday podcast that is still running two years later.

This year, Ukraine: The Latest won the Best News Podcast at the Publisher Podcast Awards.

 

[raymondo]

Seems aptly to place this here…i havnt seen it elsewhere ….gone far too early as many people have in this crazy war

David Knowles, the Telegraph journalist behind the award-winning Ukraine: The Latest podcast, has died.

Mr Knowles, 32, who worked as a senior audio journalist and presenter, died while in Gibraltar on Sunday following what was believed to be a cardiac arrest.

He joined The Telegraph in 2020 as deputy head of social media and was later promoted to head of social media.

Upon the outbreak of the Ukraine war in 2022, Mr Knowles launched Ukraine: The Latest, a weekday podcast that is still running two years later.

This year, Ukraine: The Latest won the Best News Podcast at the Publisher Podcast Awards.

Blimey...no age at all . As others have mentioned on this thread, it is indeed an excellent podcast.

 

[raymondo]

After watching the first two episodes of Zelenskiy, three things stick in my mind (there could easily be 20 of course):

1. Trump saying to Zelenskiy... we'll keep supplying you military aid, but please try to dig up some Info to stitch up the Bidens ().

2. At the end of the Paris meeting between Zelenskiy and Putin, Macron and Merkel (the meeting 'facilitators') move straight over to talk with Putin, almost to congratulate him...leaving Zelenskiy as a lonely figure at the other end of the table.
I can try to be generous: they'd had meetings with Putin for years? the EU and especially Germany were big trading partners of Russia?
Clearly, they wanted to believe Putin's version of events in Donbas...it would have made their lives much easier.
I think it took Macron a few years to realise that everything Putin said was a lie.
I wonder what Merkel thinks years later...about her Russian pal who spoke German. I bet she thought she had the inside track on Putin's psyche.

3. On the day of the invasion, when Zelenskiy said to his top team..."you have families too, I won't judge you if you leave". Astonishing openness, bravery and humanity.
I try to imagine how Putin would be if, say, China invaded and headed for Moscow. Probably, any discussion would be a video call from Putin either from his palace bunker, or a far remote country. He'd probably call his military and political leaders cowards if they left Russia.

 

[Eric the meek]

We're not going to get much news of the damage from this, but the psychological effect on Russians of being attacked by multiple drones on the Moscow region must be substantial. Many questions will be asked. Ukraine is obviously now in a position to comfortably lose 144 drones in a single night.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-destroys-ukraine-launched-drone-flying-towards-moscow-mayor-says-2024-09-09/

 

[jcdenton08]

We're not going to get much news of the damage from this, but the psychological effect on Russians of being attacked by multiple drones on the Moscow region must be substantial. Many questions will be asked. Ukraine is obviously now in a position to comfortably lose 144 drones in a single night.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-destroys-ukraine-launched-drone-flying-towards-moscow-mayor-says-2024-09-09/

It’s always very damaging to morale when it’s close to home, it’s so much easier when it’s us against “the other”. Hard to measure for sure, but something historians will reflect on in the decades to come.

 

[Eric the meek]

Here's a link to another Reuters article (linked in the article in #16,729 about drone combat.

It's quite long, but looks worth dipping into when you have time:

How drone combat in Ukraine is changing warfare

In Ukraine, drones have changed warfare, surveilling frontlines, guiding artillery and destroying enemy targets. These can be close by or hundreds of kilometres away, deep in Russian and Ukrainian territory.

www.reuters.com

 

[raymondo]

We're not going to get much news of the damage from this, but the psychological effect on Russians of being attacked by multiple drones on the Moscow region must be substantial. Many questions will be asked. Ukraine is obviously now in a position to comfortably lose 144 drones in a single night.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-destroys-ukraine-launched-drone-flying-towards-moscow-mayor-says-2024-09-09/

And I imagine that Ukraine was targeting military or infrastructure...with the Russian air defense/nav hacking bringing drones down in residential areas.

 

[raymondo]

Do we think, is it possible, with rapidly improving drone technology, range, payload, accuracy,and crap Russian air defense... Ukraine may not need US approval to hit air bases deep inside Russia with ATACMS etc.
Maybe...

 

[Eric the meek]

And I imagine that Ukraine was targeting military or infrastructure...with the Russian air defense/nav hacking bringing drones down in residential areas.

You're almost certainly right. Why would Ukraine waste time trying to terrorise the populace? Much better to neutralise Russia's war capability.

I suspect some of the drones are surveillance ones, probing, testing for ways through the electronic defences surrounding Moscow.

The Ukrainian drone industry has an advantage, in that it is distributed among hundreds and hundreds of workshops. So if the Russians find a manufacturer, they've only found one manufacturer among many.

Another thing I read the other week, was that Ukrainian surveillance drones on the front line are finding Russian drones, and following them back to their launch sites, so that their locations can be radioed back to help guide a HIMARS missile hit its target. Maybe this is why we, the UK, have sent over a new batch of short-range missiles?

 

[essbee1]

You're almost certainly right. Why would Ukraine waste time trying to terrorise the populace? Much better to neutralise Russia's war capability.

I suspect some of the drones are surveillance ones, probing, testing for ways through the electronic defences surrounding Moscow.

The Ukrainian drone industry has an advantage, in that it is distributed among hundreds and hundreds of workshops. So if the Russians find a manufacturer, they've only found one manufacturer among many.

Another thing I read the other week, was that Ukrainian surveillance drones on the front line are finding Russian drones, and following them back to their launch sites, so that their locations can be radioed back to help guide a HIMARS missile hit its target. Maybe this is why we, the UK, have sent over a new batch of short-range missiles?

In my opinion, the west have always been at least two steps ahead of Russia in technology terms.
My point (and something I believe strongly) is that we wil always come out on top in a
technology war, which is what this is becoming. The sad part is that it won't happen overnight and
requires a gradual wearing down of the opposition and eventual supression technology wise. But there
is no way on earth that Russia can keep going against the tide for too long.

 

[Eric the meek]

But there is no way on earth that Russia can keep going against the tide for too long.

You would have thought so. There are many Youtubers who agree with you, with predictions of a collapse, whether it be in the ruble, payments for goods received, Russian aviation, or others predicting a coup in Moscow. One or more of them could be right at some point. But when?

A big problem with Putin's absolute control of the media, is that the juicy bits rarely make it out into the public domain. On the odd occasion when something interesting emerges, like a wayward propagandist, we can't be sure that it isn't orchestrated, for whatever reason that may be going on in Putin's head.

Another factor that may push the end further away into the middle distance, is that Putin doesn't care about the human cost of the war, either Russian and certainly not Ukrainian. He is probably prepared to take the risk of another unpopular mass mobilisation. Until then, I expect he will continue to throw the kitchen sink at it.

 

[essbee1]

You would have thought so. There are many Youtubers who agree with you, with predictions of a collapse, whether it be in the ruble, payments for goods received, Russian aviation, or others predicting a coup in Moscow. One or more of them could be right at some point. But when?

A big problem with Putin's absolute control of the media, is that the juicy bits rarely make it out into the public domain. On the odd occasion when something interesting emerges, like a wayward propagandist, we can't be sure that it isn't orchestrated, for whatever reason that may be going on in Putin's head.

Another factor that may push the end further away into the middle distance, is that Putin doesn't care about the human cost of the war, either Russian and certainly not Ukrainian. He is probably prepared to take the risk of another unpopular mass mobilisation. Until then, I expect he will continue to throw the kitchen sink at it.

Like all tyrants in history I guess Eric. Bellends. You just have to ask youself 'why oh why?' We are all custodians of this world only - we don't own it. Who the hell does he think he's benefitting when he'll be dead soon (hopefully)?

 

[raymondo]

You're almost certainly right. Why would Ukraine waste time trying to terrorise the populace? Much better to neutralise Russia's war capability.

I suspect some of the drones are surveillance ones, probing, testing for ways through the electronic defences surrounding Moscow.

The Ukrainian drone industry has an advantage, in that it is distributed among hundreds and hundreds of workshops. So if the Russians find a manufacturer, they've only found one manufacturer among many.

Another thing I read the other week, was that Ukrainian surveillance drones on the front line are finding Russian drones, and following them back to their launch sites, so that their locations can be radioed back to help guide a HIMARS missile hit its target. Maybe this is why we, the UK, have sent over a new batch of short-range missiles?

I always forget about the surveillance drones - very interesting that they follow enemy drones back to their base.
I imagine a number of avid online gamers have found their niche role in this war.

 

[raymondo]

Great if this is true...but why telegraph such a move to Russia who now have time to move/hide their planes

 

[Eric the meek]

Great if this is true...but why telegraph such a move to Russia who now have time to move/hide their planes

Given the west's previous reluctance to do anything that could be construed as escalation, could it be that we are giving the Russians 'fair warning' to move their planes to a place of safety, i.e. a safe distance beyond the range of ATACMS? Presumably, if the planes are used again to bomb Ukraine, they will be considered to be a valid target.

Perhaps the reported arrival of missiles from Iran, could have prompted the visit by Anthony Blinken and David Lammy and the pre-announcement.

 

[peterward]

Great if this is true...but why telegraph such a move to Russia who now have time to move/hide their planes

Sounds great, and long overdue..... but whod be surprised if the next game is to try and limit any resupply of ATACMS or make continued excuses about their provision.

Great policy only if Ukraine has enough of them contiuously