[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Bodian]

Obviously not condoning Russia's invasion and this horrible war, but I am confused why after the break up of the Soviet Union and the victory of the Cold War NATO still decided to expand towards Russia when the reason it was formed was no longer there or a threat. Putin who was at an earlier time quite friendly with the Western countries even asked maybe in a not serious or ironic way if Russia could now join NATO.
Maybe this situation wouldn't have arrived if NATO decided to stay as it was in 1989.

Countries join NATO mainly because it is a defensive alliance, and they feel the need for joint protection.

So, what you are effectively suggesting could be read as 'those countries closer to Russia, who were scared of Russian actions and so applied to join NATO to help defend themselves if necessary should have been refused by the other members of NATO and left to suffer whatever fate was in store for them on their own.'

I'd prefer a wider peace pact than that really.

 

[nwgull]

Also, Putin didn't suddenly wake up one day and think "wouldn't it be nice to have all those countries back under our control - let's invade one". It's his long-held belief. So your argument falls down a bit there too.

He literally stated in a speech in 2005 that the collapse of the USSR was ' the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century'. He has hardly been hiding it!

 

[Eric the meek]

I think we can take any speech from Russia, especially those aimed at the West as nothing more than playing the Statesman. Posturing.

Speeches that are written in minutes and mean nothing.

Russia will continue to invade other nations and nothing will stop Putin short of brutal and overwhelming military action.

Personally, I think anyone who doesn’t see that is kidding themselves.

I absolutely do see that, and agree with you entirely. Putin won't stop until he is stopped. But seeing that clearly, should not be a barrier to gleaning other information that may be less clear from speeches.

A few days ago I was down a rabbit hole, trying to find out why Russians lie so much. I found that the Russian language is highly contextualised. The listener or reader is expected to see and understand the context. I.e. look beyond the lies and the posturing. In the light of this, do you see that the hidden message in his speech, could be that he is first telling us he is being honest, the West has halted his expansion plans, he is under pressure, and asking for cooperation from the West?

I'm not saying I believe any of it or that it should be taken at face value. Quite the opposite. But it's an interesting development - hidden nuanced messages. Is this the next level of his maskirovka? Or is he fighting for his life? Or both?

 

[essbee1]

I absolutely do see that, and agree with you entirely. Putin won't stop until he is stopped. But seeing that clearly, should not be a barrier to gleaning other information that may be less clear from speeches.

A few days ago I was down a rabbit hole, trying to find out why Russians lie so much. I found that the Russian language is highly contextualised. The listener or reader is expected to see and understand the context. I.e. look beyond the lies and the posturing. In the light of this, do you see that the hidden message in his speech, could be that he is first telling us he is being honest, the West has halted his expansion plans, he is under pressure, and asking for cooperation from the West?

I'm not saying I believe any of it or that it should be taken at face value. Quite the opposite. But it's an interesting development - hidden nuanced messages. Is this the next level of his maskirovka? Or is he fighting for his life? Or both?

I think we're not far off a tipping point with the war where Putin's authority will to be undermined when the
new military hardware starts coming along for the West. A stark realisation that the war cannot be won. A desperate search for a way out.
I hope I'm right.

 

[Silverhatch]

Given that the previous Eastern Bloc alliance (so beloved of Putin and his acolytes) was signed in Warsaw, you can see why Poland are so twitchy about the KGB apparatchik on the other side of Ukraine.

 

[Mellotron]

NATO still decided to expand towards Russia

I think this is the interesting part of your post. It speaks of NATO as if it is one sentient being, who CHOSE to go towards Russia. That is very much the Russian narrative, this paranoia about a faceless giant force that is poised to invade them at any moment.

I don't see it that way. I see it as countries who were near Russia and - understandably - feeling threatened by it, wanting to join a defensive alliance. I think that's reasonable?

 

[papachris]

As a Brit living in Estonia I know how incredibly brave this small nation were to regain their independence. Checkout 'the singing revolution' on YouTube to understand what happened. Also 'the human chain'. My partner was 20yrs old at this time and joined in the protest concerts.
It was incredibly important that they joined the EU and NATO at that time.

 

[Dibdab]

Russia - or to be more precise Putinism - believes Ukraine should not exist. That Ukraine should be part of Russia. He said that prior to the invasion, and he meant it. Putin believes all the former nations in the Soviet sphere of influence, should be a part of Russia.

Giving Russia a sense of victory will not save more years of bloodshed. On the contrary, it will achieve the direct, polar opposite. More bloodshed. It will embolden Putin (or Putin's successor) to attack other nations that Russia believes should be a part of Russia.

A sense of defeat will not stop Russian imperialism either, but it will slow it down. Make it think twice.

What - may - stop Russian imperialism is an impenetrable defensive barrier, a defensive alliance called NATO. The 'expansion' of NATO was cited as a reason for the invasion. This is an important lesson of history. It is a direct reason why Sweden and Finland have joined NATO since the invasion.

So how long do you propose we fight a war that probably can't be won? At what cost to the Ukrainian people and us? Easy to be brave and war hungry sitting in cosy safe East Sussex lapping up media war rhetoric pretending things are going better than they really are. Its ridiculous to claim as fact that there isn't a negotiation to be had.

 

[essbee1]

So how long do you propose we fight a war that probably can't be won? At what cost to the Ukrainian people and us? Easy to be brave and war hungry sitting in cosy safe East Sussex lapping up media war rhetoric pretending things are going better than they really are. Its ridiculous to claim as fact that there isn't a negotiation to be had.

Bit below the belt that Dibdab. Besides which you said that Ukraine look like losing.

 

[Eric the meek]

So how long do you propose we fight a war that probably can't be won? At what cost to the Ukrainian people and us? Easy to be brave and war hungry sitting in cosy safe East Sussex lapping up media war rhetoric pretending things are going better than they really are. Its ridiculous to claim as fact that there isn't a negotiation to be had.

You sound bitter. It didn't take long for that to happen.

You also haven't been paying attention. Several people on here have relatives in the occupied part of Ukraine. A five minute conversation with one of relatives, might disabuse you of your entrenched views.

The irony of your own post sails way over your head. You accuse me of being brave and war hungry in cosy safe East Sussex, while at the same time advocating surrender, on behalf of millions of Ukrainians, negotiating away their freedom, and abandoning them to permanent subjugation to Russia.

 

[Eric the meek]

Explosion in Russian-occupied Luhansk.

Other sources say it is an oil depot.

 

[Sirnormangall]

I’m in a hotel overseas with only Aljazeerah as a tv news source. It’s interesting (and disappointing) to see a number of western pundit apologists for Putin. Apparently, according to them, Putin has no intention of invading any other countries- Ukraine is a special case…..so that’s all right then.

 

[sparkie]

I’m in a hotel overseas with only Aljazeerah as a tv news source. It’s interesting (and disappointing) to see a number of western pundit apologists for Putin. Apparently, according to them, Putin has no intention of invading any other countries- Ukraine is a special case…..so that’s all right then.

Chances are they are the same pundits who kept saying there was zero chance Putin would invade in 2022.

 

[jcdenton08]

There must be thousands of active and sleeper hostile assets (spies) operating on all sides at any one time. The West are at it too, no question. It’s the information game in war times. Loose lips sink ships!!!

 

[raymondo]

I’m in a hotel overseas with only Aljazeerah as a tv news source. It’s interesting (and disappointing) to see a number of western pundit apologists for Putin. Apparently, according to them, Putin has no intention of invading any other countries- Ukraine is a special case…..so that’s all right then.

Georgia and the Baltics can rest easy then...

 

[raymondo]

I absolutely do see that, and agree with you entirely. Putin won't stop until he is stopped. But seeing that clearly, should not be a barrier to gleaning other information that may be less clear from speeches.

A few days ago I was down a rabbit hole, trying to find out why Russians lie so much. I found that the Russian language is highly contextualised. The listener or reader is expected to see and understand the context. I.e. look beyond the lies and the posturing. In the light of this, do you see that the hidden message in his speech, could be that he is first telling us he is being honest, the West has halted his expansion plans, he is under pressure, and asking for cooperation from the West?

I'm not saying I believe any of it or that it should be taken at face value. Quite the opposite. But it's an interesting development - hidden nuanced messages. Is this the next level of his maskirovka? Or is he fighting for his life? Or both?

As an amusing aside...I can confirm that I am expected to understand the context when Mrs Raymondo speaks to me (she is, as you know, Ukrainian, but fluent in both Russian and Ukrainian). e.g. a simple: " I am meeting her for coffee". No woman has been mentioned in conversation for 72 hours but I am absolutely expected to know who 'her' is ...and I'm the idiot if I don't!

 

[Eric the meek]

As an amusing aside...I can confirm that I am expected to understand the context when Mrs Raymondo speaks to me (she is, as you know, Ukrainian, but fluent in both Russian and Ukrainian). e.g. a simple: " I am meeting her for coffee". No woman has been mentioned in conversation for 72 hours but I am absolutely expected to know who 'her' is ...and I'm the idiot if I don't!

If it's any consolation, I suffer from the same kind of thing.

I ask my wife 'do you want a coffee?', and I get an answer back like 'I'm just going up for a shower'.

I'm left wondering: does that mean she does want a coffee, or doesn't want a coffee, or wants one after her shower? I need clear, explicit instructions.

 

[Shropshire Seagull]

If it's any consolation, I suffer from the same kind of thing.

I ask my wife 'do you want a coffee?', and I get an answer back like 'I'm just going up for a shower'.

I'm left wondering: does that mean she does want a coffee, or doesn't want a coffee, or wants one after her shower? I need clear, explicit instructions.

Well, that's what happens when you dabble in the overseas market.

I bet RDZ has similar translation issues with his Spanish, German, Japanese, Portuguese, English, etc. speaking players ....

 

[Eric the meek]

Well, that's what happens when you dabble in the overseas market.

I bet RDZ has similar translation issues with his Spanish, German, Japanese, Portuguese, English, etc. speaking players ....

But she's not from overseas. Just the third world. Accrington, Lancashire.

(I'm going to be in so much trouble if she reads this).

 

[raymondo]

I absolutely do see that, and agree with you entirely. Putin won't stop until he is stopped. But seeing that clearly, should not be a barrier to gleaning other information that may be less clear from speeches.

A few days ago I was down a rabbit hole, trying to find out why Russians lie so much. I found that the Russian language is highly contextualised. The listener or reader is expected to see and understand the context. I.e. look beyond the lies and the posturing. In the light of this, do you see that the hidden message in his speech, could be that he is first telling us he is being honest, the West has halted his expansion plans, he is under pressure, and asking for cooperation from the West?

I'm not saying I believe any of it or that it should be taken at face value. Quite the opposite. But it's an interesting development - hidden nuanced messages. Is this the next level of his maskirovka? Or is he fighting for his life? Or both?

Partner jokes aside (I have many other domestic examples along similar lines) I think the "nuanced messaging" you highlight can be very important - it's certainly a big difference in communication techniques between the cultures.