[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[peterward]

Most likely scenario I think is some sort of frozen conflict in Ukraine which rumbles on for ages but neither side makes significant gains, but they continue to suffer horrible losses, until a new de facto border is arrived at and in the years to come agreed on by succeeding national leaders.

Ukraine probably will join NATO at some stage. Russia, I personally think won't have the will or the strength to take further bites out of Ukraine knowing that a NATO response is likely, but will continue to be a malign but diminishing actor on the world stage

It wont be like that imho.

To take the two sides individually, Russia under Putin wont stop now, Putin needs the war and now the war economy to sustain him in power, there is no going back to any type of status quo, as the days of business as usual are gone, at least until there is a new Russian leader pursuing a new direction. Its likely that when Putin falls, it will be an attempt at another hardliner, but if his whole house of cards falls with him, any new leader would most likley try and distance themselves from "Putins war" throw him under the bus and do what is required to get Russia back into the global economy, that would definitely mean Ukraine within its 1991 borders.

An article I read a few days ago headline stated. "Russian cannot afford to lose, but they also cannot afford to win". It literally cannot financially, and locked in perpetuity out much of the global trade/finance system under sanctions.

As long as Putin is alive, he will never settle for a frozen conflict, he wants all of Ukraine.

On the Ukraine side, You need to understand Ukrainian society, there is simply no chance any Ukrainian leader could concede territory now, under any circumstance and remain leader. It would be akin to Netanyahu trying to give a chunk of Jerusalem away. He'd be dead long before that was signed, as would Zelensky or the next guy.

The level of societal outrage, violation and hatred towards Russia is something few will truly comprehend. The Ukrainains will fight with rocks and sticks before they signed any agreement on the moving of a border, conceding a CM or abandoning their people into the Russian fascist world. Not Zelensky, not the next leader.

Ukraines will to fight doesnt depend on the US or west, only its military capability. They may one day lose and be subjugated, that wont ever come voluntarily from a deal.

Nobody but nobody trusts anything the Russians say or promise, and there's been too many murdered, raped and died for their country for any deals with Moscow.

Even though its currently very difficult with the Kremlin wing of the Republican party holding up aid, I am still optimistic that Ukraine will return to it 1991 borders. I dont believe Russia or Putin can sustain this indefinitely.

 

[The Clamp]

Putin will never settle for some appeasement territory and no way Ukraine will ever sign away territory.

This will be ongoing until one or the other has total victory.

The world can not let Putin be the victor.

We should have had boots on the ground two years ago.

 

[Eric the meek]

Putin will never settle for some appeasement territory and no way Ukraine will ever sign away territory.

This will be ongoing until one or the other has total victory.

The world can not let Putin be the victor.

We should have had boots on the ground two years ago.

I remember a video by Jonathan Fink, who runs the 'Silicon Curtain' Youtube channel. He likened Putin to water, seeping into Europe. If by any chance you block one leak, he will soon find another way. He is relentless.

He observed that Putin, being an autocrat, can plan years, or decades ahead, because he knows he, or his appointed successor, will still be in power.

Fink concluded that Russia operates in a different timeframe, hundreds of years ago, in a time when invading and defeating foreign countries was quite acceptable. Normal even.

Appeasement is not the answer. All that will achieve is your nation being subsumed into the Russian sphere of influence, much like Belarus.

 

[peterward]

I remember a video by Jonathan Fink, who runs the 'Silicon Curtain' Youtube channel. He likened Putin to water, seeping into Europe. If by any chance you block one leak, he will soon find another way. He is relentless.

He observed that Putin, being an autocrat, can plan years, or decades ahead, because he knows he, or his appointed successor, will still be in power.

Fink concluded that Russia operates in a different timeframe, hundreds of years ago, in a time when invading and defeating foreign countries was quite acceptable. Normal even.

Appeasement is not the answer. All that will achieve is your nation being subsumed into the Russian sphere of influence, much like Belarus.

Agree and thats why Ukraine must be armed to win ASAP.

No deal is worth the ink with Russia. They would just use any pause to rearm, learn and go again.

And unless theyre defeated this isn't going to go away it just going to get worse and spread wider. Moldova next imho then Baltics.

With each day we dither and delay the costs of defeating Putin rise. People like Olaf Scholz just dont get Putin or ever learn from their persistant mistakes, each time they make signals or take steps they say are to "avoid escalation", Putin sees that as weakness and escalates.

 

[peterward]

Huge News. will Aid to Ukraine now be passed?

 

[US Seagull]

Huge News. will Aid to Ukraine now be passed?

In a sensible, normal political system? Yeah. But Johnson isn't afraid of President Biden, or Chuck Schumer. He is deathly afraid of Donald Trump.

 

[A1X]

We should have had boots on the ground two years ago.

NATO is a defensive alliance for members. It shouldn’t be engaged in expeditionary adventures into other countries, invited or otherwise. That’s the Putin narrative for what NATO is.

 

[The Clamp]

They should make an exception. Who gives a fig what Putin thinks?

He’s Hitler.

 

[essbee1]

They should make an exception. Who gives a fig what Putin thinks?

He’s Hitler.

This. Screw the political ramifications. stop this fuc***g lunatic now.

 

[The Clamp]

This will end up with troops going in. There is no other way it can go. Whether it’s in Ukraine or the next European country he invades.

We should have this fight now. On our terms. Not when he’s annexed Poland and raped and murdered another country’s people.

We tried that before and it didn’t work out too well.

 

[A1X]

They should make an exception. Who gives a fig what Putin thinks?

He’s Hitler.

Why should they make an exception for this war and not others? Should we also wade in in Gaza? Or Yemen? Or Sudan? Or Pakistan? Or Somalia?

NATO should have admitted Ukraine long ago, probably in 2014 in exchange for reneging their claim on Crimea (countries with ongoing border disputes are barred from membership, which is why Georgia have been denied in the past and why the Balkans largely remain outside the Alliance). But they didn’t, and as such it is correct under their own agreement they don’t involve themselves militarily.

Which is not to say we shouldn’t give them all the weapons they want. Hopefully the post above about the Congress news can help facilitate that, and I am confident that (unlike some I could mention in the west in the next 18 months or so) whatever the result the UK will be maintaining support for as long as it takes.

 

[essbee1]

This will end up with troops going in. There is no other way it can go. Whether it’s in Ukraine or the next European country he invades.

We should have this fight now. On our terms. Not when he’s annexed Poland and raped and murdered another country’s people.

We tried that before and it didn’t work out too well.

Hitler mk.2. The only way it will end if NATO goes in 100%. f*** WW3

 

[A1X]

This. Screw the political ramifications. stop this fuc***g lunatic now.

And if NATO walked into Ukraine tomorrow and, a fortnight from now, had cleared the country of Russian troops and blown up the Kerch bridge, how would Putin react to that? Sit back and say “jolly good show, old chaps, you certainly had the beating of me there”?

 

[essbee1]

And if NATO walked into Ukraine tomorrow and, a fortnight from now, had cleared the country of Russian troops and blown up the Kerch bridge, how would Putin react to that? Sit back and say “jolly good show, old chaps, you certainly had the beating of me there”?

That would be 100% fine.

 

[A1X]

Hitler mk.2. The only way it will end if NATO goes in 100%. f*** WW3

 

[The Clamp]

Why should they make an exception for this war and not others? Should we also wade in in Gaza? Or Yemen? Or Sudan? Or Pakistan? Or Somalia?

NATO should have admitted Ukraine long ago, probably in 2014 in exchange for reneging their claim on Crimea (countries with ongoing border disputes are barred from membership, which is why Georgia have been denied in the past and why the Balkans largely remain outside the Alliance). But they didn’t, and as such it is correct under their own agreement they don’t involve themselves militarily.

Which is not to say we shouldn’t give them all the weapons they want. Hopefully the post above about the Congress news can help facilitate that, and I am confident that (unlike some I could mention in the west in the next 18 months or so) whatever the result the UK will be maintaining support for as long as it takes.

Putin is a direct threat to European peace and our way of life.

Boots on the ground.

 

[essbee1]

So be it my friend.

 

[A1X]

Putin is a direct threat to European peace and our way of life.

Boots on the ground.

We have boots on the ground. In NATO countries. That’s the deal.

If Putin tries entering Poland he’s going to find his troops dumped very unceremoniously back on his side of the border in very short order. Same in the Baltic states. And, soon, Finland.

 

[The Clamp]

Doesn’t have to be NATO. We can act independently if we wish.

 

[A1X]

So be it my friend.

You might have a death wish. I don’t.