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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)



Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,457
I don't believe that European countries are currently capable of scheming on this level.

Scholz is looking after his arse electorally. So is Macron.

There's no deeper plan
After having seen the reports of allied nations rejecting Macron's idea of troops to Ukraine, I'm inclined to think Macron was acting unilaterally.
 






Nobby Cybergoat

Well-known member
Jul 19, 2021
8,754
Don't forget that in amongst the grotesque insularity and outrageous nationalism, that Russia has deeply impressive and highly courageous young people willing to speak for it's future.

 












peterward

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 11, 2009
12,378
Has anyone considered whether the discussions (at national level) around putting Nato boots on the ground in Ukraine, may be co-ordinated?

Macron seems to be in favour. Then Scholz says no. Then US, UK and Italy say no. It's all good. France steps out of line and the rest rein him in.
That may be how it happened. But I'm left wondering if there is an element of 'forward guidance' in there. A veiled warning to Putin.

After all, 'Nato expansion' and talk of Ukraine joining Nato were cited by Putin as the reasons for the invasion of Ukraine. Putin is afraid of Nato, even though we know it is a defensive organisation. So why wouldn't we use that knowledge? Putin has been issuing threats to half the world for years.
Scholz is an unmitigated disaster for Europe, he is the modern day Neville Chamberlain.

It's pretty obvious that NATO boots on ground is unlikely but I think Macron is right to suggest its not ruled out and to have a bit of strategic ambiguity. It may give Russia pause for thought.


Signalling weakness and ruling out deterrence is exactly what makes Putin escalate.
 








perth seagull

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
5,487
Olaf Scholz reveals UK soldiers are in Ukraine, helping with the operation of storm shadow long range missiles.
Well done Scholz.

Scholz should've kept his mouth shut and been more like Sergent Schultz:

images-1.jpeg
 




raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,656
Wiltshire
Olaf Scholz reveals UK soldiers are in Ukraine, helping with the operation of storm shadow long range missiles.
Well done Scholz.

We should have just denied it (and Zekenskiy)...why did Sunak confirm it? We're too open in these situations... Putin has to also be fought with denials 🤦🏼‍♂️.
 




raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,656
Wiltshire
Scholz is an unmitigated disaster for Europe, he is the modern day Neville Chamberlain.

It's pretty obvious that NATO boots on ground is unlikely but I think Macron is right to suggest its not ruled out and to have a bit of strategic ambiguity. It may give Russia pause for thought.


Signalling weakness and ruling out deterrence is exactly what makes Putin escalate.
Exactly this. Macron was right (and smart)to say it, and any European leader that publically rules it out is, frankly, an idiot.
 




Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,457
Exactly this. Macron was right (and smart)to say it, and any European leader that publically rules it out is, frankly, an idiot.
I would imagine Macron did it to wrongfoot Putin, and to leave him wondering.
As you say, any leaders who publically rule it out are giving Putin the wrong signal; one of division. A signal that he can continue his empire building.

Why Scholz revealed that UK soldiers are already in Ukraine, only Scholz knows. I find his actions incomprehensible.

Edit: @peterward, I appear to have said what you said in post #14152....
 
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raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,656
Wiltshire
I would imagine Macron did it to wrongfoot Putin, and to leave him wondering.
As you say, any leaders who publically rule it out are giving Putin the wrong signal; one of division. A signal that he can continue his empire building.

Why Scholz revealed that UK soldiers are already in Ukraine, only Scholz knows. I find his actions incomprehensible.
Yes, pretty incomprehensible from Scholz ,- maybe he was appealing to the appeasement section of his electorate,as in "look, we must be careful not to escalate, UK and France have already taken the first step".
I was listening to Bill Browder on Times Radio just now, and he's saying a stronger message/action right now would be to use the confiscated Russian billions for the direct benefit of Ukraine and weapons purchase and supply... then NATO troops on the ground wouldn't be required anyhow.
 


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,457
Yes, pretty incomprehensible from Scholz ,- maybe he was appealing to the appeasement section of his electorate,as in "look, we must be careful not to escalate, UK and France have already taken the first step".
I was listening to Bill Browder on Times Radio just now, and he's saying a stronger message/action right now would be to use the confiscated Russian billions for the direct benefit of Ukraine and weapons purchase and supply... then NATO troops on the ground wouldn't be required anyhow.
Yes, that makes sense.

Whatever we did, or didn't do, Putin would twist it to his advantage.

In his annual speech to the nation this morning, he said the usual stuff. The west is causing an arms race. The west is trying to bring discord to Russia. He warned the west against sending troops to Ukraine etc.

But I did notice this:

'Putin extends cultural policies to seized Ukrainian region' - just the Donbas. Why only the Donbas I wonder?

 


Nobby Cybergoat

Well-known member
Jul 19, 2021
8,754
Sholtz has been a disaster yes. To a degree he is just reflection German reticence which I understand in an emotional sense given the history at play here, but not a logical one.

But giving up an intelligence and PR coup to Putin. Jesus wept. We need to be presenting a united front. Europe and the west needs to massively up it's game to defeat Putin and Putinism
 




raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,656
Wiltshire
Yes, that makes sense.

Whatever we did, or didn't do, Putin would twist it to his advantage.

In his annual speech to the nation this morning, he said the usual stuff. The west is causing an arms race. The west is trying to bring discord to Russia. He warned the west against sending troops to Ukraine etc.

But I did notice this:

'Putin extends cultural policies to seized Ukrainian region' - just the Donbas. Why only the Donbas I wonder?

Hmmm... maybe the cultural landmarks have already been rebuilt in Crimea 🤔odd though.
Nice to hear how concerned he is about climate change 🤦🏼‍♂️.
 


Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
32,520
Brighton
We will have to disagree on that one. Putin definitely does not want NATO to come in.

He is banking on NATO staying out .

If we had put in a display of force two years ago, I strongly doubt Putin would have crossed the border.

He exploits weakness. We are being weak. He is exploiting it.

He would shit himself if we called his bluff.

As I said, doesn’t have to be NATO.
If we called his bluff and he backed down, he would be ousted from power and probably dead within weeks if not days. It would be one of the most cowardly moves from a Russian leader in centuries.

He's in a position now with no off ramp. Any escalation he is absolutely forced to match.

What do you think would happen to him if he ran away from NATO with his tail between his legs?
 


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