[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Eric the meek]

Sounds great ! Putin being a man of his word, what could possibly go wrong ?

We should obviously maintain our 100% distrust of Putin, especially where nukes are concerned !

Who knows what his agenda is. Perhaps he has seen the cost of developing and maintaining nukes, and realised he can no longer afford them.

But there is one observation to be made. The language may be changing. I'm not suggesting we should believe a word of it of course. I'm just suggesting the language may be changing, from threat/defiance to something else.

I have no doubt his actions will be disingenuous.

 

[raymondo]

An agenda beyond Ukraine emerges?

I saw a report suggesting Putin had mentioned including some kind of deal on nuclear arms.

Here's a bit more on it, or possibly from the same source.

Putin bullshit.
"I promise to get rid of 20% of our nuclear arsenal, if you let me keep 20% of Ukraine,"
Oh do f##k off Putin.

 

[Eric the meek]

Putin bullshit.
"I promise to get rid of 20% of our nuclear arsenal, if you let me keep 20% of Ukraine,"
Oh do f##k off Putin.

Is he continuing with his maskirovka? Change the subject. Talk about something else. Move the goalposts. Distract. Delay.

I don't think he wants peace. He wants to play for time. But I'm not sure that time is in his favour.

 

[Eric the meek]

'Putin tells Russians to expect a long war' - ISW.

Watch Jqke Broe from 17:00 onwards.

Edit: And they're off ! The first Russian to be scapegoated is Nabiullina. Watch from 17:30.

 

[raymondo]

'Putin tells Russians to expect a long war' - ISW.

Watch Jqke Broe from 17:00 onwards.

Edit: And they're off ! The first Russian to be scapegoated is Nabiullina. Watch from 17:30.

Nabiullina is in an impossible situation. She didn't want the job but Putin made her keep it.
Solvyov (spelling?) bashes her publicly, he has zero responsibility for anything, and probably gets paid a ton more than she does. He also says the 'solution is obvious ' but won't of course say what that is.
He also of course praises the esteemed leader to the heavens ... for 'his set tasks ' being so straightforward.
She must go to her apartment every evening either seething or terrified.

 

[raymondo]

Is he continuing with his maskirovka? Change the subject. Talk about something else. Move the goalposts. Distract. Delay.

I don't think he wants peace. He wants to play for time. But I'm not sure that time is in his favour.

Yes, indeed. I hope the Trump administration addresses the two subjects (Ukraine, and nuclear weapons) separately, and let's hope Trump is made to understand, by Kellog et al, that any promise from Putin is worthless.

 

[fly high]

Jesus Christ. You 'won' by 87%. Isn't that enough?

Do you really have to persecute the Belarusian relatives of the participants of a rally in Warsaw? Really?

Learned st his master's feet

 

[fly high]

An agenda beyond Ukraine emerges?

I saw a report suggesting Putin had mentioned including some kind of deal on nuclear arms.

Here's a bit more on it, or possibly from the same source.

My concern if nuclear weapons become part of the deal Trump would trade off Ukraine to the benefit of US. Could be why Putin is suggesting it, can then sell it all as a win.

 

[raymondo]

My concern if nuclear weapons become part of the deal Trump would trade off Ukraine to the benefit of US. Could be why Putin is suggesting it, can then sell it all as a win.

Yes, it's a concern, I just hope the people around Trump are smart enough.
Any trade off around Ukraine is just wrong.

 

[raymondo]

Blimey....profits far more important than defense of Europe. Follow the €s ....
Thank goodness for the investigation.

 

[Eric the meek]

My concern if nuclear weapons become part of the deal Trump would trade off Ukraine to the benefit of US. Could be why Putin is suggesting it, can then sell it all as a win.

We could be concerned about a thousand other things that Putin could try and include in the deal, to widen the argument, delay the peace, wait for Ukrainian resolve to weaken, and the willingness of the west to arm Ukraine, to wither on the vine.

But the benefit to Putin of introducing nuclear weapons in any deal, is the word 'nuclear'. He knows it has a special effect on the west. This is why, a few months ago, when someone counted up the number of times he had used a nuclear threat against the west, he found it had happened 165 times.

 

[Eric the meek]

Blimey....profits far more important than defense of Europe. Follow the €s ....
Thank goodness for the investigation.

As with the shadow fleet, it does seem to take a long time for nations and individual firms to get the message on sanctions.

I don't know what the answer is, apart from stricter enforcement of them. Close down the offending company and sanction the directors, preventing them from doing it again?

 

[Triggaaar]

But the benefit to Putin of introducing nuclear weapons in any deal, is the word 'nuclear'. He knows it has a special effect on the west. This is why, a few months ago, when someone counted up the number of times he had used a nuclear threat against the west, he found it had happened 165 times.

My takeaway from that is his nuke spouting has very little effect.

Ukraine aren't going to sit idly by while PooTrump come up with a shit deal. They're in constant contact with Trump's people who will know that a deal that shaft's Ukraine is a non-starter.

Given that Ukraine haven't needed to mobilise their 18-25 year-olds (which should be over 2 million males), I don't see where they're supposed to be struggling to keep this war going. Russia also won't run out of people who could fight, but Russia's issue is persuading them to fight, whilst their economy crashes.

 

[Eric the meek]

My takeaway from that is his nuke spouting has very little effect.

Ukraine aren't going to sit idly by while PooTrump come up with a shit deal. They're in constant contact with Trump's people who will know that a deal that shaft's Ukraine is a non-starter.

Given that Ukraine haven't needed to mobilise their 18-25 year-olds (which should be over 2 million males), I don't see where they're supposed to be struggling to keep this war going. Russia also won't run out of people who could fight, but Russia's issue is persuading them to fight, whilst their economy crashes.

There have been many unfathomable decisions coming out of Russia for a long time. But the fact that Putin still tries nuclear threats suggests he is devoid of ideas; he just keeps on carrying out the gangster behaviour. He will have been told long ago, that if he deploys a nuke, he will have signed his death warrant. Meanwhile, Ukrainians have a pragmatic view of the threats: 'How much worse can it get?'.

Recent experience tells us that Ukraine will carry on with its operations, while the peace negotiations may or may not go on in the background.

Paul Warburg has an interesting discussion about the difference in Ukraine's and Russia's approach to enlisting 18-25 year olds. Link below:

 

[Triggaaar]

Paul Warburg has an interesting discussion about the difference in Ukraine's and Russia's approach to enlisting 18-25 year olds. Link below:

Yes I've watched that which is part of the reason I was musing that they haven't had to recruit them yet.

Ukraine lost over 2.5m soldiers in WW2. Are we really to think that they'll give up the fight against Russia when they've lost less than 100,000?

 

[Eric the meek]

Yes I've watched that which is part of the reason I was musing that they haven't had to recruit them yet.

Ukraine lost over 2.5m soldiers in WW2. Are we really to think that they'll give up the fight against Russia when they've lost less than 100,000?

No. Ukraine obviously wants the war to end, but only with a 'just and lasting peace'. As I understand it, Zelensky has made his position clear to the Trump team.

 

[Sirnormangall]

As with the shadow fleet, it does seem to take a long time for nations and individual firms to get the message on sanctions.

I don't know what the answer is, apart from stricter enforcement of them. Close down the offending company and sanction the directors, preventing them from doing it again?

Bitterly disappointing though not surprising. Let’s hope those governments are suitably embarrassed to take action against the companies - though I won’t hold my breath.

 

[Eric the meek]

Bitterly disappointing though not surprising. Let’s hope those governments are suitably embarrassed to take action against the companies - though I won’t hold my breath.

No convictions secured for Russian sanction breaches, says NCA

Sanctions were introduced after the Crimea annexation in 2014 and the wider invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Eric the meek]

The governor of Smolensk region next to Belarus, reports an alleged drone attack on a nuclear energy facility.

 

[Eric the meek]

An oil refinery has been attacked at Kstovo, Nizhny Novgorod.