[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Eric the meek]

Steve Rosenberg's discussion of Putin's many post-rebellion appearances is below.

He used the title 'Deciphering Vladimir Putin's many appearances since mutiny' but I'm not sure he has deciphered them really.

Deciphering Vladimir Putin's many appearances since mutiny

The Russian president has popped up on TV screens multiple times since last weekend's dramatic events - but to what end?

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Eric the meek]

Back to the ZNPP for a moment. Some of us are concerned about what the Russians might do to it. So I thought I would do some research into the predominant wind direction, which may or may not influence any Russian decision to blow it up.

'The predominant average hourly wind direction in Zaporizhia varies throughout the year.

The wind is most often from the east for 4.4 months, from 28 January to 9 June and for 3.4 months, from 3 September to 16 December, with a peak percentage of 35% on 22 March. The wind is most often from the north for 2.8 months, from 9 June to 3 September, with a peak percentage of 39% on 5 August. The wind is most often from the west for 1.4 months, from 16 December to 28 January, with a peak percentage of 29% on 1 January.'

Zaporizhia Climate, Weather By Month, Average Temperature (Ukraine) - Weather Spark

In Zaporizhia, the summers are warm and mostly clear and the winters are long, freezing, snowy, windy, and mostly cloudy. Over the course of the year, the temperature typically varies from -6°C to 29°C and is rarely below -17°C or above 35°C.

weatherspark.com

Note that the current north-westerlies would take any radiation straight into Russia.

 

[raymondo]

I don't believe the 32,000 number (it's most likely marketing) but hopefully the 000s released will start killing each other and more...

 

[raymondo]

Back to the ZNPP for a moment. Some of us are concerned about what the Russians might do to it. So I thought I would do some research into the predominant wind direction, which may or may not influence any Russian decision to blow it up.

'The predominant average hourly wind direction in Zaporizhia varies throughout the year.

The wind is most often from the east for 4.4 months, from 28 January to 9 June and for 3.4 months, from 3 September to 16 December, with a peak percentage of 35% on 22 March. The wind is most often from the north for 2.8 months, from 9 June to 3 September, with a peak percentage of 39% on 5 August. The wind is most often from the west for 1.4 months, from 16 December to 28 January, with a peak percentage of 29% on 1 January.'

Zaporizhia Climate, Weather By Month, Average Temperature (Ukraine) - Weather Spark

In Zaporizhia, the summers are warm and mostly clear and the winters are long, freezing, snowy, windy, and mostly cloudy. Over the course of the year, the temperature typically varies from -6°C to 29°C and is rarely below -17°C or above 35°C.

weatherspark.com

Note that the current north-westerlies would take any radiation straight into Russia.

Hmmm...but will cross Ukrainian territory and occupied citizens on the way sadly (I know you know that).
I wonder what the US may have said to Russia if they blow the cooling ponds? I can't imagine they've been silent about it.

 

[Triggaaar]

Note that the current north-westerlies would take any radiation straight into Russia.

According to your post, the wind for the next few months is mostly from the north - it doesn't mention west for this time of year?

 

[peterward]

On the nuclear plant. I think Biden needs to come out, with other world leaders, stand on a stage and say in no uncertain terms what the consequences of this would be.

And the individuals carrying out the act, they need to know what this would mean as well

Hmmm...but will cross Ukrainian territory and occupied citizens on the way sadly (I know you know that).
I wonder what the US may have said to Russia if they blow the cooling ponds? I can't imagine they've been silent about it.

It was a week ago, but Senators Lindsey Graham (Rep) and Richard Blumenthal (Dem) already introduced bipartisan legislation bill that would define any form of nuclear radiation on a NATO nation a breach of article 5.

Tweet is available. Just click link.

 

[Eric the meek]

According to your post, the wind for the next few months is mostly from the north - it doesn't mention west for this time of year?

Ah, yes. I did say 'current'. What I didn't say was that I looked at windy.com to find the wind direction right now!

Windy as forecasted

Wind map and weather forecast

www.windy.com

Right now, you can see the wind is from the west at Zap, but veers to the NW as it goes into the Russian occupied territories and then into the Rostov and Krasnodar areas.

My previous post was about the predominant winds.

 

[raymondo]

Steve Rosenberg's discussion of Putin's many post-rebellion appearances is below.

He used the title 'Deciphering Vladimir Putin's many appearances since mutiny' but I'm not sure he has deciphered them really.

Deciphering Vladimir Putin's many appearances since mutiny

The Russian president has popped up on TV screens multiple times since last weekend's dramatic events - but to what end?

www.bbc.co.uk

Not only that @Eric the meek I'm pretty sure the Putin in the final photo, at a business conversation, up close to other humans and doodling Sponge Bob, is also the body double. Checked out the ears on @peterward 's post 11906, and (unless I've mixed them up haha...) he's the double with that internal ear shape plus a small greyish skin patch centre left cheek. And...Putin would never want to be seen doing something frivolous, such as doodling...genocide is far too serious a matter for doodling.
That'll be the double's overtime bonus gone this month.
ALSO, a bit poor from Rosenberg failing to call out the double (from behaviour as well as features) - maybe he's been warned he'll be kicked out of Moscow if he calls it out 🤔.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

It was a week ago, but Senators Lindsey Graham (Rep) and Richard Blumenthal (Dem) already introduced bipartisan legislation bill that would define any form of nuclear radiation on a NATO nation a breach of article 5.

Tweet is available. Just click link.

I know. But I'm saying Biden should be saying this. Ultimately the decision on what would happen next would be his, not that of Congress.

If they do this it's the most serious threat to global conflict since the Cuban missile crisis.

Effective deterrence is our best chance

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Not only that @Eric the meek I'm pretty sure the Putin in the final photo, at a business conversation, up close to other humans and doodling Sponge Bob, is also the body double. Checked out the ears on @Peter Ward 's post 11906, and (unless I've mixed them up haha...) he's the double with that internal ear shape plus a small greyish skin patch centre left cheek. And...Putin would never want to be seen doing something frivolous, such as doodling...genocide is far too serious a matter for doodling.
That'll be the double's overtime bonus gone this month.
ALSO, a bit poor from Rosenberg failing to call out the double (from behaviour as well as features) - maybe he's been warned he'll be kicked out of Moscow if he calls it out .

I found this a bizarre article. At least put the two pictures next to each other to give readers a chance.

I understand the path the BBC is taking. It can't just be rehashing random twitter rumours as news. But the facial differences of these two men are striking

 

[Algernon]

I don't believe the 32,000 number (it's most likely marketing) but hopefully the 000s released will start killing each other and more...

Each one looks confident and enthused.

 

[raymondo]

I found this a bizarre article. At least put the two pictures next to each other to give readers a chance.

I understand the path the BBC is taking. It can't just be rehashing random twitter rumours as news. But the facial differences of these two men are striking

Exactly as you say - I'm also getting fed up with the BBC'S representation of this issue. Call it out!

 

[Eric the meek]

Exactly as you say - I'm also getting fed up with the BBC'S representation of this issue. Call it out!

I would imagine the BBC Verify team are working on it. It's a very interesting story in its own right, never mind the war.

I would also imagine the reason why they can't call it out, is because they can't verify it. It wouldn't look good having just set up a team called BBC Verify, if they went to print, accusing Putin of having one or more doubles, and it subsequently turns out they haven't verified it ! They could get slaughtered.

Rosenberg's article seems to hint at it in several places. But as you implied previously, the BBC may have decided not to put their presence in Moscow at risk.

 

[Eric the meek]

Sky's latest report:

Ukraine war latest: Ukraine 'preparing for nuclear explosion' at power plant; Russia cancels major event over 'security concerns'

The situation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant remains "very dangerous", a Ukrainian MP has said. And Russia has cancelled an international air show after attacks inside the country in recent months, according to British intelligence.

news.sky.com

 

[carlzeiss]

Ukrainian writer Victoria Amelina dies after being wounded in Kramatorsk strike

Author who had been working to document Russian war crimes since the invasion was hospitalised with skull fractures after Tuesday’s missile strike

www.theguardian.com

Ukrainian writer Victoria Amelina dies after being wounded in Kramatorsk strike​

Author who had been working to document Russian war crimes since the invasion was hospitalised with skull fractures after Tuesday’s missile strike

 

[Triggaaar]

I would also imagine the reason why they can't call it out, is because they can't verify it. It wouldn't look good having just set up a team called BBC Verify, if they went to print, accusing Putin of having one or more doubles, and it subsequently turns out they haven't verified it !

It's a fact that he has doubles. On an event by event basis, he might not always have one, so they could call out the wrong occasion, but they wouldn't be wrong to say he has doubles.

 

[raymondo]

It's a fact that he has doubles. On an event by event basis, he might not always have one, so they could call out the wrong occasion, but they wouldn't be wrong to say he has doubles.

And the facial/feature differences with one of them seen recently are quite clear: internal ear shape, greyish patch on left cheek. Shouldn't take a whole BBC team long to verify, no?

 

[raymondo]

Seriously...700,000 ... seriously Terrible.

Russia-Ukraine war: 'Putin's henchmen' threatening UK, Britons warned; Moscow's troops reach key Ukrainian city

Russian troops have reached the Ukrainian city of Toretsk, an anchor of Kyiv's defences in the eastern Donetsk region. Its capture could bring closer the prospect of Moscow securing the entire Donbas. Meanwhile, the MI5 boss has warned Russia wants to create "mayhem" on UK streets.

news.sky.com

 

[GT49er]

Putin to speak to Chinese, Indian leaders in latest summit​

President Putin will speak with Chinese and Indian leadership this week in his first summit since the Wagner rebellion.
A virtual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, set to take place tomorrow, will see Vladimir Putin speak with President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi - with the Russian leader given the opportunity to show he is still in control following the rebellion that rocked his premiership last week.

India and China have proven important allies to Russia since its invasion of Ukraine, with the two major world powers often communicating with Moscow after significant events in the conflict, and continuing significant trade between the nations after Western-imposed sanctions limited the Kremlin's economic options.


South Africa was thrown out of the Commonwealth when it's policies and behaviour became anathema to rest of the Commonwealth - and indeed to the reset of the civilised world. Isn't it about time India was at least suspended?

 

[Eric the meek]

And the facial/feature differences with one of them seen recently are quite clear: internal ear shape, greyish patch on left cheek. Shouldn't take a whole BBC team long to verify, no?

Full disclosure - I believe Putin uses doubles.

So how hard can it be to verify Putin uses doubles? Well, jolly hard actually. I'm not talking about putting forward evidence, or claiming it's a fact. I'm talking about actually proving it. Beyond any and all doubt.

Facial recognition software might be the way to go. But that can be open to all kinds of challenges to its validity. How do you know it works? How do you know it works 100% of the time? Do you test and measure its performance against other people with doppelgangers, all with different ears?

Then there's DNA sampling from Putin at various events. I'm guessing that there might be problems with this approach. If Putin got wind of it, he could pick and choose his events, and simply not use his doubles and quietly 'retire' them. Even if you could get near enough Putin to take a quick sample of blood, that might be a career-ending move for a DNA scientist.

The BBC Verify team face their stiffest challenge.