[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[sparkie]

What would happen if Ukraine officially became part of NATO, for argument's sake say on Jan 1st 2023.
Would we simply then say to Prickin: 'one more missile or attack in Ukraine by you and we'll consider
that an attack on NATO'?

I'm pretty certain Putin would get his mate in Hungary to veto it.

 

[sparkie]

No, I am quite clear. After the events of 2014 Donetsk and Luhansk became breakaway republics, obviously supported by Russia, who did send people to support the breakaway militia. Periodic shelling of Donetsk continued by the Ukrainian side right up to the start of this conflict this year. This is from people who lived there. They left there around two years ago to live in Kharkiv. None of this, of course, in any way justifies the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, it is important to be clear about facts.

That's a fair post - although of course the Russians were also shelling areas outside the 2 people's republics all the way along the contact line, so it wasn't one sided.

I also think it is fair to recognise that there was some support in the LPR and DPR for independence. It's a little foolish to think every single citizen wanted to remain as part of Ukraine.

All that being said - if Russia hadn't sent it's "little green men" into Crimea and Donbas in 2014 then the situation now would be radically different and history would have taken an alternate course.

 

[Theatre of Trees]

Worth 16 minutes of your time

 

[Weststander]

Think there is slightly more to it than Russian soldiers, there were clearly elements of Ukraine that did not want to be associated with Ukraine and preferred Russia, not surprising given their closeness geographically and that ethnically there are many Russian in these areas who had moved them prior to 1991. How many these numbered is difficult to assess and impossible now given the mess. Putin exploited these pockets - same as he did in Cechnia and Georgia to justify his ambition to rebuilt the Russian empire. The Russians were genuinely surprised when what were perceived as Russian cities e.g. Mauripol and Odessa did not join their side. In Odessa Russian was the primary language, i say 'was' because I am not sure if people do speak it now to enforce Ukrainian solidarity,.

Language didn’t determine people’s feeling of identity, which country they 100% felt part of. Even the overwhelming majority of Russian speakers happily consider themselves Russian-speaking Ukrainians.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...krainians-reject-their-russian-birth-language

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/07/ukraine-russian-speakers/

Pre the invasion, experts on the region often explained this.

 

[Triggaaar]

Think there is slightly more to it than Russian soldiers, there were clearly elements of Ukraine that did not want to be associated with Ukraine and preferred Russia, not surprising given their closeness geographically and that ethnically there are many Russian in these areas who had moved them prior to 1991. How many these numbered is difficult to assess and impossible now given the mess. Putin exploited these pockets - same as he did in Cechnia and Georgia to justify his ambition to rebuilt the Russian empire. The Russians were genuinely surprised when what were perceived as Russian cities e.g. Mauripol and Odessa did not join their side. In Odessa Russian was the primary language, i say 'was' because I am not sure if people do speak it now to enforce Ukrainian solidarity,.

But it's worth remembering that having Russian as your primary language, doesn't mean you want the area you live in to be taken over by Russia. Or if I'm mistaken, England must own half the world.

 

[raymondo]

Think there is slightly more to it than Russian soldiers, there were clearly elements of Ukraine that did not want to be associated with Ukraine and preferred Russia, not surprising given their closeness geographically and that ethnically there are many Russian in these areas who had moved them prior to 1991. How many these numbered is difficult to assess and impossible now given the mess. Putin exploited these pockets - same as he did in Cechnia and Georgia to justify his ambition to rebuilt the Russian empire. The Russians were genuinely surprised when what were perceived as Russian cities e.g. Mauripol and Odessa did not join their side. In Odessa Russian was the primary language, i say 'was' because I am not sure if people do speak it now to enforce Ukrainian solidarity,.

I have read your post a few times and I'm not against it, I do understand what you are saying, but I feel the nuance is a little different, at least from my experience. My wife and step-son are Ukrainian, from a small village in Zaporizhzhia oblast (province). My mother in law comes from Lviv area, close to Western borders and her first language is Ukrainian. My father in law's family are from Russia (Kursk I believe) and moved to Ukraine a generation ago: he speaks mainly Russian. They live in a cooperative farming village, dual language, many Russians moved here some time ago. My wife's primary language was Russian in the village but she is fluent in both. At the village school the main teaching language is Ukrainian (well, it is Ukraine) but Russian was also heavily taught (actually, right now, because it's under Russian occupation, the Russian army are trying to enforce Russian only teaching, and do so with armed soldiers posted in the school...nice...).
In the village shop people would talk in their preferred language, there were zero problems. People would also watch both Russian and Ukrainian TV, and of course debate politics and possible propaganda statements. BUT they considered themselves brothers and sisters, no matter their different heritage. They might debate the % of Russian taught in the schools versus Ukrainian, and they might debate the changes of Ukrainian presidents and policies in recent decades, and they might disagree with each other, just as people disagree in the UK about political parties.
So, yes, some of them might have preferred an association with Russia, but any who felt really strongly about this would have moved to Russia already. I agree that Putin exploited these pockets (as in Georgia etc) but this one Zaporizhzhian farming village was quite happy the way it was, getting along with each other, nobody wanted to be 'rescued'.
We are aware of a couple of local collaborators who have chosen the Russians as the 'winning team'...inevitable, this will always happen. The vast majority are trying to live day by day, playing the game, staying alive, signing where they are told at gunpoint to sign.

 

[Wardy's twin]

I have read your post a few times and I'm not against it, I do understand what you are saying, but I feel the nuance is a little different, at least from my experience. My wife and step-son are Ukrainian, from a small village in Zaporizhzhia oblast (province). My mother in law comes from Lviv area, close to Western borders and her first language is Ukrainian. My father in law's family are from Russia (Kursk I believe) and moved to Ukraine a generation ago: he speaks mainly Russian. They live in a cooperative farming village, dual language, many Russians moved here some time ago. My wife's primary language was Russian in the village but she is fluent in both. At the village school the main teaching language is Ukrainian (well, it is Ukraine) but Russian was also heavily taught (actually, right now, because it's under Russian occupation, the Russian army are trying to enforce Russian only teaching, and do so with armed soldiers posted in the school...nice...).
In the village shop people would talk in their preferred language, there were zero problems. People would also watch both Russian and Ukrainian TV, and of course debate politics and possible propaganda statements. BUT they considered themselves brothers and sisters, no matter their different heritage. They might debate the % of Russian taught in the schools versus Ukrainian, and they might debate the changes of Ukrainian presidents and policies in recent decades, and they might disagree with each other, just as people disagree in the UK about political parties.
So, yes, some of them might have preferred an association with Russia, but any who felt really strongly about this would have moved to Russia already. I agree that Putin exploited these pockets (as in Georgia etc) but this one Zaporizhzhian farming village was quite happy the way it was, getting along with each other, nobody wanted to be 'rescued'.
We are aware of a couple of local collaborators who have chosen the Russians as the 'winning team'...inevitable, this will always happen. The vast majority are trying to live day by day, playing the game, staying alive, signing where they are told at gunpoint to sign.

As I said places where the Russians thought they would be welcomed because they had strong Russian cultures rejected them. When it came to it many 2nd and 3rd generation Russians (who moved there post the famine) are vehemently in favour of an independent Ukraine and are fighting to defend it. There were though in the east (Donbas) a much stronger pro Russian group who either were able to manipulate things whether that was because the local population were oppressed or just wanted more or really felt more Russian and Ukrainian (i don't know the answer) but Putin would not have been able to gain the foot hold without local support. Its the same in Moldova . The fact that Ukraine has survived despite terrible manpower losses shows the vast majority of the population don't want Russia taking over.

 

[Wardy's twin]

But it's worth remembering that having Russian as your primary language, doesn't mean you want the area you live in to be taken over by Russia. Or if I'm mistaken, England must own half the world.

Totally agree and the reality is that many 2nd/3rd generation Russians in Ukraine are fighting for Ukraine but I think the Donbas is slightly different , there were enough people who were happy for Russsia to take over and that is why he got a foothold for the conflicts from 2014 onwards. Again it does not have to be the majority it would take a small, vocal, militarised group to disseminate their views and force their way into power.

 

[raymondo]

As I said places where the Russians thought they would be welcomed because they had strong Russian cultures rejected them. When it came to it many 2nd and 3rd generation Russians (who moved there post the famine) are vehemently in favour of an independent Ukraine and are fighting to defend it. There were though in the east (Donbas) a much stronger pro Russian group who either were able to manipulate things whether that was because the local population were oppressed or just wanted more or really felt more Russian and Ukrainian (i don't know the answer) but Putin would not have been able to gain the foot hold without local support. Its the same in Moldova . The fact that Ukraine has survived despite terrible manpower losses shows the vast majority of the population don't want Russia taking over.

You may well be right; we don't have relatives or friends in the eastern Donbas so have less knowledge.

Putin will have exported hundreds or thousands of militants, many of them armed, to that region and it was apparently enough to gain that foothold.

 

[Wardy's twin]

Language didn’t determine people’s feeling of identity, which country they 100% felt part of. Even the overwhelming majority of Russian speakers happily consider themselves Russian-speaking Ukrainians.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...krainians-reject-their-russian-birth-language

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/07/ukraine-russian-speakers/

Pre the invasion, experts on the region often explained this.

True but to ignore importance of language and culture is to ignore part of the problem - Russia saw these areas as Russian speaking because many were 2nd & 3rd generation Russian. It sold the war to its people as an act liberation. The fact is most did not want liberating and the war has polarised feeling and many Russian speakers are fighting against Russia. It also denies the facts that in parts of the Donbas there was some feeling to go back to Russia be it a strong, vocal minority rather than the majority.

If you look at the voting patterns in Ukraine prior to the war 10% of the seats in their parliament were held by pro-Russia parties. Pro-Russia probably meant more links rather than take over but this is a young democracy formed 30 years ago so its politics are evolving - they have large numbers of parties which are often formed around a person rather than defined policy. Its also a country where 40%+ of the voters lived in the USSR and see it as it was a country of strength. the younger people look towards the west.

 

[Triggaaar]

As I said places where the Russians thought they would be welcomed because they had strong Russian cultures rejected them. When it came to it many 2nd and 3rd generation Russians (who moved there post the famine) are vehemently in favour of an independent Ukraine and are fighting to defend it.

Not sure if that's a typo, but surely the Russian descendants who have been in Ukraine for a few generations, are 2nd and 3rd generation Ukrainians, not Russians.

 

[essbee1]

The Russians are backward in every single aspect of life. Always was and always will be.

The sooner they realise they are pissing into the wind, the sooner this thing can end.

 

[GT49er]

But it's worth remembering that having Russian as your primary language, doesn't mean you want the area you live in to be taken over by Russia. Or if I'm mistaken, England must own half the world.

Not sure the language spoken by a minority should be a factor - or should I be worried about Gloucester being annexed by Poland, or Pakistan? (or several other states - we have several options available!)

Not sure if that's a typo, but surely the Russian descendants who have been in Ukraine for a few generations, are 2nd and 3rd generation Ukrainians, not Russians.

Well, that begs another question, doesn't it? Are second or third generations of, say, Jamaican or Indian descent livng in the UK British? - yes, of course they are, they are British citizens with British passports, they live and work and bring up families here - but do some still think of themselves as really [name any nation, Pakistan, Syria, Turkey, anywhere] nationals living in Britain?

..........and the short answer is, no, Russia had no right to 'liberate' Russian speaking Ukrainians livng happily and peacefully in Ukraine.

 

[Triggaaar]

Not sure the language spoken by a minority should be a factor - or should I be worried about Gloucester being annexed by Poland, or Pakistan? (or several other states - we have several options available!)

Well, that begs another question, doesn't it? Are second or third generations of, say, Jamaican or Indian descent livng in the UK British? - yes, of course they are, they are British citizens with British passports, they live and work and bring up families here - but do some still think of themselves as really [name any nation, Pakistan, Syria, Turkey, anywhere] nationals living in Britain?

..........and the short answer is, no, Russia had no right to 'liberate' Russian speaking Ukrainians livng happily and peacefully in Ukraine.

Exactly.

 

[sparkie]

I'm a bit concerned about the nuclear dirty bomb that Russia might well to set off. Madness.

It probably explains why the 101st Airborne and French ground forces are at the border near Odesa.

 

[raymondo]

I'm a bit concerned about the nuclear dirty bomb that Russia might well to set off. Madness.

It probably explains why the 101st Airborne and French ground forces are at the border near Odesa.

I didn't know the French were there too?
Yes, I think it's a present and visible deterrent to Russia... whether or not it will work though

 

[Wardy's twin]

Not sure if that's a typo, but surely the Russian descendants who have been in Ukraine for a few generations, are 2nd and 3rd generation Ukrainians, not Russian

Not sure if that's a typo, but surely the Russian descendants who have been in Ukraine for a few generations, are 2nd and 3rd generation Ukrainians, not Russians.

Not a typo it means they are Ukrainian but two or 3 generations previously they were Russian..

 

[sparkie]

Good stuff.

The team responsible for the targeting of the Russian missiles which have hit Ukrainian schools and civilian homes has now been identified and information on its members is starting to spread across the Internet.


I doubt it will end well for them in the next few years.

 

[Mackenzie]

Krasovsky: Russia bans 'burn Ukrainian kids' TV presenter

Russian state TV suspends a famous presenter - but its anti-Ukrainian rhetoric continues.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Triggaaar]

Not a typo it means they are Ukrainian but two or 3 generations previously they were Russian..

Then you've made a mistake. They are 2nd and 3rd generation Ukrainians. Americans, whose grandparents immigrated from Europe, are 3rd generation Americans.