[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[beorhthelm]

Russian military doctrine seems to be completely defeated by well known technology. they say an army is fighting the last war, in Russia's case its a couple back, WWII tactics which where outdated even then and relied on numbers. after Afganistan and a couple of near-failures, you'd thought they develop better, but nothing showing. it has been fascinating watching the use of drones, cheap, passive, with the ability to give local commanders vital intel on movements and direct battle. i dont think they'll learn while we do.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Putin's parade of non-combat-ready prototype tanks and big missile carriers in Moscow today.

Let's see what thunderous threats he makes in his speech.

And let's hope Vlad the Defiler announces mobilisation and hastens his own end :

[Tweet]1521850468313579520[/Tweet]

May 9th Part 2 :

[Tweet]1522196119589171202[/Tweet]

 

[jakarta]

Was in Moscow a few years back on a Tour (2nd leg Saint Petersburg) just before the Victory Parade. A country that celebrates it military so strongly is very strange - not quite like us selling Poppies before November 11 shall we say.

The lack of irony from the Russians who thought 'The Great Patriotic War' kicked off in 1941 rather than in 1939 when they stabbed Poland in the back, in complete concord with Nazi Germany and then cooperated with them until they were invaded, was staggering.

Can't deny that the Red Army beat the Germans to pulp 1943-45 but there was then set up a brutal (dare I say Fascist) dictatorship of their own in Eastern Europe for the next 40 years.

Our Russian Tour Guide told us with a completely straight face 'We are a large country, surrounded with other countries who don't particularly like us'.

I wish I had responded with 'Yes, that's because you invade them and butcher their people on a regular basis'

Staircase wit...

 

[A1X]

It's an absolute masterclass in micro-dick energy

 

[Super Steve Earle]

Some of the Generals barely have enough material for all the medal clobber on their chests. They look ridiculous.

 

[Eric the meek]

'In a rare public hearing, US official says neither side are winning'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61353374 19:27 10 May

'Ukraine war: Putin preparing for long haul, US intelligence says'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61402829

 

[The Clamp]

The only benefit I can think of, is that by publishing these things, (or saying them in the first place in the knowledge that they will be published in a free press), they ensure the Russians are aware of that particular capability of the US in warfare.

I remember the Sophie Raworth interview on 6 March, with Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, Chief of Staff, in which he divulged that we knew that Russia was going to invade Ukraine, several months before they actually did, i.e. before they even moved their troops to surround Ukraine. That meant that we (either the UK or the US, or both) were listening in to conversations, presumably at a high level, and presumably encrypted. Why would he divulge that? Again, the only reason I can think of, would be to tell the Russians that we know what they are up to.

The vast majority of intelligence comes from corrupt Russian spies and officials. An ex high ranking military official ( I forget which one) was being interviewed on the radio the other week and was asked how the West could get so much intelligence on Russia’s plans. His answer? “Because they are so easy to bribe”.

I Imagine making this public puts the heebies up Putin and further destabilises their fractured government. Putin brags that his underlings are fiercely loyal to him and Mother Russia. Going public with kind of thing shows the world they are clearly not.

 

[Eric the meek]

The vast majority of intelligence comes from corrupt Russian spies and officials. An ex high ranking military official ( I forget which one) was being interviewed on the radio the other week and was asked how the West could get so much intelligence on Russia’s plans. His answer? “Because they are so easy to bribe”.

I Imagine making this public puts the heebies up Putin and further destabilises their fractured government. Putin brags that his underlings are fiercely loyal to him and Mother Russia. Going public with kind of thing shows the world they are clearly not.

Hmmm. Obviously we get some of our intelligence from Russian officials, but the vast majority? Is that what the Russian military official said? Why would an ex high ranking Russian military official know how much of our intelligence we get from corrupt Russians? For him to know this, he would need to know 1) how much intelligence we glean from all our corrupt Russians, and 2) from other activities such as remote sensing. I think this is unlikely.

On the subject of intelligence, I took particular note that the US Intelligence service briefing, (in which it announced that neither side was winning), was made in public. This seems to be becoming a regular thing.

 

[The Clamp]

Hmmm. Obviously we get some of our intelligence from Russian officials, but the vast majority? Is that what the Russian military official said? Why would an ex high ranking Russian military official know how much of our intelligence we get from corrupt Russians? For him to know this, he would need to know 1) how much intelligence we glean from all our corrupt Russians, and 2) from other activities such as remote sensing. I think this is unlikely.

On the subject of intelligence, I took particular note that the US Intelligence service briefing, (in which it announced that neither side was winning), was made in public. This seems to be becoming a regular thing.

It was an ex member of the British Army.

 

[Eric the meek]

It was an ex member of the British Army.

Ah, I see. In that case, it could well be true!

 

[The Clamp]

Ah, I see. In that case, it could well be true!

He seemed very credible. He went on to say that really all you really need to spy and gather intelligence in Russia is deep pockets and access to the right people.

 

[Eric the meek]

He seemed very credible. He went on to say that really all you really need to spy and gather intelligence in Russia is deep pockets and access to the right people.

This is not exactly spying or intelligence gathering, but I read this on Bloomberg on 20 April:

'Kremlin Insiders Alarmed Over Growing Toll of Putin’s War in Ukraine'

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...e-has-russian-elites-fearing-global-isolation

At the time, I dismissed it as wishful thinking, questioning how Bloomberg would know the thoughts of Kremlin insiders. Now you've got me wondering.

 

[The Clamp]

This is not exactly spying or intelligence gathering, but I read this on Bloomberg on 20 April:

'Kremlin Insiders Alarmed Over Growing Toll of Putin’s War in Ukraine'

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...e-has-russian-elites-fearing-global-isolation

At the time, I dismissed it as wishful thinking, questioning how Bloomberg would know the thoughts of Kremlin insiders. Now you've got me wondering.

Interesting read. Yeah, information leaks out of the Kremlin constantly. I guess the real trick is deciding what is reliable, what is subterfuge and what is Russian officials trying to appear informed and important.
I read that when Putin goes into hospital to have abdominal cancer surgery, he won’t be coming out. That’d be nice.

 

[Eric the meek]

Interesting read. Yeah, information leaks out of the Kremlin constantly. I guess the real trick is deciding what is reliable, what is subterfuge and what is Russian officials trying to appear informed and important.
I read that it when Putin goes into hospital to have abdominal cancer surgery, he won’t be coming out. That’d be nice.

Indeed. Wouldn't that be nice. Although thinking about it, it might produce a dangerous power struggle.

I wonder (and this is based on no evidence at all), if he might take advantage of handing over the reins to Patrushev while in hospital, and disappear into the vastness of Siberia on a well-earned retirement.

 

[The Clamp]

Indeed. Wouldn't that be nice. Although thinking about it, it might produce a dangerous power struggle.

I wonder (and this is based on no evidence at all), if he might take advantage of handing over the reins to Patrushev while in hospital, and disappear into the vastness of Siberia on a well-earned retirement.

I can’t see him handing over power willingly, especially while he hasn’t achieved anything of empirical significance in Ukraine yet.

But who knows how these maniacs think! However, history has shown us that tyrannical butchers always foul up somewhere along the line. I think Ukraine is Putin’s undoing.

Ugh, I’m so bloody sick of horrible ****ers running the world. Humans; with our endless potential for love, invention and progress. We could be improving our planet. What do we do with all that potential? Destroy it and each other.
Would be better if humans died out and left earth to the flora and fauna. We are no good.

 

[Bold Seagull]

I can’t see him handing over power willingly, especially while he hasn’t achieved anything of empirical significance in Ukraine yet.

But who knows how these maniacs think! However, history has shown us that tyrannical butchers always foul up somewhere along the line. I think Ukraine is Putin’s undoing.

Ugh, I’m so bloody sick of horrible ****ers running the world. Humans; with our endless potential for love, invention and progress. We could be improving our planet. What do we do with all that potential? Destroy it and each other.
Would be better if humans died out and left earth to the flora and fauna. We are no good.

"Man has always assumed that he is more intelligent than dolphins because he has achieved so much--the wheel, New York, wars and so on -- while all the dolphins had ever done was muck about in the water having a good time. But, conversely, the dolphins had always believed that they were far more intelligent than man -- for precisely the same reasons."

 

[vegster]

Interesting read. Yeah, information leaks out of the Kremlin constantly. I guess the real trick is deciding what is reliable, what is subterfuge and what is Russian officials trying to appear informed and important.
I read that when Putin goes into hospital to have abdominal cancer surgery, he won’t be coming out. That’d be nice.

I'm not sure if the cancer story is true but, what a dilemma for Putin ! The sooner he has the surgery the better chance he has of recovery but....if he goes under anaesthetic he knows he may not wake up.

 

[raymondo]

I can’t see him handing over power willingly, especially while he hasn’t achieved anything of empirical significance in Ukraine yet.

But who knows how these maniacs think! However, history has shown us that tyrannical butchers always foul up somewhere along the line. I think Ukraine is Putin’s undoing.

Ugh, I’m so bloody sick of horrible ****ers running the world. Humans; with our endless potential for love, invention and progress. We could be improving our planet. What do we do with all that potential? Destroy it and each other.
Would be better if humans died out and left earth to the flora and fauna. We are no good.

Yes indeed. Our only saving grace may be having the potential to see and divert an earth destroying asteroid impact someday...thereby saving the flora and fauna ...temporarily.

 

[Eric the meek]

I'm not sure if the cancer story is true but, what a dilemma for Putin ! The sooner he has the surgery the better chance he has of recovery but....if he goes under anaesthetic he knows he may not wake up.

It didn't occur to me to look at it like that. Not only is he at risk from the anaesthetic and the surgery, but being under anaesthetic, he is also vulnerable to assassination attempts.

Imagine being a control freak, and paranoid that any number of random people will take a chance to keel heem.

The prospect of losing control, must be absolutely terrifying for him.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

I can’t see him handing over power willingly, especially while he hasn’t achieved anything of empirical significance in Ukraine yet.

But who knows how these maniacs think! However, history has shown us that tyrannical butchers always foul up somewhere along the line. I think Ukraine is Putin’s undoing.

Ugh, I’m so bloody sick of horrible ****ers running the world. Humans; with our endless potential for love, invention and progress. We could be improving our planet. What do we do with all that potential? Destroy it and each other.
Would be better if humans died out and left earth to the flora and fauna. We are no good.

As a species we're working very hard on this very project