[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Muhammad - I’m hard - Bruce Lee]

The only other way is total war with Russia, them falling and then we could go after war criminals.

If there's a world left

 

[Insel affe]

If there's a world left

exactly, which is why sadly we will back down.

 

[Baldseagull]

If possible, yes.

Unfortunately, that's unrealistic. Russia would not agree to it, they'd simply stop supplying the energy. I'm sure that works for you, but I don't think it works for the likes of Germany.

Maybe it is right now, but as things stand, Russia is looking at losing all EU custom within 2 years, forever. The EU believes it can cut dependency on Russian Oil and Gas by 2/3rds by this winter, if there was an alternative, where Russia still supplies, and can profit into the future by not forcing the EU to look elsewhere now as the only way to not fund Russias war, it may decide to agree to supply still, with say 30% going into escrow, if it turns off supply, it turns of the flow of EU cash into it's treasury completely, and forever. It is a hardball move, and Russia could decide to switch off supply, but in doing so it sanctions itself deeper than by agreeing, and beyond any cessation of hostilities.
From this side of things, if all Europe works together, reduce demand where we can, possibly increase North Sea extraction, and Bio Gas production from waste, even encourage domestic users to have shorter colder showers, turn the heating down 1 degree etc. we can get by, but we can't expect Germany to do it alone.

 

[Triggaaar]

Maybe it is right now, but as things stand, Russia is looking at losing all EU custom within 2 years, forever. The EU believes it can cut dependency on Russian Oil and Gas by 2/3rds by this winter, if there was an alternative, where Russia still supplies, and can profit into the future by not forcing the EU to look elsewhere now as the only way to not fund Russias war, it may decide to agree to supply still, with say 30% going into escrow, if it turns off supply, it turns of the flow of EU cash into it's treasury completely, and forever. It is a hardball move, and Russia could decide to switch off supply, but in doing so it sanctions itself deeper than by agreeing, and beyond any cessation of hostilities.

The EU saying they won't pay all the money to Russia would be a hardball move, and Russia replying 'we'll only supply what you pay for' would be an understandable response. You point out that it would turn off the cash flow to Russia, which is of course correct (not necessarily forever, things can easily change), but could Germany afford to do it? I'm not sure they could.

 

[Baldseagull]

The EU saying they won't pay all the money to Russia would be a hardball move, and Russia replying 'we'll only supply what you pay for' would be an understandable response. You point out that it would turn off the cash flow to Russia, which is of course correct (not necessarily forever, things can easily change), but could Germany afford to do it? I'm not sure they could.

I am not sure either, bit if they had the support of the rest of Europe, i.e. we all agree to take a hit on what we usually consume to allow Germany a portion of that so that it is not affected worse than anyone else, I think it is possible. There would be dissenting voices, but a bit of horse trading as is the norm with any EU wide agreement, could get it done.

 

[Eric the meek]

Putin must be under the most extraordinary pressure now.

He has fvcked up his own reputation (at least outside Russia), the reputation of his nation, its economy, its military capability, and its future influence and power.
He is far from certain of winning his 'special military operation' in Ukraine. He lost the peace long ago.

He is allegedly having surgery for abdominal cancer soon after the May 9 WW2 celebrations, a period during which he is apparently handing over the reins of power to Patrushev.
I wonder if it has crossed Putin's mind that this might be a good time to call it a day? All it would require is some 'complication' from the surgery, and he's off the hook, having vanished into Siberia somewhere to recuperate. Just a thought.

 

[raymondo]

Apologies if fixtures...lots of random fires and explosions in Russia recently
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blo...an-war-report-new-fires-and-alleged-sabotage/

 

[Baldseagull]

Apologies if fixtures...lots of random fires and explosions in Russia recently
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blo...an-war-report-new-fires-and-alleged-sabotage/

Not mentioned in that article, but I have also seen reports of Military recruiting offices being petrol bombed in various parts of Russia. It seems to be either people fearing mobilisation, and trying to hinder it, or retaliating for sending their sons to die in Ukraine. As I understand it, Russians are told that Conscripts are not sent to Ukraine, only soldiers that have signed a contract should be in combat officially, many of the captured soldiers say they are conscripts though, and their parents are told by the military that they signed contracts if they discover they are in Ukraine.

 

[cjd]

If there's a world left

Is a world like North Korea worth living in at all...?

We're all going to die one day. Living as an automoton though...? What's the point ?


Just a thought.

 

[Wardy's twin]

I don't see the solution coming from actions in Europe, the way I see it the way forward is to persuade China to give up on Russia , very difficult because of situation in Taiwan and more generally the South China sea but I can't see China benefitting from a World War they would I think prefer to grow their economy . If we 'turn' China then India & Pakistan will follow as they can afford to be isolated.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

I am not sure either, bit if they had the support of the rest of Europe, i.e. we all agree to take a hit on what we usually consume to allow Germany a portion of that so that it is not affected worse than anyone else, I think it is possible. There would be dissenting voices, but a bit of horse trading as is the norm with any EU wide agreement, could get it done.

That’s not how it works though. Germany as a nation does not buy any energy. These are commercial decisions based upon supply, demand and profitability and the EU also has no jurisdiction. It’s one thing imposing legal sanctions as a nation but quite another to impose a partial sanction based upon something like consumption over a group of nations.

 

[portslade seagull]

Deluded Russian media now accusing the Ukrainians of using Black magic which is now hindering the army's progress. I'll expect the brainwashed will soon cite this

 

[essbee1]

Putin must be under the most extraordinary pressure now.

He has fvcked up his own reputation (at least outside Russia), the reputation of his nation, its economy, its military capability, and its future influence and power.
He is far from certain of winning his 'special military operation' in Ukraine. He lost the peace long ago.

He is allegedly having surgery for abdominal cancer soon after the May 9 WW2 celebrations, a period during which he is apparently handing over the reins of power to Patrushev.
I wonder if it has crossed Putin's mind that this might be a good time to call it a day? All it would require is some 'complication' from the surgery, and he's off the hook, having vanished into Siberia somewhere to recuperate. Just a thought.

Bur Eric, we must be careful on here not to upset the 'apologists' who feel that we mustn't be too harsh on the Russian luvvies.

 

[half time scores]

Deluded Russian media now accusing the Ukrainians of using Black magic which is now hindering the army's progress. I'll expect the brainwashed will soon cite this

Milk tray didn't work then.

 

[Brovion]

I don't see the solution coming from actions in Europe, the way I see it the way forward is to persuade China to give up on Russia , very difficult because of situation in Taiwan and more generally the South China sea but I can't see China benefitting from a World War they would I think prefer to grow their economy . If we 'turn' China then India & Pakistan will follow as they can afford to be isolated.

I don't think we'll be able to 'persuade' China, but I think that whatever they're saying (or not saying) in public behind the scenes they must be concerned. Yes, they're anti-West, anti-America and by default will support the opposite side in any disagreement or conflict. Yes, they probably did feel that Putin had every right to launch a 'special operation' against Ukraine to liberate the country from an evil regime (which was their excuse for invading Tibet) and/or to pull back a recalcitrant people and country into the bosom of the motherland - which will be their excuse for invading Taiwan.

But surely their support doesn't extend to wanting to see WW3? I can't see them saying "Yeah fine Vlad. You've been forced into a corner so to save face you want to blow up half the world and poison the other half. Go right ahead!" Surely they want to take steps to stop that from happening?

However having said that I'm still not sure what they can do in public. If they do a complete 180 degree turn and start supporting Ukraine in word and deed it will just fuel Putin's paranoia that the whole world is against him and make WW3 more likely not less.

 

[raymondo]

Not mentioned in that article, but I have also seen reports of Military recruiting offices being petrol bombed in various parts of Russia. It seems to be either people fearing mobilisation, and trying to hinder it, or retaliating for sending their sons to die in Ukraine. As I understand it, Russians are told that Conscripts are not sent to Ukraine, only soldiers that have signed a contract should be in combat officially, many of the captured soldiers say they are conscripts though, and their parents are told by the military that they signed contracts if they discover they are in Ukraine.

Yes, that all sounds very possible. Ukraine are also putting conscripts on/very near the front line. I know that because our 2 teenage Ukrainian nieces came to live with us a month ago (thank goodness). The boyfriend (21 years) of the older niece initially volunteered for an army kitchen facility sending fresh hot food to the front line. Then he was told he was to receive gun training and be sent to the eastern front. He and his mate said 'you can't do that, we are not signed up and don't have army papers ' ( necessary for eg family payment in case of death). Next day the group captain brought them army papers...and they are now at the front. More willingly than the Russian conscripts...but nevertheless.

 

[Eric the meek]

Bur Eric, we must be careful on here not to upset the 'apologists' who feel that we mustn't be too harsh on the Russian luvvies.

We had a few of those earlier on in the thread, who assumed the high moral ground and tried to blame the war on Nato expansion. They no longer post on here.

But they did take a long time to read the room. Perhaps it was the genocide, or the ethnic cleansing, or the war crimes uncovered after the Russians withdrew from Kyiv, that helped them decide it was becoming too awkward to keep blaming Nato.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

I don't think we'll be able to 'persuade' China, but I think that whatever they're saying (or not saying) in public behind the scenes they must be concerned. Yes, they're anti-West, anti-America and by default will support the opposite side in any disagreement or conflict. Yes, they probably did feel that Putin had every right to launch a 'special operation' against Ukraine to liberate the country from an evil regime (which was their excuse for invading Tibet) and/or to pull back a recalcitrant people and country into the bosom of the motherland - which will be their excuse for invading Taiwan.

But surely their support doesn't extend to wanting to see WW3? I can't see them saying "Yeah fine Vlad. You've been forced into a corner so to save face you want to blow up half the world and poison the other half. Go right ahead!" Surely they want to take steps to stop that from happening?

However having said that I'm still not sure what they can do in public. If they do a complete 180 degree turn and start supporting Ukraine in word and deed it will just fuel Putin's paranoia that the whole world is against him and make WW3 more likely not less.

Fair comment that they are anti west. However they have a huge vested interest in the west not entering total war with Russia. Ie we'll be less able to continually purchase the cheap tat they manufacture, if we're fully geared for war, commercial shipping lanes are unusable etc. They won't want serious escalation.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

We had a few of those earlier on in the thread, who assumed the high moral ground and tried to blame the war on Nato expansion. They no longer post on here.

But they did take a long time to read the room. Perhaps it was the genocide, or the ethnic cleansing, or the war crimes uncovered after the Russians withdrew from Kyiv, that helped them decide it was becoming too awkward to keep blaming Nato.

I fully support Nato actions, but i'm still very happy to hear from those who take a different view. Echo chambers don't help anyone

 

[Wardy's twin]

I don't think we'll be able to 'persuade' China, but I think that whatever they're saying (or not saying) in public behind the scenes they must be concerned. Yes, they're anti-West, anti-America and by default will support the opposite side in any disagreement or conflict. Yes, they probably did feel that Putin had every right to launch a 'special operation' against Ukraine to liberate the country from an evil regime (which was their excuse for invading Tibet) and/or to pull back a recalcitrant people and country into the bosom of the motherland - which will be their excuse for invading Taiwan.

But surely their support doesn't extend to wanting to see WW3? I can't see them saying "Yeah fine Vlad. You've been forced into a corner so to save face you want to blow up half the world and poison the other half. Go right ahead!" Surely they want to take steps to stop that from happening?

However having said that I'm still not sure what they can do in public. If they do a complete 180 degree turn and start supporting Ukraine in word and deed it will just fuel Putin's paranoia that the whole world is against him and make WW3 more likely not less.

I guess they could get him to cut his losses - if he declares a ceasefire now Ukraine would be portrayed as the aggressor if they continue as they always have been in the Russian narrative. He holds a big chunk of Ukraine so has 'won' and Ukraine will have economic issues by losing those areas so he can say they won. The war potentially stops so no threat of WW3. China gets kudos for being a peace maker. Going forward the ceasefire is just that with no agreement and persistent low level (relative term) attrition as had been happening prior to February 24th ....