[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Yoda]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...emns-russian-tv-for-nuclear-attack-simulation

Bit of daytime TV in Russia. Lovely stuff

Unless they have something along the lines of the Tsar Bomb, then I don't believe an underwater nuclear explosion would cause a tsumami. For all the underwater testing done in the 50's & 60's, no significant wave was recorded and it was theorised (but never tested) you would need a line of bombs to create a wave.

 

[Baldseagull]

Nuclear threats are aimed at undermining popular support for Western Governments to aid Ukraine militarily. It will not work well in Europe, but may have an effect on Americans, where they have twats like Tucker Carlson and other commentators, building that propaganda up, and arguing against support for Ukraine, that it is just democrats trying to get back at Putin for aiding Trumps campaign in 2016, which they also try to claim didn't happen, no evidence for it apparently, as opposed to all the evidence they say exists, but no one has seen, that Trump was robbed at the last election.

If we cannot stand against Russia when we feel it is right to do so, because of their nuclear capability, then we are saying that we don't believe that our nuclear deterrent is an effective deterrent, and we might as well not have it.

 

[Baldseagull]

I think that to end the war we need to up sanctions, as much as weaponry. We (UK and EU) should look at countries to make payments for energy to an escrow account that Russia will not receive until it withdraws troops from Ukraine. When troops leave, Russia gets it's money, minus deductions for rebuilding Ukrainian infrastructure, though those deductions might need to be relatively small and ongoing, so as not to cripple Russia after it has ceased hostilities. The more they destroy cities, the greater loss to Russian future income.
Russia may decide to try and sell it's resources elsewhere, but it is not so easy, capacity to store or use oil or Gas elsewhere is limited, even if he has a willing buyer, they may just not be able to take it.

 

[Triggaaar]

I think that to end the war we need to up sanctions, as much as weaponry.

If possible, yes.

We (UK and EU) should look at countries to make payments for energy to an escrow account that Russia will not receive until it withdraws troops from Ukraine. When troops leave, Russia gets it's money, minus deductions for rebuilding Ukrainian infrastructure, though those deductions might need to be relatively small and ongoing, so as not to cripple Russia after it has ceased hostilities.

Unfortunately, that's unrealistic. Russia would not agree to it, they'd simply stop supplying the energy. I'm sure that works for you, but I don't think it works for the likes of Germany.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

I think that to end the war we need to up sanctions, as much as weaponry. We (UK and EU) should look at countries to make payments for energy to an escrow account that Russia will not receive until it withdraws troops from Ukraine. When troops leave, Russia gets it's money, minus deductions for rebuilding Ukrainian infrastructure, though those deductions might need to be relatively small and ongoing, so as not to cripple Russia after it has ceased hostilities. The more they destroy cities, the greater loss to Russian future income.
Russia may decide to try and sell it's resources elsewhere, but it is not so easy, capacity to store or use oil or Gas elsewhere is limited, even if he has a willing buyer, they may just not be able to take it.

Russia ideally also needs to extradite soldiers with cases against them for war crimes for trial in The Hague as part of any deal to lift some of the sanctions.

 

[Insel affe]

Russia ideally also needs to extradite soldiers with cases against them for war crimes for trial in The Hague as part of any deal to lift some of the sanctions.

Never going to happen, ever.

They would lose to much face, it is tantamount to admitting to war crimes, the Russian public would start to ask questions, Putin will not let that happen.

This is a special operation remember

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Never going to happen, ever.

In that case I'd suggest some of the sanctions are never going to end, ever - or at least until the potential criminals are dead.

 

[The Clamp]

Putin must die. They will get him. He will never be allowed to live after this. Sooner rather than later with any luck.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Never going to happen, ever.

They would lose to much face, it is tantamount to admitting to war crimes, the Russian public would start to ask questions, Putin will not let that happen.

This is a special operation remember

Evidence is being collected, and cases are being built. At least 1 of the accused is publicly named.

Lifting some ( not all ) of the sanctions must be linked to a list of the accused undergoing trials for their alleged deeds.

 

[Insel affe]

In that case I'd suggest some of the sanctions are never going to end, ever.

The only way that could happen is a total regime change at the top, which is highly unlikely as too many folk have too much to lose if Putin and his gangster cronies fall.

You will only swap one mad man for another at this present time.

We need a mass willingness of the Russian public to want regime change, and although they are being fed state propaganda, the sad thing is that is not evident yet.

The Russian people are fiercely nationalistic, that will take years of progress they can see to change.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Putin must die. They will get him. He will never be allowed to live after this. Sooner rather than later with any luck.

---

Must but won't. At least not by assassination.

We need to get real and deal with the fact that he's likely to be around for a good while longer, and even after he dies, his successor will be hand picked and no better

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

The only way that could happen is a total regime change at the top, which is highly unlikely as too many folk have too much to lose if Putin and his gangster cronies fall.

You will only swap one mad man for another at this present time.

We need a mass willingness of the Russian public to want regime change, and although they are being fed state propaganda, the sad thing is that is not evident yet.

The Russian people are fiercely nationalistic, that will take years of progress they can see to change.

The criminals don't get to walk away free from War Crimes in Bucha etc.

Some sanction lifting can be linked to appearances in court for the alleged perpetrators.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

The criminals don't get to walk away free from War Crimes in Bucha etc.

Some sanction lifting can be linked to appearances in court for the alleged perpetrators.

There is no chance whatsoever that The Kremlin will agree to this, sanctions lifting or not.

Soldiers appearing would be able to plausibly and truthfully say that their actions were approved from the very top.

Those crimes will go unpunished

 

[Triggaaar]

The only way that could happen is a total regime change at the top, which is highly unlikely as too many folk have too much to lose if Putin and his gangster cronies fall.

I'm not sure it's that unlikely in the next few years. His health is also quite questionable.

You will only swap one mad man for another at this present time.

Well that is certainly another worry.

 

[Triggaaar]

There is no chance whatsoever that The Kremlin will agree to this, sanctions lifting or not.

Soldiers appearing would be able to plausibly and truthfully say that their actions were approved from the very top.

Those crimes will go unpunished

I agree with your point, except that soldiers saying that they were following orders will not count as an excuse. 'I was ordered to rape and torture people, and fire at civilians'. Too bad.

 

[Insel affe]

The criminals don't get to walk away free from War Crimes in Bucha etc.

Some sanction lifting can be linked to appearances in court for the alleged perpetrators.

In an ideal world yes, but this is not an ideal world, you don't want to hear this but, unless the entire regime falls in Russia, these crimes will go unpunished, there is no, absolutely no way Russia will admit to any wrong doing.
The only people involved in this that could possible be used as scapegoats by the Russians would be Chechen's or other outside mercenaries used by them.

With that excuse Russians can still stand tall as honourable soldiers on a special mission, to save Russia against Nazi extremists.

 

[The Clamp]

I read the other day he has already named an interim ruler while he goes in for cancer treatment. A real nasty, hardline ****er who persuaded Putin that Ukraine was a nest of Nazis.

Reported in a number of media outlets but absolutely not confirmed.

Putin to go for surgery, hand over temporary power to ex-KGB chief: Report



https://wap.business-standard.com/a...er-to-ex-kgb-chief-report-122050100463_1.html

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

There is no chance whatsoever that The Kremlin will agree to this, sanctions lifting or not.

Soldiers appearing would be able to plausibly and truthfully say that their actions were approved from the very top.

Those crimes will go unpunished

All I'm saying is that some sanctions need to be tied to war criminals facing trial ( obviously Putin going on trial is a step too far ).

Then it would simply be that those sanctions don't get lifted without the trials.

Whether the Kremlin agrees or not - the subset of sanctions should be linked to trials of Bucha perpetrators etc. The Kremlin gets no say in the linking - the say is whether they want those particular sanctions lifted or not.


I was under the impression "Just following orders" is no valid defence for war crimes

 

[portslade seagull]

Hopefully the heavier armour now promised and being delivered helps the push the ruskies back

 

[Insel affe]

All I'm saying is that some sanctions need to be tied to war criminals facing trial ( obviously Putin on trial is a step too far ).

Then it would simply be that those sanctions don't get lifted without the trials.

Whether the Kremlin agrees or not - the subset of sanctions should be linked. The Kremlin gets no say.

I get your passion and if I am correct you have close family involved in this terrible event, but you must also see the Kremlin cannot be seen to back down, and unfortunately huge amounts of money and products we all use are at stake and concessions will be made to the detriment of the poor Ukrainian people who are suffering to bring Russia back in line and under control.

The only other way is total war with Russia, them falling and then we could go after war criminals.